Palmieri recorded 30 goals last season and is currently on pace for 24 goals this season.

New York Islanders, pending unrestricted free agent forward Kyle Palmieri, had a strong 2023-24 season, matching his career high in goals (30) and scoring 54 points, three short of his personal best.

His performance significantly improved in the second half of the season, with 19 goals and 29 points in 37 games following Patrick Roy’s appointment as head coach.

This would have been good for a 42-goal, 64-point pace over an 82-game season.

In the 2024-25 season, Palmieri's offensive production has returned to his career norms, taking a dip after such a red-hot start. 

Through 55 games, he has registered 16 goals and 37 points, projecting to a 24-goal, 55-point pace over 82 games.

While some regression was expected, one specific factor has contributed to his lower goal-scoring rate compared to the previous season.

He is not getting to the "dirty" areas enough for his liking.

In 2023-24, Palmieri scored 19 goals from within a stride of the crease:

He frequently drove toward the net and shoved the puck past the goaltender, scoring many goals much like this: 

His production from this area has not gone away in 2024-25, but it has slowed, as he has just six goals from the net-front area this season:

The data supports this trend as well. 

In 2023-24, Palmieri set a career-high in expected goals per 60 minutes (1.46), a metric that accounts for shot quality and rewards attempts from high-danger areas.

Additionally, he generated more high-danger shot attempts from around the net that season, recording 5.06 per 60 minutes -- another indicator of his increased offensive efficiency.

Throughout his tenure with the Islanders, Palmieri has consistently produced a similar rate of high-danger shot attempts, but that figure has dropped to 2.27 per 60 minutes in 2024-25 -- the lowest since his rookie season in 2010-11.

However, Palmieri has scored four goals in his past six contests, one of which was a result of his aggression atop the crease:

"I think for me, it's really about generating around the net," Palmieri told The Hockey News. "I think sometimes you get into these ruts, and even though you're keeping things simple and working hard, you're having a tough time finding the timing to get into those areas and getting an opportunity score. So I think, for me, it's really about being in and around the net and finding ways to contribute in that way."

This shift in his play is most evident in the power play. 

In 2023-24, he scored 10 power-play goals, with all but one coming from around the crease. 

In contrast, he has recorded just two power-play goals in 2024-25, neither of which came from close range.

While the Islanders' 32nd-ranked power play has struggled to send passes into high-danger areas, Palmieri has also not established himself as the same aggressive, net-front presence that defined his success last season.

Of course, Palmieri getting into these high-danger areas is easier said than done, especially with Maxim Tsyplakov typically occupying such net-front positions at both even strength and on the second power-play unit.

However, if Palmieri hopes to return to his goal-producing ways, the data and the eye test indicate that he would benefit from applying more pressure on goaltenders from high-danger areas around the net.

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