Canadiens: Trying to Be in the Mix

The Montreal Canadiens have been bottom dwellers for years now, they've finished in the bottom-five three years in a row and for that reason, many believe it's an unrealistic target. The Athletic's Arpon Basu is not one to content himself with beliefs though. In his latest article, he went for a deep dive in stats to establish that, since 2012-2013, only 12 teams have gone from bottom-five to playoffs. That's only about 30 percent of the teams who tried. 

Most of the writers or talking heads who aren't giving the Canadiens a chance to reach the goal set argue that they've hardly done anything to improve since the off-season began. They're not entirely wrong, but even without any significant move, Montreal could be significantly better. 

It took a while for the Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Juraj Slafkovsky to be put together last season, but when it did, the three ramped up their production. Using that combination from the get go should already result in an increased offensive production and, hopefully, in more goals from sniper Caufield. 

Furthermore, Kirby Dach played four periods of hockey only last season and while the argument could be made that he couldn't physically improve while rehabilitating from his injury, it doesn't mean he has regressed. The Canadiens made it a point to have him around the team at practices, in video sessions with the coaching staff to ensure he didn't miss a beat when it comes to reading plays. 

If, and granted that's a big if, the big centre can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a big factor in the team's improvement. In the 2022-2023 season, he had recorded 38 points in 58 games, which projects to 54 points in a full season. 

Slafkovsky got 50 points this past year and he improved the team in doing so. It might not have showed that much in the standings since his increased contribution was negated by the absence of Dach's, but the former Blackhawk will be back this year. 

It's also worth noting that if SKA St. Petersburg doesn't intend to use Ivan Demidov in the KHL, he could be brought over early which Hughes has said in his presser on July 1. It doesn't necessarily mean he would make the NHL right away, but co-director of scouting Martin Lapointe seemed pretty sure post draft the kid would be making the jump when he came over. 

It will be an uphill battle, but it's not completely unrealistic to expect the Canadiens to take a significant step forward this coming season. This is a very young team and its core members are not on the downward trajectory of their career, far from it. 

We could even add to the debate the likelihood of an increased production from the blueline if, as many expect, the organization decides to develop Lane Hutson in the big league rather than sending him down to Laval. While putting pressure on the young man wouldn't be fair, it's hard to forget how well he did in his first two games last season. 

I'm not big on predictions, but I strongly believe the Canadiens will go up in the standings. I'm not ready to put them in the playoffs, but a bottom-five finish once again is highly unlikely. Personally, I see the Habs finishing somewhere in between 22nd and 27th.