Looking at the numbers: How much of a problem is the Wild's defense right now?
The Wild currently hold a 3-3-2 record on the year through eight games played and have allowed the second highest goals allowed per game in the NHL at 4.13 only trailing the Edmonton Oilers at 4.29 GA/GP.
Minnesota was a top five team in the NHL last season in fewest expected goals against allowed. Only the Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, and Dallas Stars had a better xGA/60 than the Wild.
This year it is the exact opposite. The Wild are tied for eighth in the NHL in worst xGA/60 behind the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, St. Louis Blues, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Wild's eight worst xGA/60 tells me their second highest GA allowed this season is pretty accurate and they aren't getting lucky. They just flat out have been allowing too many goals this year.
They are also rank as the seventh worst in the NHL in CA/60 at 63.56 whereas last year the Wild ranked in the middle of the NHL at 17. Corsi is the number of shooting attempts taken. Which means Corsi is shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots.
I personally believe Fenwick is better than Corsi when you want to project a team or player's future or predict what will happen as the season goes on. So let's look at that. Fenwick is the same as Corsi but it doesn't account for blocked shots. Instead it takes into account shots that hit the post and shots that miss the net but are unblocked.
The Wild currently sit with the eighth worst Fenwick against in the NHL. Last year the Wild ranked as the 13th best in FA/60. But when you look at the Wild's defense core this year, it is relatively the same defensemen as last years.
You can also see in Jfresh's chart of 5v5 team stats on xGF% the Wild aren't far behind the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks.
Losing Matt Dumba from the blue line and replacing him with Brock Faber wasn't viewed as a downgrade but rather a possible upgrade so with the rest of the defensemen from last year returning this year, I guess it doesn't make sense why the Wild have allowed the third highest shots per game and the second highest goals allowed.
It isn't just the defenseman, although they can be the easiest to blame. The Wild currently rank below the 50th percentile in time on ice spent in the offensive zone and rank 27th in the NHL in that category, according to NHLEdge.
This will need to be turned around quickly if the Wild want to make the playoffs and go far in the playoffs. I can't imagine that spending lots of time in the defensive zone and so little time in the offensive zone will be a good recipe for winning a Stanley cup.
But for how little the Wild have spent time in the offensive zone, they still rank fifth in the NHL in goals scored this season at 29 so more time spent in the offensive zone for the Wild will theoretically provide even more goals.
Minnesota just needs to get pucks out of the defensive zone quickly. I know it sounds easy to just say spend less time in the defensive zone and you'll be fine. The fact is the Wild have had too many games with failed zone exits that lead to more chances for the opposition and defensive zone turnovers which is never a good recipe for success.
In the Wild's 7-3 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on October 19th the Wild recorded 11 failed zone exits and two of which led to Kings goals. I have tracked five of the Wild's first eight games this year and have recorded 54 failed zone exits. Which is 10.8 per game.
The Wild still have the talent on this team to turn it around and the leadership to do so as well, it isn't panic time yet. Jared Spurgeon and Matt Boldy should be returning soon which should provide a spark to this struggling Wild team and hopefully result in better play.
All stats via Evolving Hockey and NHL Edge. Zone exits stats tracked by Dylan Loucks.