LOS ANGELES, CA— From just a quick observation and analysis of the first Draft under new General Manager Ken Holland, things have been massively underwhelming and borderline disappointing for the Los Angeles Kings, especially if the expectation for this ‘contending team’ was to upgrade. Trading away Jordan Spence for two picks (3rd and a 2026 6th rounder) and trading down twice to stockpile two extra picks certainly let out a prolonged sigh. Also, no positive updates have come from either camp regarding Vladislav Gavrikov, as the stalwart defenseman looks to be heading into free agency. 

The movement of players and picks to acquire more assets through the Draft hardly promotes the idea that this team is "contending" now, but rather, cautiously rebuilding its prospect cupboard, with Holland making his first order of business to conduct some housekeeping and regenerate a pipeline that has withered. If playing the long game, that’s all fine and dandy. In the short term, the defensive corps has glaring holes, and the Kings will need to address these through free agency or trade despite potentially having to part with a quality asset (despite a lack thereof) to secure an impactful trade. Free agency and player retention is now the probable route.

With the Draft now behind us, I continue my promise on social media to conduct my own analysis on Andrei Kuzmenko, an internal option holdover from last season, whose contract is still up in the air. For the Kings and Kuzmekno, a decision needs to be made on whether this retention should be necessary.

First, a quick rewind. All eyes were on past GM Rob Blake to make a splash at the deadline last season to improve the team, solidify their footing in the Pacific Division, and also threaten to break out of the first round for the first time since the team won it all back in 2014. Well, as much as Kings' fans far and wide expected a major splash, such as a Brock Boeser (from a divisional rival that should be available this offseason), they got Kuzmenko from Philadelphia for a 3rd-round pick in 2027, set to join his third team of the 2024-25 season.

Kuzmenko, while not the flashiest pickup of all time, ignited a poor power play and solidified the 'on paper' top line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. While not as electric as he was in his first season as a Canuck, he looked to shed the poor seasons in Calgary and Philly, as his presence was immediately felt on special teams. The powerplay would end up scoring the second-most goals in the league in the final 20 games, only beaten out by the skill-laden Colorado Avalanche. 

Kuzmenko finished the regular season with 5g, 12a, for 17 points as a +6 in 22 games. Equate that out to 19 goals, 45 assists, 63 points, +22 over an 82-game season. That equation may shift dramatically when considering that Kuzmenko was a point-per-game player in his final 17 games of the season. To my eyes, it looked as if the Kings found a more than competent replacement to the production they lost in the form of Viktor Arvidsson, who, at his peak in LA, posted 59 points in 77 games back in 2022-23, while the team's powerplay production that season was the best the franchise had seen in the cap era. 

In Kuzmenko, with the cap continuing to rise, there's easily a $5.5 million player there, if not more, just based on projection and 22-game sample output.

In fact, his line featuring Kopitar and Kempe gave some legitimate hope for future output regarding their regular-season performance. It was not identical, but it was similar to the rates of Kuzmenko's first season in Vancouver, lined up next to Swedish star center Elias Pettersson in 2022-23 when he cashed in 39 goals:

With the right linemates, this is easily a consistent 60-point player— but how about when the play really mattered? 

Kuzmenko's first time playing in the playoffs thoroughly waters down that notion, as he was on a line that became a boat anchor in the King's path to sailing out of the first round. Outside of Kempe's individual performances in the first three games, the line was caved in, or rather, victimized for the vast majority of the series. 

Since there were only three line combinations for LA that broke the double-digit mark in time on ice together in their six-game exit, it makes it even easier to see. The Phillip Danault line, playing shutdown minutes, did its job with high marks. The Quinton Byfield line, or rather, the true top line, was the only positive scoring chance and possession line, and, like the Danault line, outscored the opposition while managing a more strict shot-for/against margin. 

Kuzmenko, while certainly playing with the best forward on the roster in Kempe, was saddled with a center who struggled most of the series. After games two and three, Oilers Head Coach Kris Knoblauch didn't even need to chase the matchup to this line, moving Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid elsewhere. Even with the last change at home, Kuzmenko's line was waxed. On the road, it was much worse:

The 'top line' folded up at even strength after game two. If not for the Danault and Byfield lines, this series could have been much uglier. Realistically, Danault and his linemates were the real heroes of this fourth consecutive postseason failure, seeing the vast majority of even-strength minutes against the yearly go-to nuclear option for Edmonton:

Great 22-game sample, but a really poor six-game flare out. However, it is tough to make a decision based on the postseason play when the blame shouldn't be directly on the acquired forward. The stance can be that Kopitar's wingers weren't good enough or that the center between the wings couldn't keep up with the competition. There's even an argument against Head Coach Jim Hiller and his coaching during their playoff flop. I also don't believe a 37-year-old should be facing off against two of the best players in the game, two historically dominant postseason performers, while in their prime.

The organization fully stands behind their future Hall of Famer and supplied him with their trade deadline acquisition in Kuzmenko, but really, only kept him in that spot. Kuzmenko saw 230:27 minutes of Kopitar at even strength during the regular season and only 47:16 away from him. 

In the playoffs, it was 69:31 with and 9:58 away. There just wasn't a regular occurrence to try something other than the aging Kings' legend as his center. Sure, the regular season results looked impressive at even strength, which was boosted by his five helpers on the man advantage. In the postseason, he had only two helpers at even strength in six games. Four of his six points were on the man advantage, as he would not score a goal at even strength in the series.

So I ask: Can the organization really stand behind this player as a $5-6 million dollar investment?

If there's a $5.5-6 2-year deal for a player who can threaten 20 goals and boost the power play into the league's top ten, then absolutely go for it. The problem is that the sample size is too small for complete, conclusive proof. With the aging of Kopitar, production would have to be shifted to another center. Swapping centers with their future cornerstone in Byfield could form an electric line with Kempe at the opposite wing, paying for a cheaper in-house option to upgrade the team.

That all might be moot, as the Kings may be unwilling to move Kempe off Kopitar's wing, being firmly committed to the idea that Kopitar remains an elite center. Add that to the fact that Byfield is the only high-end center on the roster that gels with Kevin Fiala, and we can see the impasse of next season despite a clear opportunity to upgrade team production internally. Another layer of indecision over Kuzmenko is the fact that the Kings are looking to add, either through trade or a frenzy of free agency, a forward who may better fit their style moving into the Holland era.

Kuzmenko may not be the game breaking player the Kings need to elevate over the Oilers but is undoubtedly an attractive option price-wise when compared to chasing the longshot of a 100-point, $14+ million player in Mitch Marner, who, if landed in Los Angeles, might see a massive drop-off in point production playing their defensive-minded system versus playing with a perennial Rocket Richard player and other high-end stars in Toronto. It might be challenging to justify his price tag when he's only able to score 70-80 points in LA while the team is still wallowing in the first round of the playoffs.

The two camps between Kuzmenko and the Kings appear to be in alignment over a short-term contract, which indicates comfort with the player's fit and the team's overall vision. With Vladislav Gavrikov potentially walking into free agency, the Kings could certainly utilize a contract of less than seven million dollars for a player who has 60+ consistent upside when paired with the right players and a well-received special teams boost. 

With his contract locked in, the Kings will still have plenty of cap space to make further moves instead of chasing a pipe dream. The Kings should get another forward without a massive price tag to play alongside a former star, Kopitar, to play a depth role and let the trio of Kuzmenko, Byfield, and Kempe ‘let fly.' Kuzmenko, on a short-term contract, should stay a King if only to fit the proper schematic.

Prior Sunday Thoughts Series: Changing of the Guard