Lamoriello’s Islanders Are Still Deadline Buyers, But Selling Will Have To Come First
It's hard to be a seller when a team is "right there" because anything could happen once the playoff begins. The Islanders, despite their struggles, are right there, and a fire sale is not on the table for Lou Lamoriello.
The 2024 NHL Trade Deadline is now just two weeks away, and the New York Islanders haven't made much headway in the playoff race since Patrick Roy came aboard (4-4-3).
But, given the circumstances, sitting five points back of a wild-card spot, Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello will have his mind on going for it, and here's why.
When the NHL changed its point system -- awarding a point to the team that loses in overtime or a shootout -- it allowed teams to stay alive much deeper into the season.
It's hard to be a seller when a team is "right there" because anything could happen once the playoff begins.
Look at the Islanders last season, making the playoffs in Game 82.
Look at the Florida Panthers, who did the same thing as the Islanders and ended up going on a run, beating the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins, and going all the way to the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals.
Look at the Islanders in 2020, making the playoffs due to point percentage, and then in 2021, finishing in the fourth and final spot in the East Division, with both runs ending in semi-final appearances.
In 2021, the Montreal Canadiens finished as the fourth seed in the North Division, the worst team statically to make those playoffs, before ending their run with a Stanley Cup Final defeat.
So sellers, by the typical definition, the Islanders will not be because they are still right there.
"It's only in recent years that 'buyers and sellers' have come out," Lamoriello said ahead of the Islanders' battle with the St. Louis Blues on Thursday night. "Now it's become something prevalent in sports where you think you're going to be able to use it as a reason to bleed and try and reload. I'm not a believer in that. If there are players that are not in your plans, you have to look at something like that if you felt you weren't going to have a chance to be in the playoffs.
"I believe in the group. But we have to play to our capabilities." (H/t Newsday's Andrew Gross).
Lamoriello has 14 days to improve this team to qualify for the playoffs and go on a run, and it sounds like selling off players who are not in his future plans could be on the move.
The Roy hiring has played a critical role in Lamoriello's trade deadline decisions.
When Lamoriello hired Barry Trotz in the summer of 2018, the recent Stanley Cup champion looked at the Islanders' roster and built a system that played to their strengths: defense.
Things are different now with Roy's arrival, as he brought over a system.
And with the new bench boss going nowhere for the foreseeable future, players will either adapt to his system or likely not be on the roster going forward.
Per Gross's reporting, Lamoriello clarified that he wasn't making all of his players available but that no one is ever untouchable and that he'd only move his 2024 first-round pick if he believed he could get a player that would help them win today or a player that would be part of the plans for a long time like we saw with Bo Horvat last season.
The Islanders don't have much room to make additions, with just $135,000 in cap space, per CapFriendly, which means adding starts with subtracting.
Small pieces of the team certainly could be moved, like Sebastian Aho ($825,000 cap hit), but if the Islanders are focused on improving the team, that likely means a significant piece of this family is going to be on the move.
All signs point to veteran Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
For the price of a first-round pick (2020), a second-round pick (2020), and a third-round pick (2022), the Islanders landed the Ottawa Senators' top centerman before signing him to a six-year extension worth $30 million (M-NTC, 16 teams).
The Islanders thought they were getting a 25-plus goal scorer, a top-flight penalty killer, and a shutdown centerman.
They got the penalty-killing, shutdown player, but Pageau was never able to replicate the offensive game we saw in Ottawa.
And with the play of 24-year-old Kyle MacLean, who is currently in his second stint with the NHL squad due to Casey Cizikas' second injury of the season, his $8000,00 cap hit has made Pageau expendable.
Playoff teams would love to add a player with Pageau's skillset, and it would be rather unlikely if Lamoriello's phone didn't ring for No. 44.
If the Philadelphia Flyers are making the price tag for Scott Laughton a first-round pick, Pageau could bring about that and maybe a tad more, depending on how much salary the Islanders would eat (up to 50 percent).
That brings us to veteran Brock Nelson, who likely isn't going to be moved but is the Islanders strongest asset at the deadline.
The 32-year-old is on pace to score 35-plus goals for a third-straight season and is a top-10 center in the NHL regarding offensive production.
Nelson is an unrestricted free agent following the 2025-26 season, making $6 million annually (M-NTC, 16 teams).
The return for Nelson would be, at least, a few first-round picks, at the minimum.
Although the Islanders don't have many top-six winger options or waiting in the minors, Kyle Palmieri is a playoff performer that provides value.
The Islanders traded their 2021 first-round pick and their 2020 conditional fourth-round pick in 2021, along with depth forwards A.J. Greer and Mason Jobst, for Palmieri and Travis Zajac.
Palmieri was inked to a four-year deal worth $20 million (M-NTC, 16 teams) and, until the second half of last season, had struggled to stay on the ice and be an effective player for the organization.
But now, he's playing the way the team expected, and given his playoff experience, he could be a player that draws interest.
At the bottom-six level, the 36-year-old Cal Clutterbuck is one of those pieces that any playoff team would love to have in their room.
With no years left on his deal, currently on an expiring contract with a $1.75 million cap hit, it's such a low-risk, high-reward move from a playoff team.
As we saw with Andy Greene and Zdeno Chara, Lamoriello would likely only move Clutterbuck if Clutterbuck wanted to leave, which is extremely doubtful but never off the table.
You also can't rule out the trading of recent seven-year signees in forward Pierre Engvall and defenseman Scott Mayfield.
Engvall has struggled with fundamentals all season long, with Roy calling him out at last week's practice for just that.
Is he a player who can adjust to Roy's attention-to-detail system?
Despite that seven-year deal, the cap hit is just $3 million (M-NTC, 16 teams), and there's always value in speed. Retaining 50 percent is always possible, but Lamoriello is trying to clear cap space and shouldn't have to with such a lower annual value.
Mayfield has been a shell of what we've seen over his past time on the Island and carries an annual cap hit of $3.5 million (NTC).
Even with his struggles, a big-body right-handed defenseman who blocks shots and plays on the penalty kill will always have value, especially for a playoff team.
Contrary to popular belief, the Islanders have players with trade value if they are willing to break up a group that's been primarily the same for the last handful of years.
The question is, does Lamoriello feel like breaking apart the family?
Any asset acquired from selling -- if they aren't getting a top player back in return -- can be flipped to bring in players as well, hence the sell and then-buy method.
Names like Jakob Chychrun or Noah Hanifin may seem like dream adds for New York, but getting a two-way defenseman in a system that needs that and locking them up to long-term deals would solidify the backend for years to come.
On the forward front, players like Jake Guentzel, Vladimir Tarasenko, Pavel Buchnevich, and even a bottom-six forward like Anthony Duclair could be necessary additions, bringing speed, which Roy needs.
Outside of Duclair, the cost for those other forwards would be high, so if the Islanders want to bring in a top-six player, a final piece to their top line alongside Horvat and Mathew Barzal, Lamoriello needs the assets, which would only come by selling first.