The New York Islanders have a decision to make regarding netminder Ilya Sorokin this summer, who is eligible to sign a long-term extension. Here's why there's really only one route they can go.

Matthew Tkachuk may have led the Florida Panthers to the Stanley Cup Finals with his offensive prowess. But his teammate Sergei Bobrovsky, the highest-paid netminder annually in the NHL at $10 million, is the likely Conn Smythe Winner, given his brilliance between the pipes. 

While the Panthers have already booked their ticket to the dance, out west, Adin Hill and the Vegas Golden Knights are on the verge of sweeping the Dallas Stars.

Hill is proof that paying a netminder a hefty sum isn't always a need to get to the Finals. The 27-year-old is making the league minimum ($925,000), sporting a 1.96 GAA with a .940 SV% and a shutout in eight appearances, six starts.

But Bobrovsky is showing that paying a goaltender is still a dominant route to winning a Cup, as he owns a .935 SV% with a 2.21 GAA with one shutout in 14 appearances, 13 starts. 

To pay a goaltender, or not pay a goaltender, that is the question. It's a question that the New York Islanders need to answer when dealing with goaltender Ilya Sorokin.

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The 28-year-old Vezina Finalist is about to enter the final year of his contract but is eligible to sign a long-term extension this summer. 

And that's something the Islanders should do...because there's really no other choice, regardless of how expensive, and here's why. 

Sorokin was elite during the 2022-23 regular season, posting a 2.34 GAA with a .924 SV% in 62 games with a league-leading six shutouts. He bailed the Islanders out left and right, and his play was the biggest reason why they snuck into the postseason.

Yes, Sorokin was average in the Islanders' first-round matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. He had some brilliant showings and brilliant saves, but also had weaker showings, allowing back-breaking goals like the Hurricane's overtime winner in Game Two and Game Six, the latter of the two serving as the series-clincher.

In Sorokin's two playoff experiences, he's shown flashes of being a guy that can carry a team, like Bobrovsky is currently doing, but hasn't stolen a series yet in his first few attempts.

But the potential for Sorokin to pull a Bobrovsky is very much there, and if the Islanders are going to win a Cup in the near future, Sorokin will be playing a vital role.

Dan Milstein, Sorokin's agent, has all the leverage in extension talks, and there's no question he thinks his player should be paid like an elite netminder because he is one.

Andrei Vasilevskiy was the market-setter back in 2020, signing a $9.5 M AAV extension over eight years before winning two Stanley Cups (the Panthers overpaid for Bobrovsky in 2019, even at his elite level right now). 

Before entering summer vacation, Sorokin was asked about signing a long-term extension with the Islanders during his season-ending media session. Here's his response:

“I’m always open [to signing an extension], but I have one more year. I never think about contracts [...] I love this place, the people around me.”

While no player is ever going to bash his teammates in front of a camera, Sorokin sounds like he's telling the truth. 

It's not out of the realm of possibilities that general manager Lou Lamoriello finds a way to get Sorokin back on a team-friendly deal, as we saw with defensemen Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. 

The big question is what is more important to Sorokin: Money, comfort or winning.

The Islanders could offer him at least two of those things, with the potential for the third. 

He's clearly comfortable on Long Island. Depending on the moves the Islanders make in free agency, they could be true contenders -- or at the very least, competitive. 

If money is the top want, and Sorokin came back to the Islanders asking for Bobrovsky money at $10 million annually, how are the Islanders to say no?  

The only way "no" could be an answer is if their salary situation makes the signing impossible -- which it doesn't if certain moves are made.

Let's pretend negotiations go south. The Islanders then have two choices. They can trade Sorokin or let him walk in free agency. 

If the Islanders bring back 34-year-old Semyon Varlamov on a multi-year deal, they at least have a reliable goaltender after the 2023-24 season that gives them a chance. 

But what are the Islanders truly going to get for Sorokin?

They could likely get a few top picks, but besides the benefits of cap space ahead of a projected exponential cap rise, do the pieces help the Islanders retool faster?

You very rarely see top goaltenders traded. Thinking back to recent history, the last top-flight goaltender to get traded was current Bridgeport Islander and former Vancouver Canucks netmidner Cory Schneider, who was dealt to the New Jersey Devils back in late June of 2013 for the ninth overall pick in the 2013 NHL Draft.

Schneider was trending towards elite status before the trade and, through his first three years in Jersey, was elite before injuries derailed what was a rather strong start to his career.

The one team that would likely give up the kitchen sink for Sorokin, to have him for the full 2023-24 season, is the Edmonton Oilers, as this upcoming campaign will be Leon Draisaitl's final year under contract. 

Does that extra salary cap space following a trade allow the Islanders a better chance at retooling quicker? 

Maybe so. 

Maybe not. 

It's a gamble, something the Islanders did when they decided to let Jennings Trophy winner Robin Lehner walk following the 2018-19 season, signing what seemed to be, a declining Varlamov as his replacement. 

That was a gamble that paid off immensely for the Islanders and is one of the main reasons this story has been written. 

But gambles don't always pay off, something the Edmonton Oilers are dealing with.

The Oilers signed ex-Toronto Maple Leaf Jack Campbell to a five-year deal worth $25 million last offseason. He struggled mightily in his first season as an Oiler, losing the starting job to rookie Stuart Skinner, who signed a three-year extension worth $7.8 million following their elimination in Game Seven of the Western Conference semi-finals. 

Besides Sorokin, the Islanders lack a superstar that every Stanley Cup Champion has. Without him, the Islanders may not qualify for playoff hockey due to that bail-out ability to a level that only a select few have.

For as good as Varlamov has been as an Islander -- bailing them out in his own right --he isn't Sorokin.

Very few are -- if any -- when he's on his game. 

Paying Sorokin elite money long-term is undoubtedly a gamble, no question about it.

But with a rebuild not even a possibility, it's a gamble the Islanders have to take.