Does Stamkos Make Sense For Islanders?

The New York Islanders entered the NHL holiday break at 20-13-4, holding third place in the Metropolitan Division and a playoff spot, sitting just three points behind the Eastern Conference-leading Carolina Hurricanes (47 points).

Despite expected season-ending injuries to Alexander Romanov, Kyle Palmieri, and Pierre Engvall, Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche has more than $14 million in potential cap space, depending on roster decisions, and the flexibility to explore mid-season upgrades while his group remains in contention.

One potential target is Nashville Predators forward Steven Stamkos.

Darche spent five seasons working in Tampa Bay’s front office while Stamkos was the franchise’s captain, watching him hoist the Stanley Cup twice, giving Darche firsthand familiarity with the player and the person.

Nashville closed the pre-break stretch winning six of its final eight games, with its only losses coming to the Hurricanes and the Western Conference-leading Colorado Avalanche.

Still, the Predators are expected to sell at the trade deadline, at least among its veterans.

After scoring 42, 34, and 40 goals in his final three seasons with the Lightning, his output dropped to 27 goals last season, and his current pace sits at a 34-goal pace  -- respectable, but a step back from his final years in Tampa.

Stamkos' downward trend can be attributed not only to playing for a new team but also to leaving the Lightning’s star-driven power play that featured elite talent in Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman.

This switch saw Stamkos go from 36, 35, and 39 points on the power play to just 21 power-play points last season and five in 36 games this season.

Now six weeks from his 36th birthday and carrying an $8 million cap hit for another two seasons after 2025-26, Stamkos holds limited trade value -- even if he were to waive his full no-movement clause.

Elliotte Friedman recently suggested Stamkos may be open to waiving his clause for the right fit, leaving the Islanders as a logical landing spot given Darche and Stamkos' familiarity and New York's need to add scoring.

Firstly, Nashville would have to retain -- this is a non-negotioable.

While the rising salary cap offers more flexibility, the Islanders would be highly unlikely to take on the full deal, but getting that number in the $5 million AAV range could change this.

The Islanders have just a 12.9% success rate on the power-play, the sixth lowest in the NHL, and lost Kyle Palmieri for the season -- one of the team's leading contributors on the man advantage.

According to Friedman, Stamkos' power-play production decline can be attributed to Nashville's reliance on defenseman Roman Josi as the primary shot-taker -- a factor that has led to Stamkos' demotion to the second power-play unit and shift to a net-front presence instead of his typical spot on the half boards.

Palmieri still leads all Islanders in power-play shots per 60 minutes, and even now -- nearly a month after his season-ending injury -- still ranks second on the team in total shots, trailing only Bo Horvat.

In terms of a trade, value is difficult to gauge since Stamkos has full control if he were to get moved, but Nashville should still be able to fetch a decent return, potentially forcing the Islanders to part with the first-round pick they acquired from the Colorado Avalanche in the Brock Nelson deal or a few smaller assets.

With Stamkos' salary brought down to the $5 million AAV range, the Islanders would add a 30+ goal scoring threat who would improve the power-play without taking on significant long-term money.

It is unlikely Darche makes a move until the NHL's break for the Olympics in early February given the Eastern Conference is so close, nor is Nashville to move Stamkos before this break given they are within striking distance of a playoff spot.

But, if the price is right and the situations align, a Stamkos deal could make sense for both sides.