
After the New York Islanders saw their eight-game point streak snapped Saturday night, Stefen Rosner answers your questions and provides insight into your comments in this latest mailbag.
The New York Islanders watched their eight-game point streak (6-0-2) come to a close Saturday night after they sleepwalked through the first 40 before losing 5-3 to the Montreal Canadiens.
It was the second of a back-to-back, coming less than 24 hours after the Islanders coughed up a 2-0 lead, a 3-2 lead, and a 4-3 lead to the Boston Bruins before falling in the shootout.
With no game until Tuesday night against the Edmonton Oilers, let's answer some questions and provide insight into your comments.
If Bo is out for a significant amount of time, do you think Lou looks for scoring punch, or does he try to give Wahlstrom another look? @JoeyPickles30
For those who missed it, Horvat fell awkwardly onto the ice in the dying seconds of Saturday night's loss. He skated off the ice with no glove on his left hand:
There was no update following the game, so we will see if he's on the ice for Monday's practice. If Horvat does have to miss time, one would think that Oliver Wahlstrom will get back into the lineup.
The only way I could see Lou Lamoriello going and getting someone else, like Anthony Duclair from the San Jose Sharks, would be if Horvat lands on long-term injured reserve, which would create an additional $8.5 million.
Anders Lee doesn't fit on this team. I know he is our captain, but is there any chance they buy him out or trade him at 50% retention at season's end? @aa19273179
Is Anders Lee the answer to the first line going forward? No. Is Lee still the potential 30-plus goal scorer he's been over the last few years? No.
But right now, he's helped the Islanders top line flourish, knowing how to get out of the way of Horvat and Mathew Barzal, as well as win puck battles along the boards.
If anything, Lee's second stint on the top line this season has fueled him, as we have seen him skating better and being more involved.
Before his "turnaround," there was certainly the thought that the Islanders may have to buy Lee out this summer with two years remaining after this season with a cap hit of $7 million. Sure, the Islanders could move Lee at 50 percent retained ($3.5 M), but I don't think Lee is the issue right now.
I think it's more about how Lambert's used him late in games.
The only thing that's on my mind is why Philadelphia keeps winning. They need to bottom out and quick. @solaraguy11
Maybe it's just time to say that the Philadelphia Flyers are a good hockey team. We've been waiting for the bottom to drop out, but John Tortorella has a "weak" roster exceeding expectations, whose expectations have changed given their position in the standings after 30 games.
The Metro's second-best team is just finding ways to win, the sign of a good team, and it's clear that the players have bought into Torts' system.
In your opinion, what's been the reasons why the Isles have been successful in the past couple of weeks? @MrEd315
The Islanders have been a more resilient bunch the last few weeks, battling late in games, and hadn't been blowing leads at the rate we saw earlier this season.
But, this past week, they blew leads again like clockwork, and I think the difference in a week or two prior is that the penalty kill was starting to figure things out, but the shorthanded units are struggling again against the tougher competition.
If the Islanders are going to find a way to put teams away in the third, they need to stay more disciplined, but when they do take penalties, the PK units have to bear down, which includes the netminder.
If Zach Parise returns, who sits? @ThomasB74456064
It seems that Zach Parise is revving up for a return, and it will likely be with the Islanders.
As of now, with the offense essentially fully healthy, Julien Gauthier would likely be the odd man out if Parise returns. That's not to say Gauthier hasn't played well enough to stay in the lineup, but Parise, with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and a confidence-infused Simon Holmstrom, would be a lethal third-line shutdown line.
What I will say is that I don't think Parise would play every game, and you could see Gauthier get time on the fourth line with Hudson Fasching getting some nights off.
Why do we keep playing Aho? He is a defensive liability. @johnlpc
I think Sebastian Aho has proven to be a suitable No. 6 and No. 7 defenseman in the NHL. But, at times, he is a. defensive liability, and I think that Mike Reilly has passed Aho on the depth charts.
As for why Aho is playing... there's nobody else.
Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield are all out injured, and outside of Grant Hutton, no other defenseman in the system has been given a chance yet to prove their worth.
It's clear that Robin Salo isn't someone the Islanders think is ready to be an NHL player, or they would have gone to him over claiming Reilly off waivers and trading a 2024 seventh-round pick to the St. Louis Blues for Robert Bortuzzo.
On Sunday morning, I crunched the numbers on the Islanders goaltending in the third period this season. Here are the results:
Now, these results don't take into consideration the strength of the opponent or the game situation, so using these as a basis for an argument wouldn't be the strongest idea.
Here's my thought on the goaltending situation in the third period.
Varlamov has been more compact and more comfortable, but Sorokin has been absolutely left out to dry, more often against tougher competition, and has struggled to rise to the occasion consistently.
In general, Varlamov has been the more consistent netminder this season.
Let's get into some goaltending questions to round out this mailbag:
What's your opinion on using shot attempts as an important metric for goalies? Seems like it doesn't get enough emphasis. But also, how does it factor into other advanced stats? @kylennium29
I don't think shot attempts are needed when determining who the strong goaltenders in the league are and which ones are struggling because a shot attempt isn't a shot.
But what I will say is that, for example, if a goaltender kicks out a rebound to the slot and then slides over to try and make a second save, but the player in the slot misses the net, the goaltender still has to do everything he would to make a save, which definitely impacts fatigue level.
So, a goaltender who faces more attempts could potentially be working harder than goaltenders who face fewer attempts, even if their shot numbers are similar.
In terms of advantaged analytics, no real stat takes into consideration every situation during a game, which is why relying on stats only is never the right thing.
For goaltenders, I'm a big fan of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSaX), which you can find at moneypuck.com.
I think people are going to look at just the save percentage and not the actual number of shots faced. The truth is Sorokin has been left for dead in the crease all year. @Cal_ClutterGOAT
That is true. Sorokin has faced way more shots in the third period than Varlamov, facing 127 more shots in eight more games.
Despite the struggles of Sorokin, whether they are his fault or a result of the team in front of him, he's an elite goaltender in the NHL and has shown to be a goaltender who can make a lot of issues for a team.
We saw it last season when Sorokin finished as a Vezina finalist. We just haven't seen the Vezina-caliber Sorokin at a consistent rate this season, and with the Islander's defensive zone struggles, they need their goaltenders bailing them out on a nightly basis if they are going to make the playoffs.
You'd think at some point Lane would, at minimum, make this goalie tandem more of a 50/50 split. @TuckonSports
Sorokin has started 19 games to Varlamov's 11, which is a 63/37 split. There was a time this season when Lane Lambert was rotating his goaltenders, but Sorokin is getting the starts against tougher competition while Varlamov has been getting the weaker opponents.
Varlamov has been brilliant this season, in my opinion, and has earned more starts, and I don't think it's because Sorokin is being paid (next year) as an elite NHL starter.
I think it's that the Islanders believe in Sorokin, clearly, and know that if he's going to get back to his Vezina ways, it's not going to come from riding the bench.
But, with the defense struggling, especially late in games, it might be a positive to split the crease so that we don't see fatigue from Sorokin, like we saw last season, which impacted his playoff effectiveness.
With the emergence of Dobson, the acquisition of Reilly, and Horvat's heater Isles are now more able to trade scoring chances with the other team. Now they can outscore their mistakes more often. @poniesNpucks
You nailed it. What happened last season is that after a few months of an offensive uptick, which helped mask defensive lapses since wins were coming, everything changed in January when the offense went dry.
This season, the offense should be able to provide more consistency as we progress here, but that doesn't mean that New York can allow their defense to continue to play the way it's played, which includes more than just the defenseman and their mistakes.
Teams that focus on just outscoring their opponents, like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oierls, don't win the ultimate prize.
The positive for the Islanders is that they have the goaltending that those teams don't, but it's still a group that needs to prove that in critical moments, the offense can get the job done. And that will be something that can't be proven in December. It needs to prove its worth in postseason play if the Islanders get there.