When the New York Islanders lost Mathew Barzal and other key players to injury, Bo Horvat stepped up with timely goals and clutch performances.

The 30-year-old center finished the 2024-25 season with 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) in 81 games, a slight dip from his 2023-24 output of 68 points (33 goals, 35 assists).

Despite the drop in production, Horvat still led the Islanders in points and ranked second in goals, trailing only Anders Lee’s 29 tallies. He also posted a 58.2% faceoff win rate, second on the team behind J.G. Pageau (59.6%) and his best in his career. 

His decline in scoring can largely be attributed to two factors: his shifting role and the Islanders’ power play struggles.

Horvat’s opening-night linemates – Barzal and Anthony Duclair – missed a combined 90 games, preventing him from building chemistry with a consistent trio.

Islanders Anthony Duclair Deserving Of Fresh Slate After signing a four-year, $14 million deal last offseason, <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders" target="_blank">New York Islanders</a> forward Anthony Duclair’s first year in blue and orange didn’t go as planned.

His most frequent line featured Lee and Pageau, but the three logged just 172 minutes together at 5-on-5. 

From there, his next common pairing was alongside Lee and Kyle Palmieri for 131 minutes before another dropoff.

For comparison, Brock Nelson – who was traded at the deadline to the Colorado Avalanche – spent 416 minutes with Palmieri and Maxim Tsyplakov.

Horvat’s season was an uphill battle, not just due to the constant rotation on his wings, but also because of how he was deployed.

At 5v5 in 2023-24, he began 38% of his shifts in the offensive zone compared to just 26.7% in the defensive zone. In 2024-25, his offensive zone starts dropped to 31.3%, while his defensive zone starts remained relatively similar at 23.6%.

Per PuckIQ, Horvat logged a team-high 482 minutes against “elite competition,” averaging over 30 more seconds per game against top-tier opponents than in 2023-24.

PuckIQ’s criteria for ‘elite’ players include maintaining points/60 > 2.21 (all game states), time on ice per game > 75th percentile, relative corsi > 40th percentile, and relative dangerous fenwick  > 40th percentile. This leaves around 60 players in this category per season.

With such a high rate of shifts beginning in the defensive zone and against opponents’ top players, it should be no surprise that Horvat’s offensive totals were limited.

Despite his role shifting toward that of a two-way center, Horvat’s 5v5 production improved. He scored just 0.05 fewer goals per 60 minutes than in 2023-24, while recording 0.2 more primary assists and 0.15 more primary points per 60.

Ultimately, Horvat’s overall point decline stemmed from the Islanders’ power play struggles – an ongoing team issue, but a new challenge for him.

In 2023-24, he tallied 10 goals and eight assists on the man advantage. That dropped to just three goals and seven assists in 2024-25.

As a team, the Islanders’ power play fell from a 20.3% success rate to just 12.6%.

Horvat also shot a career-low 6.12% on the power play, 7.2% below his career average across all strengths.

Interestingly, advanced metrics suggest he was a victim of strong goaltending. He generated 2.05 individual expected goals per 60 minutes on the power play, his highest rate as an Islander, but opposing goalies posted a .939 save percentage on his shots.

In general, goalies had an .855 SV% on the power play last season – an 8.4% lower rate than against Horvat’s shots.

Horvat’s career 13.4% shooting percentage and 18.7% shooting percentage on the power play should ease any doubt that he will not bounce back in 2025-26.

Final Verdict: A-

Given that Horvat made a positive impact on both ends of the ice while being given less offensive freedom and tougher deployment, it is hard to leave him with a lower grade.

His defensive metrics were not great, but the context of his difficult usage as a defensive forward must be considered.

Had coach Patrick Roy matched Horvat against easier competition with a higher offensive zone start rate, his metrics would look considerably stronger, but the Islanders would have been a worse team for it.

With Barzal returning to center, Horvat is expected to begin 2025-26 as the Islanders' second-line center, with recent addition Jonathan Drouin set to play on one of his wings.

Drouin, 30, ranked in the 87th percentile in top skating speed in 2024-25, meaning Horvat will once again have premier speed on his line.

The third member of Horvat’s line remains unknown, but Palmieri is a strong candidate after the duo found success late last season, combining for 11 goals at 5v5 in 20 games following the Nelson trade.

Horvat is expected to reunite with Barzal on the power play and produce a stat line more reflective of his true impact.

Although he logged the third-most shorthanded minutes among Islanders forwards last season, his penalty kill usage should decrease with the addition of Emil Heineman, a defensively minded forward who joins Pageau, Casey Cizikas, and Simon Holmstrom as regulars on the units.

If the Islanders can stay healthy, Horvat is poised for another 25 to 30-goal, 60 to 70-point season as a reliable two-way second-line center.

CoreNHL’s model projects Horvat to provide an estimated $7.9 million of value in 2025-26.