
Arguably the Los Angeles Kings' greatest-ever player, Anze Kopitar has remained a productive force deep into his 30s.
Last season was the first time since 2016-17 that Kopitar didn't lead the team in points and only the third time in his 18-season career that he hasn't led the Kings in points.
However, a regression could be on the horizon for the future Hall-of-Famer.
Before getting into that, let me clarify that a regression for Kopitar doesn't mean he'll be bad next season. He'll still be a good top-six forward and one of the best defensive centers in the league.
After returning to the 70-point mark two seasons ago, Kopitar returned with another 70-point season last campaign and didn't show many signs of slowing down, at least on the surface.
But when you pop the hood, you can see the regression has already begun.
According to Allthreezones tracking data, Kopitar's chance creation has already begun to dip.
He created fewer shots, fewer high-danger chances and fewer total shots last season compared to the season before.
Kopitar also wasn't the driver on his line last season. Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe took more of that role, particularly Byfield, who was a zone entry and chance creation monster for LA last season.
Kopitar was still an important piece to that line's success, but he took on more of a complementary role than a leading one last season.
The expected loss of Byfield on his line will hurt Kopitar because of this. Kempe proved he can be a play driver, but without Byfield that line loses its driving force.
Kopitar also saw a noticeable dip in even-strength production, going from 53 even-strength points two seasons ago to 44 last season.
Shooting at a career-high 19% and scoring a team-high 7.8 goals above expected also raises some concerns about his goal-scoring moving forward.
Can he sustain a shooting percentage and goals above expected rate that only the league's most elite scorers can consistently? Maybe, but likely not.
Kopitar's step back in play driving and chance creation, his potentially unsustainable shooting last season and the loss of Byfield on his line will likely cause a dip in production.
He'll still be a very good player and a leader for this Kings team, but don't be shocked if players like Fiala, Kempe and even Byfield begin to pull away with the team lead in points.
Father Time is undefeated and heading into his 37-year-old season, Kopitar will have to face him eventually. Again, there won't be a titanic drop-off, but the numbers suggest a steady regression for Kopitar next season.