
How do the New York Islanders become salary cap compliant before the start of the season? Should the Islanders still focus on bringing in a defenseman, and could Erik Karlsson be had?
Another day, another New York Islanders mailbag over at The Hockey News. Today, we dive into how the Islanders can become salary cap compliant before the start of the season, which position the Islanders should be focusing on improving as well as going through an Erik Karlsson mock trade.
If you missed our Monday mailbag, click HERE.
Let's get to Tuesday's shall we?
Who do you think will be traded as someone will have to be since we are over the cap? @johnhlov
With Oliver Wahlstrom signing his qualifying offer of $874,125, the Islanders find themselves $486,625 over the cap. That includes the contracts of Karson Kuhlman, Ross Johnston, and Julien Gauthier.
With Kuhlman being the only two-way deal of the extras, he's likely the player heading down, which saves New York $775,000 and has them back under the cap.
If the Islanders wanted to, they could waive Johnston, clearing $1.1 million in cap space. But it's not necessary.
However, in this scenario, Simon Holmstrom doesn't make the NHL roster out of camp, which makes sense because he is waiver exempt. Unless the second-year NHLer blows the coaching staff away during training camp, it may make sense for him to play more minutes in the AHL. Depending on position of need, he would be a first call-up if there's an injury.
Now, if Holmstrom earns a roster spot after camp, there's a few options for the Islanders. They could send Kuhlman down (waivers first) and waive Johnston to clear the remaining $574,958. Or, if Gauthier doesn't earn a starting job, they could send him down (waivers first), which would give the Islanders an excess of $212,542.
With Gauthier's contract being a one-way deal, the expectation is that he will make the NHL roster out of camp.
Do you think LW or LD is the more pressing need? I lean towards LW bc I really like Bolduc and am high on George too. @TonyGrasso_
I've thought the entire summer that a puck-moving defenseman was more of a need for this group than a forward. Now, if the Islanders could get an elite finisher -- something they haven't had since Mike Bossy -- then they should have pursued that avenue, which they did with Alex DeBrincat.
Although a final piece to the Islanders' top line would help production, Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal have no excuse for struggling to create and finish offensive chances.
If those two can find chemistry early, backed by the Brock Nelson line doing their thing, offense shouldn't be a concern, especially if Oliver Wahlstrom breaks out whether he's playing in a top-six role or not.
As for the defense, there's a significant question mark for the final spot. While Sebastian Aho is coming off his best, most consistent NHL season, rookie Samuel Bolduc showed glimpses of being the exact player the Islanders need to shore out their defense as that quick, puck-moving player who can play on the power play.
Bolduc didn't end his season on the right foot, as his second stint up with the big club was night and day from his first stint, and we all know how the playoffs went.
It would undoubtedly help the Islanders if they got a bonafide puck-mover with experience running a power play, especially if Noah Dobson struggles as the top power-play quarterback, as we saw this past season.
How about a trade for Erik Karlsson with Dobson, Pageau + more going the other way? Instantly helps the offense and power play. @FTtocs9914
Per a source, the Islanders inquired about Erik Karlsson around the 2023 NHL Deadline, but the Sharks wanted Noah Dobson. And that was that.
Despite the defensive numbers, Karlsson just won the Norris Trophy after posting a 101-point season. The defensive numbers weren't great, but he played for the Sharks. There would be structure and support on the island.
Per Karlsson, he's spoken to the Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins, Seattle Kraken, and Toronto Maple Leafs (via THN San Jose).
However, Karlsson, 33, carries a cap hit of $11.5 million. The Sharks likely have to retain 20 percent plus to move him, at least, depending on what kind of haul they want in return.
The more money retained, the stronger the prospects/player package will be.
A 20 percent retention would make Karlsson's cap hit $9.2 million.
If the Islanders become cap compliant by waiving Kuhlman and Johnston, they would have around $288,375 to play with, which is not enough.
In this trade scenario, let's pretend the Sharks retain 20 percent. That means the Islanders would need to clear almost $9 million ($8.71 M).
If Dobson ($4 million) and Pageau ($5 million) were part of the package, with potentially picks and prospects to entice for more retention, the Islanders could make it work with $286,625 to spare.
Now, Karlsson -- while he helps 5 on 5 play and the power play -- is a right-side defenseman, which the Islanders currently do not need at the NHL level.
An already-rostered defenseman could certainly flip to the other side, but that's not ideal.
The Islanders would then run into the issue of having enough space to call up Kuhlman to replace Pageau as the No. 3 center or No. 4, depending if this situation would lead to a Casey Cizikas promotion to the third line.
What the Islanders could do, financially speaking, to allow for more room is by including Cal Clutterbuck and his $1.75 million cap hit in the deal. That would give the Islanders $2.04 million in cap space, which would allow Kuhlman's $775,000 to fit on the NHL roster.
I think the Sharks, who want Dobson, would be willing to do this deal, but I don't see the Islanders agreeing to this.
While Karlsson is great, Dobson has an incredibly high ceiling, is 10 years younger, and is $7. 5 million cheaper. Not to mention, Pageau and what he brings is not easily replaced.
The Islanders are likely to run this group back with the hope that Dobson comes in confident and can be that elite offensive defenseman New York needs him to be, including being a competent power-play quarterback.
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