Canadiens: Over/Under Points Predictions
ESPN has dropped their point projections for the NHL season, and they have a few Habs predictions that the fanbase may disagree with, or at least, hope not to be true. Others, may delight Canadiens’ faithful for what is to come. Here are three that stand out:
Cole Caufield - 61 points
It’s a good idea to take the over here. Caufield’s goal projections and offensive potential has been discussed at length already. If he plays another 82 games, it’s a safe bet to guess he’ll reach the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.
The forward racked up 65 points after an early portion of the season wherein he struggled finding twine. The top line progressed positively over the course of the 2023-24 campaign, and the optimistic outlook is that they continue this steady growth next year. If Nick Suzuki has in between 75 and 80 points and Juraj Slafkovsky improves on the 50-point sophomore year, there’s no reason to doubt Caufield’s production won’t be augmented.
The one factor that is up in the air is how well the special teams units perform. The Canadiens finished 25th in the league last season for power play goals with 44. If the man-advantage proves to be just that—more advantageous—in 2024-25, then be sure that Caufield and the first line will reap the benefits.
Kirby Dach - 30 points
It’s odd knowing that a player is labeled to be a productive player, yet, in the case of Kirby Dach, ESPN predicts a mere 30 point season. The assumption must be that the American enterprise believes the center won’t play a full NHL calendar year, but it’s still a safe bet to take the over.
Believe it or not, but Dach has only surpassed the 30-point mark once in his NHL tenure. That was two seasons ago in Montreal wherein he totaled 38 points in 58 appearances. Returning to fighting form after tearing an MCL and ACL is no small feat, and there is not only a physical but mental aspect to the recovery.
If Dach plays in roughly 60 games however, and with the second line ice-time he will be granted, there’s a good chance Dach blows by the 30-point threshold placed upon him. With speedy linemate Alex Newhook looking to make big strides next season and if they can establish another winger who cements himself as a part of the second trio, there is an upside that will be rewarded to Dach and co.
Alex Newhook - 44 points
Staying on the topic of second line production, in comes Newhook. If we take a look at his numbers in past years, and do a bit of math, we can make the over work.
In the 2023-24 season, Newhook averaged three more minutes of ice-time than his three seasons with the Colorado Avalanche. Well, how much of an impact can three minutes have? Where he was slotted in the offensive depth chart is higher in La Belle Province than it was in the Centennial State and that means playing more and with better players arguably. It also equaled out to a points per game pace of 0.618 last year versus 0.366 a season prior.
If he maintained the same average from last season and played all 82 regular season games, he would break the 50-point mark. If he were to surpass the 44-point mark, he would need to play in roughly 71 games. If he avoids any high ankle sprains and with Dach hopefully healthy enough that the two can develop together, there is a fair chance Newhook has a productive run.
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