Changes That Islanders Should Consider Ahead Of Potential Playoff Elimination Game

The New York Islanders have made a few changes throughout their series against the Carolina Hurricanes. Now, with elimination on the line Saturday, head coach Patrick Roy must make some more.

Before we dive into potential lineup switches, let's recap the changes so far:

In Game 1, with Jean-Gabriel Pageau out with a lower-body injury, Roy elected to play Kyle MacLean as the third-line center, Simon Holmstrom as the fourth-line center, and Hudson Fasching as the second-line winger.

After the Islanders outplayed the Hurricanes but fell 3-1, Pageau returned to the lineup for Game 2, with Roy putting him back in his usual third-line center role.

MacLean went back to centering the fourth line while Holmstrom remained in the lineup, taking Fasching's spot. 

The Islanders ended up coughing up a 3-0 lead, falling 5-3, which led to two changes heading into Game 3 at UBS Arena.  

Roy re-inserted Fasching for Holmstrom, with his major change coming in goal, electing to go to Ilya Sorokin after giving Varlamov the first two games of the series.

Fourth-line forward Matt Martin, who was a game-time decision with rookie Ruslan Iskhakov as his likely replacement, was able to play.

The Islanders didn't play a bad game. But Sorokin struggled early, and the Islanders failed to capitalize on their scoring chances, with Hurricanes' goaltender Frederik Andersen coming up big in a 3-2 loss. 

With the Islanders' season now on life support, there are certain changes that Roy should consider.

The obvious one is putting Semyon Varlamov back in between the pipes after he stopped all eight shots he faced in relief of Sorokin, who allowed three questionable goals on 14 shots to put the Islanders in a hole.

The next move that should be considered is putting Sebastian Aho into the lineup for Robert Bortuzzo.

The 35-year-old defenseman—the only player on the roster who has ever won a Stanley Cup—has struggled this series. Yes, he's blocked 11 shots through two games, but his lack of speed against a team that can flat-out move has led to some mistakes and some goals in the back of the net.

At one point in Game 3, the Islanders were being out-chanced 18-0 when Bortuzzo was on the ice. 

The series deficit isn't on Bortuzzo alone, but Roy needs to find a way to counteract Carolina's speed. A physical presence matters if you have the speed to lay the body, and that's been an issue for three games.

Aho was actually the Islanders' second-best defenseman in their 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs first-round series against the Hurricanes, with Ryan Pulock by far the best blueliner. 

The Mike Reilly-Aho pairing played well together this season, and it may help New York transition the puck a bit more, starting with skating-out breakouts rather than neutral zone alley-oops, which has become too common for the Islanders.

One could argue that Matt Martin, who did play in Game 3, could come out for a player like Ruslan Iskhakov, but if we are being realistic, that would be a shock.

Playing Iskhakov with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri may make more sense, given that the young forward's skillsets match more in a top-six role than as a fourth-liner.  

Fasching did make a strong play on Brock Nelson's goal, but he and Holmstrom haven't particularly taken the chances they were given and run with it in the playoffs and this season. 

Despite not taking any more personnel out of the lineup, Roy may make some line changes, hinting at one throughout Game 3.

MacLean, who has been a spark plug for every line he's been on since arriving on Long Island at the end of January and by far New York's best player in the playoffs, got shifts with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal.

Together, totaling 1:39 minutes per NaturalStatrick.com, the Islanders had a Corsi For percentage of 66.67 when those three were on the ice, with Maclean's tenacity playing a vital role in that number.

If MacLean plays on the top line, here's how the lines could look for Saturday:

Forwards

MacLean-Horvat-Barzal

Iskhakov-Nelson-Palmieri

Lee-Pageau-Engvall

Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck

Defense

Pelech-Pulock

Romanov-Dobson

Reilly-Aho

Goalie

Varlamov

Sorokin

Do these lines give the Islanders the best chance to stave off elimination? 

Do any line combinations avoid the likely reality?

The ironic part of this series is that despite being underdogs, with mostly every media member going with Carolina to come out on top, the Islanders had a chance to be up 3-0 in this series.

They really did.

They were the better team in Game 1. They weren't the better team in Game 2 but found a way to get out to a 3-0 lead where they beat themselves. Then, in Game 3, Sorokin wasn't sharp, and while Varlamov maybe doesn't stop that backdoor play to Martin Necas, which Sorokin did stop, he likely stops the shots that Sorokin got beat on, which, in theory, would have been good enough to win. 

But all that matters is what actually happens, and now Roy has decisions to make, needing a win to keep the Islanders' season alive.