Last night's loss to the Calgary Flames could be an early season lesson or an early season warning.
Last night's loss to the Calgary Flames could be an early season lesson or an early season warning.
The Nashville Predators headed onto the ice at the Saddledome last night looking to earn back to back wins on their five game Western road trip, but sixty minutes later the packed their bags after a performance that left head coach Andrew Brunette feeling "really disappointed in our group". It was a far cry from the game a similar Predators roster played Saturday afternoon against the Edmonton Oilers as the Predators were outperformed in pretty much every aspect of the game.
What went so wrong?
The Predators didn't play their game.
That fast, puck possessing style of play Andrew Brunette has coached this team to play never materialized against the Flames. The Predators struggled with puck possession and had their lowest Corsi For percentage of the season so far at just 33%. The quick transition game was often stymied in the neutral zone and sometimes before then as Nashville committed turnovers exiting the defensive zone.
Even after the first period when Nashville was up 2-0 the Predators hadn't gotten to their style of play. While Brunette has previously seen the Predators struggle to get to their game early, Nashville never got there last night.
This game should have been far worse than 4-2.
Juuse Saros faced 39 shots on goal from the Flames, and plenty of those came in rapid succession on second and third chances, breakaways, and extended offensive zone time for Calgary. Last night's game had the highest expected goals against so far this season at 3.24 according to Natural Stat Trick, and even that feels conservative for the pressure the Flames put on Saros.
Looking at all the other statistical measurements, this game was a blow out. Saros' was the one factor that kept the final score remotely respectable.
The top line has to contribute.
Saturday against Edmonton showed how game changing a strong performance from top line players can be. Last night's game showed the opposite. When Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, and Roman Josi don't get involved in the offense, Nashville struggles to win games. Last night the Predators got scoring from Michael McCarron and Kiefer Sherwood which is good to see, but depth scoring can't carry this team.
We've seen what the top line can do. O'Reilly is coming off of a hat trick game in Edmonton and Filip Forsberg is the points leader for the team, but their performance last night was the hockey equivalent of having gotten A's on a report card and then showing up with a D in the same class. We all know they can do better.
Was it a bad game or a bad omen?
Last night felt uncomfortably familiar to past seasons when a Nashville team that was supposedly built for a serious playoff run laid the proverbial sports egg and sent fans on a roller coaster ride of uncertain expectations. Was last night's loss to the Flames a warning of things to come?
It's important to remember this isn't the same scenario. While the Predators have played some impressive hockey so far this season, this is a team just twelve games into a new head coach, new system, new roster, and more importantly, a several seasons long reset. Yes, the team can certainly do better than they did against the Flames. That wasn't a loss based on underdeveloped talent, but there may be more bumps in the road as the team gets more familiar with playing a new style and as Brunette finalizes a more permanent roster.
Nashville doesn't have a lot of time to dissect this loss and sort through what needs addressed about the lackluster performance on and off the ice. Tomorrow they take on Central Division rival Winnipeg Jets who are 6-4-2. The Predators will need to play a far better game if they hope to wrap up this five game road trip with a win.
Predators - 2, Flames - 4: McCarron, Sherwood Score But Flames Smother Preds With Offensive Pressure
Andrew Brunette Disappointed in Predators Performance After 4-2 Loss to Flames