How Adin Hill's New Deal Affects Minnesota Wild's Filip Gustavsson's Next Contract

The Minnesota Wild's No. 1 priority this summer is RFA goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who is under team control but remains without a contract as of July 1. With him unsigned, the Wild don't know how much they can truly spend elsewhere — namely RFA defenseman Calen Addison, forward Brandon Duhaime and any other depth pieces to fill the rest of the lineup. 

After all, the budget is set at $7.293 million, according to Puckpedia, with the expectation of Marco Rossi and Brock Faber making the team out of camp.

This is a unique situation with Gustavsson this summer, especially because the Swede has arbitration rights. The recently turned 25-year-old broke out last season after the Wild acquired him last summer in a one-for-one trade that sent Cam Talbot to the Ottawa Senators. 

He not only outperformed expectations and proved he can be a quality starter, but his numbers were among the best in the league. The Wild received unworldly value out of Gustavsson, who made just $787,500.

Gustavsson went 22-9-7 and earned three shutouts in the process. Most importantly, he ranked second in save percentage (.931), third in goals saved above average (30.4) and seventh in goals saved above expected (24.54), according to Evolving-Hockey.

That's what makes things so tricky for negotiations. On one hand, he did everything and more. But on the other hand, it's just one year and he needs to prove he can do it again. That's especially true because of the flukiness of the position and the short list of goalies who can maintain elite numbers over a multi-year span.

That brings us to Adin Hill, who recently signed a two-year, $9.8 million contract extension worth $4.9 million annually with the Vegas Golden Knights. 

Now, this isn't an apples to apples situation. Hill is 27 and had been a pending UFA who could have tested the market, while Gustavsson is younger and under team control, even though he does have arbitration rights. 

Both saw breakouts years as Hill finished with a .915 save percentage in the regular season before posting a .932 save percentage and saving just over 13 goals above expected during Vegas' Stanley Cup run. Gustavsson had a .921 save percentage and saved 3.25 goals above expected in the postseason.

But what's important about Hill's extension is the fact that he helped the Knights win the Stanley Cup while posting elite numbers along the way, which ended with him finishing third in Conn Smythe Trophy voting. There's no question that teams will be using him as a comparable this summer. 

Projecting Gustavsson's next contract is tricky since he only has one elite season on his resume. AFP Analytics' contract projection for Gustavsson is either a one-year deal at about $3.16 million or three years at about $4.24 million.

But it's difficult to believe Gustavsson will get anywhere in the $4 million range now with a Stanley Cup Champion at $4.9 million annually — even if it's a three-year deal. And remember, the Knights bought two of Hill's UFA years. Gustavsson doesn't have that same leverage of testing the market since he's under team control, although, again, he can elect for arbitration.

Hill's recent contract extension could be a key piece for the Wild now in negotiations with their No. 1 starter in Gustavsson. One would think that Gustavsson's next contract will be in the low-to-mid $3 million range.

Hill is just one of the first dominos to fall in the goaltender landscape. There's plenty of UFA goalies that could impact market value and potential negotiations for goalies like Gustavsson and other RFA's in IIya Samsonov (TOR) and Jeremy Swayman (BOS). RFA MacKenzie Blackwood just signed a two-year deal today with the San Jose Sharks worth $2.35 million annually.

Those other RFAs are important to watch because if they sign before Gustavsson, it could also affect what his next contract looks like.

All Data Via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey-Reference and Puckpedia