New York Islanders starter Ilya Sorokin and New York Rangers starter Igor Shesterkin have struggled to mask team mistakes like they've done in year's past.
New York Islanders starter Ilya Sorokin and New York Rangers starter Igor Shesterkin have struggled to mask team mistakes like they've done in year's past.
EAST MEADOW, NY -- With only a handful of games to go before reaching the halfway point of the 2023-24 season, the New York Islanders and New York Rangers are holding down playoff spots.
Under second-year head coach Lane Lambert, the Islanders have 46 points in 39 games (18-11-10), good enough for third in an ever-changing Metropolitan Division.
The Rangers, who got off to a dominant start, sit comfortably atop the Metro with 54 points (26-11-2) in 39 games.
While the reasons for each team's success this season aren't shared, their weaknesses sure are.
It seems weird to even type this, but the play of their elite starting netminders has been a cause for concern.
No, Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin aren't the main issues for their respective teams, as a lack of strong defensive play at 5-on-5 has truly left them out to dry.
The problem is that these two goalies haven't been able to bail their clubs out like we've seen in years past.
Last season, both goaltenders were named All-Stars in 2022-23 and kept up that superstar play the entire year.
In a Vezina-finalist season, Sorokin posted a 23.42 Goals Saved Above Average at 5-on-5 with a 38.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (counts shot quality and is the better stat).
That doesn't mean there weren't times when Sorokin allowed his fair share of goals.
He allowed four or more goals 14 times in 62 appearances, five or more six times, allowing six just once, playing to a 2.34 GAA, with a .924 SV% and a league-high six shutouts.
Against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night, Sorokin wasn't at his best, allowing a few goals he would want back in a 5-3 loss.
For Shesterkin, his 2022-23 season wasn't as elite but was quite strong, posting a GSAA of 18.17 with a GSAE of 28.1.
He allowed four or more goals 12 times in 58 games and just had one game where five pucks beat him for a 2.48 GAA, with a .916 SV% and three shutouts.
Coincidentally, both goaltenders faced 29.64 shots per game.
But so far, in 2023-24, he hasn't been able to mimic their bail-out numbers this go-around.
Sorokin has faced a league-leading 938 shots through 27 games, 34.74 per game, and has posted an inflated 3.17 GAA with .909 SV% and two shutouts after inking an eight-year extension (kicks in next season) worth $8.25 million annually.
He's already tied last season's stat line of allowing four or more goals 14 times in 35 fewer appearances, already allowing five goals five times and six once.
Sorokin's advanced metrics are still strong, with a 12.9 GSAA and a 5.2 GSAE.
According to NHL Edge, the league average GAA sits at 2.98, so Sorokin has blown past that. His high-danger save percentage (.836) is above league average (.798), and he has allowed 33 high-danger goals against, with 35 goals coming off mid-range shots.
Against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night, Sorokin wasn't at his best, allowing a few goals he would want back in a 5-3 loss:
But the eye test -- the only thing that truly matters -- has shown a dip in his performances, failing to come up with those enormous saves we saw a season ago.
Shesterkin has been in the same boat despite facing fewer shots per game than he did a season ago.
Through 24 appearances in 2023-24, Shesterkin owns a 2.85 GAA with a .904 SV%, zero shutouts, allowing four or more goals eight times, and facing 29.16 shots per game.
The most significant difference between Shesterkin and Sorokin is that Shesterkin's advanced metrics back up the eye test, as he's only saved eight goals above average at 5-on-5 with a 4.8 GSAE.
Shesterkin is having a statistically average season, according to NHL Edge.
The league average goals against average is 2.85, and he has a 2.98.
Shesterkin has a .905 save percentage, the league average is .903. The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner has allowed 20 mid-range goals this season and 40 high-danger goals.
Statistics don’t paint the whole picture, but the metric brush is unique and can assist the eye. If you sit down and watch, Igor has come up in certain moments but less frequently than in past years.
That was exemplified on Pettersson's goal Monday night:
Again, the teams in front of them have let both netminders down, but both can do more to help mask certain mistakes.
In both instances, it's been the play of their backups that has also made their lack of clutchness more of a story.
Although Semyon Varlamov is currently out injured, he's been more consistent, with a 2.78 GAA and a .918 SV% in 14 appearances.
Jonathan Quick has revitalized his career in his first stint on Broadway, owning a 2.44 GAA with a .915 SV% in 14 appearances.
Both teams have put tremendous pressure on their goaltenders on a nightly basis, but that's nothing new. So, the question becomes, can Sorokin and Shesterkin rediscover the game that put their names in the convo of best in the world?
Hockey fans love to get caught up in stats, and sometimes they are good for painting a beautiful picture. But with any stat, the flaw is that analytics don't calculate pressure and when a save is timely or not.
Even if both New York metropolitan teams make the postseason, the only way a Stanley Cup run is in the near future rests on the shoulders of No. 30 and No. 31.
The question is, when that time comes, will they be the superstars they've proven to be, or will their struggles to be clutch prove fatal?
You can watch Rosner talk Islanders hockey on Hockey Night in New York with co-host Sean Cuthbert live Sunday nights at 8 PM ET during the season at twitch.tv/hockeynightny.