With it being July 1st and free agency starting at 11 a.m., Matt Dumba, 28, is without a contract and is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career today.
Dumba was drafted by the Wild in the 2012 draft at pick No. 7, just one year after they took his best friend and longtime defense partner Jonas Brodin at pick No. 10.
Two years before the Wild drafted Dumba and one year before they drafted Brodin, they signed Jared Spurgeon to an entry-level contract after the New York Islanders allowed their 2008 sixth-round pick walk into free agency.
Those three defensemen went on to play 10 seasons together and established themselves as one of the leagues best top-four defensive groups in the NHL, with the addition of Ryan Suter who joined the Wild one year before Dumba.
As of July 1st, only Spurgeon and Brodin remain with the Wild and both continue to be elite top-four defensemen.
Dumba showed a ton of promise in his first three full seasons with the Wild, where he scored 10 or more goals on the backend in each of those three seasons.
The following year Dumba was on pace for a career year which came a year after his 14-goal and 50-point season that earned him a five-year 30 million dollar contract.
In the first 32 games of the 2018-19 season, Dumba notched six power play goals and 12 total with 22 points. It seemed like Dumba wouldn't stop scoring, even causing then Wild coach Bruce Boudreau to suggest he might score 30 goals, a rare feat for a defenseman.
Dumba was on pace for exactly 30 goals and 56 points during that 82 game season, but his tremendous start to the season came to an end when Dumba sustained a season-ending torn pectoral muscle on Dec. 15 during a fight with Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk.
The previous meeting with the Flames on Dec. 6, Dumba laid a big hit on Mikael Backlund and moments later Mark Giordano caught Mikko Koivu's knee in a knee-on-knee collision.
Koivu lucky didn't tear his ACL on the play, but he missed two weeks because of it. Giordano, the Flames' captain, was suspended by the NHL for two games for the hit on Koivu.
The Wild played the Flames on home ice just nine days after the mayhem that happened in Calgary a couple of days earlier.
Just 39 seconds into the game, Tkachuk and Dumba dropped the gloves in a period that had three total fights.
Some would say, Dumba was never the same after the fight.
After four straight seasons of 10 or more goals, Dumba never eclipsed that mark in his next four seasons for the Wild.
During the 2018-19 season, Dumba was on pace for 156 hits and 30 goals establishing himself as one of the most flashy and exciting defenders in the league. After that season, Dumba only notched over 105 hits in a single season, once.
Dumba did show in his previous year that he can still be an effective top-four right shot defender though. He started not as good as many hoped and found himself healthy scratched for a game because of his defensive struggles. After that Dumba returned to play pretty solid hockey and looked like his old self in the playoffs against the Dallas Stars.
The Data
As you can see from the visual above from Evolving-Hockey, Dumba was an offensive threat from 2017 to 2019 a three year sample size that saw the young right-shot defender among the 94th percentile rank in the NHL in terms of offense.
His defense was only in the 31st percentile rank in the NHL but you could live with that because of the offensive numbers Dumba was putting up.
In a sample size of 21 more games and 500 more minutes, Dumba went from the 94th percentile rank in the NHL in offense to the fifth percentile. A drop of 89 percent may be the biggest drop we have ever seen in the NHL between the years of 2021 to 2023.
His defense did improve by 19 percent but the drop-off in offense is a little concerning.
I don't think this is it for Dumba though. Throughout the playoffs and last couple of games in the regular season, Dumba showed he was much better than his three year stat of fifth percentile of offense in the NHL.
Looking Ahead and Possible Spots For Dumba
I would think Dumba will get a 2-5 year deal with a price range of about 3M-6M. In terms of teams, I think the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators would be interested in Dumba.
The Sabres have been looking for a right-shot, top-four defender for awhile now and adding Dumba's 10 years of NHL experience makes sense for a younger team on the rise.
The Red Wings have a ton of cap space and could utilize that by signing Dumba after they traded Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks last season. The Senators have been interested in Dumba for years now so him signing would make some sense.
The Wild will pivot to rookie defender Brock Faber to fill the hole in the Wild's top-four defenseman on the right side. Faber, a 20 year old, has played two NHL regular season games along with six playoff games but has shown and earned every right to be trusted as a top-four defenseman.
Dumba currently ranks sixth all-time with 598 games played for the Wild. He also ranks 10th all-time in assists and fifth in defensive point shares.
The 28-year-old defenseman will become a free agent for the first time in his career and end what was a 10-year career with the Wild, which saw him post 79 goals and 157 assists for 236 points.
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