Analysis: How Will the Alex DeBrincat Conundrum Play Out?

It's never been about Ottawa. DeBrincat isn't keen to sign long-term anywhere right now.

With the draft and the first two days of free agency behind them, the Ottawa Senators are no closer to solving the frustrating case of Alex DeBrincat.

Here’s my full read on the situation, based on conversations I’ve had with a source close to the DeBrincat family; from listening to GM Pierre Dorion; and my best attempt at an objective, common-sense view.

When the Senators acquired DeBrincat last summer for a first (Kevin Korchinski), a second (Paul Ludwinski) and a third (2024) round draft pick, he still had two years left on his contract.

The Senators were hoping to sign him long-term as soon as he was eligible this summer. But on the day of the trade, the team and most of the city were mainly just excited to land a player of DeBrincat’s caliber. As for the long-term contract, they felt confident he'd be excited to join an exciting, emerging, tightly-bonded young team. They could worry about contracts later.

“Later” has now arrived.

DeBrincat’s agents have decided that, with unrestricted free agency just one year away, they should hold off on signing long term. While it’s true and fair to say that DeBrincat doesn’t want to sign long-term in Ottawa, a better way to put it would be: DeBrincat’s people don’t want to sign long-term anywhere right now – not unless a team really makes it worth their while to skip unrestricted free agency next summer.

That’s completely reasonable. DeBrincat’s market value in UFA next summer will be so much higher than it is right now.

It’s just like the recent sale of the franchise. In 2003, there was only one bidder and the team and rink sold for $130 million. In 2023, there were multiple bidders and the team and rink sold for around $900 million. Even accounting for inflation, that’s a big difference.

For DeBrincat this summer, he’s being asked to negotiate with one team, either the Sens or the team they want to trade him to. Next summer, in the open auction of UFA, many suitors await, with chequebooks in hand. It’s like night and day.

And there’s zero pressure on DeBrincat to take a discount or help another team make a deal, because he likes it in Ottawa. He’s not trying to force his way out.

Some of the social media dialogue has been just the opposite, suggesting he’s not happy here, didn’t like Ottawa, doesn’t like the coach, wants to play for an American team. If any of that were true, then he almost certainly would have found a way to grind out a deal with one of the so-called preferred destinations.

The fact is that DeBrincat has nothing against Ottawa. Whether he was still in Chicago, staying with the Senators, or traded somewhere else, his agent's plan is to go to unrestricted free agency unless someone makes it worth his while not to.

The Senators have offered what they think is fair. They won’t pay more than market value and that’s also completely reasonable. Even the biggest DeBrincat fans begin to bristle at an eight year deal that creeps north of $9 million. And it looks like no other team is down with that either, because they’re not only being asked to pay 2024 UFA prices, they also have to give Ottawa a bunch of assets to secure his rights.

“There are varying degrees of interest,” GM Pierre Dorion told a news conference on the weekend. “Teams call. We get close to a (trade). I give them permission (to try and sign DeBrincat long term), and sometimes (other teams) may not be ready to pay the term that maybe we’re ready to pay.”

This is going to be an extremely difficult trade to make, if it’s ever made at all. Nobody will give the Sens much for a one year rental. And while Dorion is still exploring all solutions, he’s also starting to get fans ready for the possibility that Debrincat signs a one-year and plays in Ottawa this season.

“Alex has been nothing but great here… We got no problems if he wants to come back.”

Our best guess right now? The Sens take DeBrincat to arbitration in August, hoping for that 15% discount and he plays in Ottawa, at least until the trading deadline, when contenders often overpay for playoff rentals. If the Senators have suddenly emerged as a team that can go deep, they then treat DeBrincat as their own de facto playoff rental.

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