Stan praises Semyon Varlamov and the Islander power play, while Stefen explains the Isles' high danger scoring chance statistics, the return of Scott Mayfield, and the latest acceptable date to put away one's Brocktober decorations.
Every week Stan "The Hockey Maven" Fischler, Stefen Rosner, and Zach Weinstock gather for a lively Islanders shmooze.
This week Stan praises Semyon Varlamov and the Islander power play, while Stefen explains the Isles' high danger scoring chance statistics, the return of Scott Mayfield, and the latest acceptable date to put away one's Brocktober decorations.
ZACH: Welcome back to another Wraparound.
MAVEN: Missed you, fellas.
ZACH: It's been four games since we last spoke. Points in all four.
MAVEN: I have two words for last night: Valiant Varly.
STEFEN: Pretty much. Outshot and out-chanced significantly. Switch netminders, and they probably lose.
MAVEN: Thomas Hickey made a good point; Varly is in a class with Sorokin. Some people call it "One" and "One-A." I call them Number One and Number One.
ZACH: Caveat. He's in a class with Sorokin only when he plays once a week or less. But he is seven years older than Sorokin, and we've seen him wear down in the past.
STEFEN: Listen, if you look at their numbers the last two seasons, it's no mystery why Sorokin gets the bulk of the work on this team.
MAVEN: But two straight shutouts on the road. That's some hot mustard.
ZACH: Look at Sorokin's splits in recent years. He's been better at home than away for a while. So I think Varlamov as a "road warrior" is a really good niche for him.
MAVEN: Give the Isles credit for outshooting the Caps 12-9 in the third period, but other than that, it was a real slog. The Columbus game was what provided the most encouragement.
STEFEN: I thought Varlamov stole that one too!
ZACH: Really? I'm with Stan.
STEFEN: He had 34 saves.
MAVEN: It's not quantity, it's quality. He saw everything.
ZACH: Agreed, not a lot of action in the low slot and not a lot of breakdowns side-to-side. He was good, no doubt, but they played well in front of him too. That was a good road game, Stefen.
STEFEN: It was okay. Maybe I was just sour because there's nothing to do in Columbus.
MAVEN: Had they replicated that effort last night in DC, I'd have been One Merry Maven.
ZACH: Me too.
MAVEN: Then there's the defensive travesty we saw late Monday against the Wings.
STEFEN: I put a lot of that on the in-game line juggling.
ZACH: You were very big on that in your post-game articles.
STEFEN: I pressed Coach Lambert about it a few times. He switched Barzal and Wahlstrom and basically told us it was because Horvat and Barzal weren't doing enough defensively together. But he didn’t bench either one of them, he just split their line. What does that do?
ZACH: I don't know, but how is that the reason they lost the game?
STEFEN: From then on, the defense got worse.
ZACH: Because the whole team stopped skating.
MAVEN: Yeah, they fell asleep. All of them.
ZACH: And to be fair to Stefen, the two guys you mentioned – Wahlstrom and Barzal – were among the sleepiest, but that's an effort issue, not a line issue.
STEFEN: Maybe when you play around with lines, they take it as criticism, and it affects their confidence, mood, and ultimately their energy.
MAVEN: No, lazy is lazy.
STEFEN: I pressed him on the line changing Tuesday after practice. He said when he went back and watched, the top line's defensive play wasn't as bad as he thought. Got the idea he regretted the moves.
ZACH: I get that he's been very impatient with his forward lines, changing them basically on a shift-by-shift basis, and it's bizarre. But now's the time in a season when you can afford to do that.
STEFEN: Players don't enjoy it. Especially in-game.
ZACH: Have you asked them?
STEFEN: Maybe I will.
ZACH: Yeah, maybe - you're the one making a big deal out of it.
MAVEN: Let the coach change his lines. He's looking for the winning combination. No harm in that.
STEFEN: Last week, you said it was making you dizzy.
MAVEN: Well now I'm used to it.
ZACH: Speaking of that third period against Detroit, have either of you ever seen a less effective "wake-up" timeout than that one? What did Coach say to them?
STEFEN: I didn't ask. Suffice it to say he yelled, just like every coach who's ever called timeout in the middle of a period.
ZACH: But it's rare for the team getting yelled at to come out looking as bad as before.
MAVEN: It was a timely timeout. Why didn't it galvanize the team? That's on them. And don't blame the third goal on line juggling. That was the Nelson line. They've been together all year. And that was a major – major! - miscommunication.
ZACH: Ya know, they messed up that same coverage last night in the first period too. Puck at the right point, guy stands all alone at the weakside post. Same exact play. It was a different line, though, I believe, but the same blown coverage. All three Islander forwards floating high.
STEFEN: There's been a lot of that this season. Let me throw a stat at you.
MAVEN: Traditional or advanced?
STEFEN: Um--
MAVEN: I'm going to the bathroom.
STEFEN: Not traditional, but it's not one of those dumb ones, either. "High danger scoring chances."
MAVEN: Who decides the degree of danger?
STEFEN: There's an algorithm.
ZACH: Really?
STEFEN: There's some sort of system.
MAVEN: I'm lost.
STEFEN: Hang on. At five-on-five, the Islanders have surrendered the most high-danger chances per game – by far. A distant second is San Jose, who lost 10-1 last night and have one point so far this season!
ZACH: I believe it.
STEFEN: So, for the Islanders, the eye test and the numbers are in sync.
ZACH: Then the Islanders had average goaltending, how many points do you think they would have so far this year?
STEFEN: They'd be in the basement of the division. And that's why Lou Lamoriello brought Varlamov back and inked Sorokin to an eight-year deal.
MAVEN: Enough with the ridiculous "ifs." They don't have average goaltending, they have superb goaltending. No "ifs" are necessary.
ZACH: Are you saying that's why they've opened it up? To put their best player to the most use?
STEFEN: I don't think they have opened it up, at least not by design.
MAVEN: I don't know if it's by design either, but what I do know is that with Sorokin and Varlamov, giving up chances is not the end of the world. Play a back-and-forth game, and odds are our Russian goalie – either one - will outduel the lad at the other end.
ZACH: But it's not like Scott Gordon or Doug Weight is back behind the bench orchestrating these back-and-forth games. These breakdowns haven't been the product of an aggressive system. It's a lot of mental mistakes.
STEFEN: Either way, I have to mention that they're fourth in the league in five-on-five high-danger chances for also, behind only the Devils, Stars, and Oilers, three darn good teams.
MAVEN: So it goes both ways. There you have it. The question is whether the roster has a better defense in it and if the younger second-stringers can play better.
ZACH: Did you know Pageau is minus five? That's surprising. No one else is worse than minus-two.
STEFEN: But it isn't just on him. He's had too many linemates where defense isn't their strong suit, like Wahlstrom or Lee, and his line still goes against the best the opponent has to offer, regardless of who his wings are.
MAVEN: Have you brought this up to Coach?
STEFEN: I think he feels the same way. Wahlstrom was a healthy scratch at Wednesday's practice and did not play last night against the Capitals. Fasching went back in, and that helped the Pageau line defensively. I thought J.G. played his best game Monday night anyway.
MAVEN: Glad to see Pageau back and Fasching playing, but we can't move on from the Red Wings game until we talk about the tic-tac-toe power-play goal at the end of the third! They've been trying to set up that high-slot one-timer for years!
STEFEN: Yup. Finally went in.
ZACH: I guess this means they're definitely going to keep forcing this thing for the rest of the season.
STEFEN: I don't think they were going to stop regardless.
ZACH: It was a great shot, don't get me wrong.
STEFEN: But still a pretty low percentage. And Nelson probably came this close to getting called for interference anyway.
ZACH: Right, which I guess is bound to happen when you have four guys playing the point.
STEFEN: You're right – it's really something. Four out of five Isles are at the top of the circle or higher when the shot's taken, and he scores on a one-timer without a screen. Pretty unusual play.
MAVEN: I can't believe the negativity from you two. The power play is shaping up. Simon Holmstrom scored a phenomenal goal. How often does John Carlson get torched like that? Simon Says...best player his career so far!
STEFEN: Maybe. Probably. Fasching called it an "unreal play." I agree.
MAVEN: Don't forget about the pass he made either for that goal.
ZACH: Fasching's more skilled than some people realize.
MAVEN: One of these days I want Rapid Rosner to ask Hudson Fasching if he's named after the river or the big bay up in Canada.
STEFEN: I will not be doing that.
MAVEN: And Maven loves an extended Brocktober. What a rush by that line and finish from Lord Nelson.
STEFEN: It's Nelly November
ZACH: I usually don't take in my Brocktober tree until around the 10th.
STEFEN: What did we think of Mayfield's return?
MAVEN: Big boost. Lengthens their depth on defense, no doubt. That's a difference-maker. Teams were really starting to take advantage of the bottom pair.
STEFEN: Yup, and the top four were getting worn out.
MAVEN: It didn't really show last night, but give him some time. They need him.
ZACH: I thought he looked pretty good. You know, Maven, your pre-season "Dobson for Norris" prediction is coming along nicely so far.
MAVEN: I didn't say Norris. I said, "Breakout." Ambiguity is key in the prediction racket.
STEFEN: His confidence is sky-high. I think, in that way, his strong offensive play is actually bolstering his defensive play.
ZACH: That's another guy near the top of the "where would they be without him" list.
MAVEN: Well, he's their leading scorer, for Pete's sake. Do you know how many other teams are led in points by a blueliner? One. Ivan Provorov in Columbus.
ZACH: Who's also a minus-five, by the way.
STEFEN: Is that a bad sign for the Islanders? When your leading point scorer is a defenseman?
ZACH: Not if he has nine points in nine games.
STEFEN: Fair.
ZACH: Big revenge game coming up this weekend against the Hurricanes. Islanders have not fared well in these situations. They have not defeated the team that knocked them out of the previous season's playoffs in their first chance the following year since a 4-3 win over the Penguins on October 25, 2013!
STEFEN: Well, technically, that's not true. They beat Tampa in Game One of the semifinals in 2021, and that was the first matchup since the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals because they didn't play in the regular season that year.
ZACH: We're talking just regular season. They've had four opportunities to pay the team back early the next season, and they've gotten blown out each time.
MAVEN: Oh, who cares! Who even remembers what happened in April anymore? I just want to see them play well.
STEFEN: Alright, Stan, Islanders held Ovechkin to three shots last night, and he was minus-three. What was the first joke you ever told the Great Eight?
MAVEN: The first time he came to the Coliseum. Now his hair is grayer than mine, but obviously, back then, he was young. Right before the interview, I said, "You know, you're better looking than Crosby." He laughed.
STEFEN: I can see him getting a kick out of that.
MAVEN: He did, and I was glad to see the Isles give him a kick in the pants last night. And next week, I want to hear more positivity out of both of you. The bottom line is it's November, and the lads are three wins over .500. THE GLASS IS HALF FULL.