The Avalanche's first-round pick, acquired via Nelson trade, carries a diminished value. Its true worth hinges on draft class strength and trade market dynamics.
The New York Islanders own two first-round draft choices for the first time heading into a trade deadline in quite some time.
Thanks to last year's Brock Nelson trade, the Islanders own the Colorado Avalanche's first-round pick in this year's draft.
However, what's become clear is that the value of that pick is exponentially lower than the normal first-round pick is valued, due in large part to the Avalanche occupying the No. 1 spot in the NHL all season long.
Based on the current standings, the Islanders' pick would be the 22nd overall pick, while the Avalanche's pick is projected to be the 32nd overall pick in the draft.
How does one evaluate the value of those picks?
Quite frankly, it's wildly subjective, and there's no perfect equation for it. The very first factor in any value chart is the evaluation of this draft class. Most experts have described the 2026 draft class as an average class, with some exciting players at the top of the board.
That's overall good news for the Islanders, as you'd obviously prefer to avoid stacking picks in a draft class that's seen as well below average. The good news is that's not this year. This year is not below average by any means.
Any prospect in the expected range for the Avalanche's pick are expected to take multiple years before arriving in the NHL, which is standard.
So far, the value is quite alright, especially considering the prospects in the ranking area.
You can look at the 2024 NHL Draft for one way draft picks are valued. The Islanders traded the 18th and 50th overall picks to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the 20th, 54th, and 61st overall picks.
That tells you there is a big value gap even from picks 18 to 20. In last year's draft, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings struck a deal. The Penguins acquired the 24th overall pick in exchange for the 31st and 59th overall picks.
But, the Islanders might want to dangle the pick for a player. The best way teams will value that pick is a combination of all of these factors, all of which points to the pick being valued essentially as a second-round pick.
It's a pick that, even if the Avalanche lost in round one, would only be as high as the 25th overall pick, based on how the NHL assigns draft picks. The 17th through 24th overall picks go to playoff teams who do not win their division AND are eliminated before the conference finals.
Picks 25-28 are assigned to division winners who do not make it to the conference finals. Picks 29 and 30 for conference finals losers. The Avalanche, in that case, have their pick in position to be extremely late in the draft.
PuckPedia calculates the draft pick's values using an anayltical-based system known as the Perri Pick Value. Their website explains it, and you can see how similarly valued picks are valued from pick 27 through 35, the late first and early second round.
Essentially, the pick's value is that of an early second-round pick. To some teams with more picks, they could want it and then use it to package with another pick (usually a second-round pick) to move up in the draft.
It's a decent trade asset, but with the 2027 Draft projecting to be notably stronger than the 2026 Draft, it wouldn't be a surprise if teams have been asking the Islanders about their 2027 first-round pick in trade talks, as opposed to either of their picks this year.