Now that the Montreal Canadiens have signed everyone, we can get a clearer picture of what their lineup could be this upcoming season, especially on the blueline. Up front, there appears to be more wiggle room for internal battles, but at the back, there seem to be five regulars and two youngsters condemned to battle one another for a roster spot.
Jayden Struble, who was just signed to a two-year contract, and Arber Xhekaj were no doubt hoping that David Savard’s retirement would allow them to slide into regular roles. Still, GM Kent Hughes wasn’t ready to ice a team with a single right-shot defenseman, and he went out to acquire Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders.
Dobson, Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson, and Kaiden Guhle have all got a certain offensive flair, and barring a surprise, they are likely to be the Canadiens’ top four. The fifth spot is all but guaranteed to Alexandre Carrier; his arrival from the Nashville Predators last season has tremendously helped stabilize the blueline, and he has shown himself to be a helpful player who’s dedicated and willing to play through pretty much anything for his team.
That leaves us with Struble and Xhekaj vying for the last spot. Both have shown that they can be capable NHLers, and they earn virtually the same thing. Their cap hit makes them easy to move, and there’s no doubt that Hughes could elect to move one of them, like he did with Justin Barron. However, I don’t believe he’ll pull the trigger until he knows where he stands with Matheson.
The Pointe-Claire native is entering the final year of his contract, and last season, he had to adapt to a different role. From a 62-point scorer during the 2023-24 season, he went down to just 31. The drop was mainly due to Hutson stepping up and being put on the first power play unit in his place. In his career year, 28 of Matheson’s points had come on the man-advantage, but this past season, he could only get 10 when Montreal was a man up.
His ice time wasn’t reduced much, though. From an average of 25:33 in 2023-24, he came down to 25:05 this past season. While he lost a lot of ice-time on the power play (from 3:41 to 1:57 according to Dobber Frozen Tools), his role on the PK went up, meaning he still spent a significant amount of time on the ice.
Now that Dobson has joined the fold, Matheson doesn’t find himself behind one elite puck-moving defenseman, but behind two of them. Last season with the Islanders, Dobson spent an average of 23:16 on the ice, and 3:00 of those minutes were on the power play. This will likely mean that Dobson, the Canadiens' highest earner on the blueline, will slide in on one of the power play units, and with Ivan Demidov’s arrival, it’s unlikely that Montreal will opt for a two-defenseman configuration on their man-advantage.
How will Matheson react to this in a contract year? The likely loss of power play time is the downside of Dobson’s arrival for the Quebecer, but the upside is that the reduced ice time should allow him to cut down on the turnovers. The more you play, the more opportunities you get to make a mistake.
The veteran will need to ask himself if he wants to test the market in the hope of getting a more offensive role elsewhere, or if he would rather stay in Montreal and be part of what Hughes and Jeff Gorton are building. Before he was traded to the Canadiens, Matheson had never had more than 31 points in a season. He thrived in his hometown market.
Will he be willing to accept a diminished offensive role and likely less money to stay? The decision will be his. If he is, he will likely sign a contract extension sometime this season. According to Radio Canada's Marc-Antoine Godin, he did meet the Habs’ brass at the scouting combine in Buffalo, the meeting lasted 90 minutes and it's believed contract extension talks took place, but that was before the Dobson acquisition.
If Matheson wants to stay and signs, one of Xhekaj or Struble becomes expendable, especially if David Reinbacher or Adam Engstrom is deemed ready for the next step in the 2026-27 season.
Montreal has a lot of depth on the blueline. It won’t be able or need to hold onto all of it; eventually, choices have to be made. While it’s not ideal for those in a holding pattern waiting to know where they’ll land, hockey is a business, and they have to make do with the situation.
Photo credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
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