The Los Angeles Kings will clash with the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton to start game one for the third year in a row. It's quite the trilogy that has gone one way for back-to-back years. The Kings couldn't close out the Oilers in 2022 and let a 2-1 series lead fall apart in three straight games.
This series is a pivotal moment for both teams, representing a significant crossroads for the Kings' direction moving forward. The Oilers, having made notable upgrades from last year, are a force to be reckoned with. The Oilers are Cup or bust, breaking through to the conference finals two seasons ago and then the semifinals the next. Both series lost to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions. Meanwhile, despite their significant move in the offseason to acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Kings never maintained their early season form and footing with their 16-4-4 run to start the year. Management will have to be gauged on if they can't break through one round, after designing this team for a cup run.
The Kings' two biggest stars entering this series, Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, are holdovers from the championship heyday. They are both in the twilight of their careers at 36 and 34 respectively. Each year, their play is expected to decline due to the relentless march of time. Yet, both players have defied expectations, maintaining their high level of play and fierce competition. Doughty, in particular, has shined, producing one of his best goal-scoring seasons since his career-high 16-goal season in 09-10.
Each player, so deep into their Hall of Fame career, will have another arduous task for a third consecutive year. Facing off against the game's most remarkable talent, and oh yeah, Leon Draisaitl.
The more glaring issue in the past two seasons has been health, as Edmonton has been remarkably healthy in the past two postseasons. This year, Evander Kane, a power forward who ate the Kings alive in the 2021-22 postseason, will likely play through a significant injury. The Kings, on the other hand, are coming into the postseason to play Edmonton the healthiest they have been across their last two postseason meetings. This bodes well for their chances, instilling a sense of hope and optimism in the Kings' faithful.
Does that entirely matter, however?
The Kings will likely match up Danault against McDavid and Kopitar against Draisaitl. Those are two players who will eventually eat up the scoresheet. Like the last two postseasons, the series will be decided on the Kings' depth. The collective performance of the Kings' roster, from the first line to the fourth, will determine their fate. It's not just about individual matchups, but about the team's ability to rise together.
Last year, the third and fourth lines were mixed bags. Gabriel Vilardi made a massive impact once he came back from injury, and the same goes for Kevin Fiala, who posted six points in his three games of the series (1-5-6) but all during losses. Both players were in the bottom six during that series and couldn't turn the tide.
As today starts the series, Kevin Fiala is back in the bottom six to start game one, and instead of Vilardi (who looked not too shabby in game one of his series last night), they will deploy Dubois. It is not Danault or Kopitar who will win the series for the Kings; it will come down to Fiala and Dubois.
The Oilers can and will adjust to the 11-7 or the broken 29-97 combination that has become virtually unstoppable. The format has broken down the Kings in both playoff losses in the last two years.
Can the Kings deploy the same to combat the Oiler's secret weapon? The Kings 11-7 saw excellent results after the All-Star break, as players like Quinton Byfield, Fiala, and Adrian Kempe (the best three wingers for the Kings) became rovers on any line. While you don't want to get into track meet with these Oilers, combating them with their recipe could either be a fool's errand or an effective strategy to push back.
Fiala has already proven to eat up the Oilers come playoff time. Kempe broke out in a significant way concerning his play in the playoffs in the last two postseasons. Byfield acts as a question mark. If he plays like he did during the Chicago game, he could shift the series into favoring the Kings. As covered in excess, few players in the league have his speed, size, and hockey IQ.
Reality Check
The Kings will have to play with leads to have any chance of winning this series. The 1-3-1 is just not designed to come from behind. All Kings fans know the frustration of watching this team sit back and not forecheck the last two postseasons while the Oilers took their time, sat back, regrouped, reloaded, killing the clock.
The penalty kill has significantly improved, while the power Play has dropped off. The power play did improve from the All-Star break, but it is not the same top-five ower Play that did damage to the Oilers last year. The Kings allowed three power-play goals against the Oilers in four games this year. They were 3/13, suitable for 23.7%, which is close to their overall season rate of 26.3%.
The Diamond formation forces players to make perfect shots on or near the goal line. Fortunately for the Oilers, you have two players who operate from that spot and can make those shots with deadly precision. Don't forget Zach Hyman parking in front of the goaltender, who was third in the league in goals with 54. Draisaitl and Hyman combined for 36 power-play goals during the regular season.
The King's penalty kill, which has improved to be near or atop the league for most of the season, will have a stout task for the third straight year to limit the chances the Oilers have to take over the series. Last year, the Oilers went 9/16 against the Kings (56%). The series prior, they went 7/19 (36.8%). It goes without saying, but penalties will sink the series for the Kings, as they are already going in as underdogs.
The Kings lack the star power to match the Oilers' star power. The Kings' depth on paper should be able to win the series, but their depth has been wildly inconsistent and also unhealthy all year.
They acquired Dubois for this moment, but how does he play, given his poor output this year?
The goal for this series is to win the round, and it should be clearly taken game by game. But if there ever was a secondary or tertiary goal, it is to get Byfield to log big minutes. He's the future of the franchise, and he was largely pushed around the last two years.
For Byfield and the Kings it unfortunately it looks like a series that might be out of reach for the third straight year.
The reality is that the Oilers will be too much again for the Kings. The Kings will, or rather should, let heads roll during the offseason. Rob Blake will either look like a genius for holding pat all year, standing by his Dubois acquisition, or he will be looking for new work come summer.
Oilers in six.