Unless the New York Islanders find a way to clear a tremendous amount of salary-cap space, getting superstar forward Jake Guentzel isn't happening. But a player like him is the need.
Unless the New York Islanders find a way to clear a tremendous amount of salary-cap space, getting superstar forward Jake Guentzel isn't happening. But a player like him is the need.
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Unless the New York Islanders find a way to clear a tremendous amount of salary-cap space, getting superstar forward Jake Guentzel isn't happening.
According to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman on his '32 Thoughts' podcast, the Carolina Hurricanes are willing to trade the pending UFA's rights for a mid-round pick.
That tells every NHL general manager that Guentzel plans to test the market instead of signing an extension in Carolina.
The biggest question that announcement brought was, "Why would teams give up an asset if they could just sign him in free agency for cash?"
The only benefit—and a big one—is that by acquiring Guentzel's rights, a team can offer him an eighth year on his deal, whereas free-agent teams can only offer him seven.
Either way, a team will have to pay, at minimum, $9 million per season for his skillset.
While a mid-round pick means that all 31 teams are in play, it has to be a realistic landing spot for an extension.
It sounds like the Chicago Blackhawks, who have around $33.79 million in available cap space, are really interested, as Guentzel would become Connor Bedard's mentor and running mate for years to come as that franchise tries to accelerate its rebuild.
If you think about it, there can't be a general manager better than Lou Lamoriello at convincing trade acquisitions to sign long-term.
Whether you agreed with any of these signings or not, at the time, pending unrestricted free agents Jean-Gabriel Pageau (acquired in 2020) and Kyle Palmieri (acquired in 2021) both signed five-year extensions upon stepping foot on Long Island.
Then in 2023, Lamoriello acquired Vancouver Canucks captain Bo Horvat, one of the league's top pending unrestricted agents, inking him to that eighth year at $8.5 million annually immediately.
Not for eight years and a contract that caused a lot of head-scratching around the league, but Lamoriello also acquired Pierre Engvall from the Toronto Maple Leafs at the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline and signed him to a seven-year deal worth $3 million annually on July 1.
Guentzel is likely about to sign the final long-term contract of his career, with the cap rising exponentially (going from $83.5 to $87.7 M).
It's a big decision.
Guentzel would be the perfect fit for the Islanders' top line, given that, despite being 5'11 and 180 lbs, he is one of the best net-front forwards in the NHL.
If you are reading and thinking that Horvat is that kind of player, he isn't.
While he isn't a perimeter shooter, the second-year Islander is a slot guy, where he can use that quick release, whether at 5-on-5 or on the power play in the bumper position.
This past season, the Islanders tried to find the right winger to play along Mathew Barzal and Horvat.
Anders Lee struggled this season when on the top line and was moved to the third line, where he looked much better playing alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Engvall.
In his spot, the Islanders tried the following: Lee, Engvall, Oliver Wahlstrom, Hudson Fasching, Kyle Palmieri, Casey Cizikas, Brock Nelson, and Simon Holmstrom.
Cizikas ended up winning the job because he had the foot speed and ability to win battles and get to the front quickly.
The problem is that line needs a player with more offensive skill -- not a knock on Cizikas, but he's an energizing, defensive-minded forechecker who's been a bottom-six player his entire career.
The Islanders' dynamic duo needs a Guentzel-type player, a Mathew Tkachuk-type player, and a Zach Hyman-Sam Reinhart (pending UFA) player.
They're limited.
However, the cost for Guentzel and Reinhart (who could also get $10 M) is likely too high for New York, so that means they have to "settle," for lack of a better word.
Our Matthew Page recently wrote on how Tyler Toffoli could be a strong option for New York:
With $6.15 million in available cap space as of now, if the Islanders want to bolster their lineup, they either have to move at least one contract or take low-risk, high-reward players, like they just did with Maxim Tsyplakov.
According to Ethan Sears of the New York Post, who spoke with Tsyplakov through his translator, his expected NHL role is as a middle-six forward.
He could prove to be a top-line guy, or he could be more of a bottom-six player or not work at all at the NHL after playing in the KHL.
But for $950,000, it's a risk worth taking.
The Islanders still need a bonafide top-line player -- less of a question mark -- heading into the 2024-25 season if they want to be a true Stanley Cup contender.
That doesn't mean that's who they'll be able to get because most teams are interested in that kind of player.
So, they may need to sign a "second-line" player in that spot and hope for production to translate into timeline minutes.
That's the reality of the situation.
Although the Toronto Maple Leafs are trying to retain Tyler Bertuzzi, who signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal last summer, could be in the hunt for a two-to-four-year deal north of $5 million.
He scored 21 goals with 22 assists in 80 regular season games before a goal and three assists in seven playoff games.
Bertuzzi is certainly a fit for New York and has played on a top-line before, scoring 30 goals with the Detroit Red Wings alongside Dylan Larki back in 2021-22.
Vancouver Canucks forward Dakota Joshua is an intriguing player, a former fifth-round pick in 2014 by the Toronto Maple Leafs who made his NHL debut during the 2020-21 season with the St. Louis Blues.
This past season, the pending unrestricted free agent set career highs across the board with 18 goals and 14 assists for 32 points in 63 games.
He finished second in the league in hits with 245, adding 40 blocks as well.
Joshua played on the Canucks' third line for most of the regular season, but when a blood clot was found in Brock Boeser's leg, the 28-year-old forward moved up to the second line.
On the open market, the belief is that Joshua will be getting north of $3 million:
Joshua would be a strong fit for the Islanders' bottom six but doesn't solve their top-line problem.
The same can be said about Hurricanes forward Stefan Noesen, who played a bottom-six role incredibly well.
If the Islanders could get a sniper/finisher who's not a power forward or a strong net-front player, there's talent out there in the likes of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault (Quebec native, like Patrick Roy).
Anthony Duclair, who was our Islanders' top get at this past trade deadline, is a pending UFA after being moved by the San Jose Sharks to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers would be a great fit on the trade front.
So would Martin Necas, a "budding superstar and pending RFA who may be on his way out due to wanting more of a top-six role.
There are possibilities for New York this summer to bolster their top line.
Horvat and Barzal play a certain game, and a net-front, high-IQ player is the best fit for them.
With them on the books for another seven seasons, time certainly is of the essence to find a long-term answer to get the most out of them while they're in their prime.