Senators or Leafs? Who’s Now the Best Team in the Battle of Ontario?

The Battle of Ontario between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs has been dormant for years. The teams have risen and fallen at different times since 2004 when they last met in the playoffs. In fact, they faced each other in the postseason four times in five years back then, with the Leafs winning all of those series. Since then, the Sens have been to a Cup Final and won seven playoff series while the Leafs have only managed to win one.

Now under new ownership, the Senators have spent to the cap for the first time in years, just as rising stars like Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk are entering their prime. 

For the first time since 2017, the Sens are preparing to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Leafs are still primed for a long playoff run with the core four of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares. 

Let’s compare these two teams (making best guesses at final rosters) and see who the best team in Ontario is.

Forwards:

Toronto Maple Leafs 

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Marner 

Knies - Tavares - Lafferty 

Robertson - Nylander - Domi 

Jarnkrok - Kampf - Reaves 

Ottawa Senators

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux

Tarasenko - Norris - Batherson

Greig - Pinto - Kubalik

Joseph - Kastelic - MacEwen

In comparing these two groups, we are presuming the Sens sign Shane Pinto and that Josh Norris will remain healthy. However, a player like Mathieu Joseph could be traded for cap space.

The Leafs have a former 60-goal scorer in Matthews, a Selke nominee in Mitch Marner, and a 40-goal scorer in William Nylander. The Senators cannot match the Leafs in top end talent, even though Tim Stutzle had 90 points last year and could be on his way to becoming a perennial 100-point scorer.

When looking down the forward lines for both teams, the two match up pretty closely. The Leafs could be very stacked in the top six, and could roll three very good lines if Nylander stays at centre. They would be missing a top-end third line center if Nylander goes back to the wing.

Similarly, Ottawa’s center depth is very strong with Stutzle, Norris and Pinto, although there are still concerns about the health status of Josh Norris, whose shoulder is currently keeping him out of pre-season games. The Sens will also likely lose some forward depth in moves to clear cap space to Pinto.

Overall, the Leafs have more proven fire power than the Sens. But the youthful Stutzle hasn't hit his prime and forwards like Tkachuk, the veteran Claude Giroux, and the newly acquired Vladimir Tarasenko arguably match the Leafs’ depth. The Leafs have the proven stars; the Sens are more reliant on rising stars.

Edge: Leafs’ Forwards

Defence:

Toronto Maple Leafs 

Rielly - Brodie 

McCabe - Klingberg 

Giordano - Liljegren 

Ottawa Senators

Chabot-Chychrun

Sanderson-Zub

Brannstrom-Hamonic

The Leafs' blueline looks much different from years past, with the loss of players like Muzzin, Holl and Schenn. It isn’t very big or physical and is lacking great defensive defensemen. 

In contrast, Sens fans have long yearned for a good top four on their blueline; now they have it with Jake Sanderson, Jakob Chychrun, Thomas Chabot and Artyom Zub. 

On paper, the Sens may have their best D-corps since their 2007 Stanley Cup run. Chychrun can score 15-20 goals; Chabot is a great offensive playmaker; and Sanderson had a phenomenal rookie season (earning him eight-year, $64.4 million contract). 

The Sens will have more talent on defence this season, although the Leafs could still add at the deadline.

Edge: Senators’ Defence

Goalies:

Toronto Maple Leafs

Samsonov 

Woll

Ottawa Senators

Korpisalo 

Forsberg

Last year, Ilya Samsonov was fantastic for the Leafs with a save percentage of .919. Meanwhile, the Sens’ new acquisition, Joonas Korpisalo, had a .914 save percentage last year with Columbus and LA.

Both teams will most likely use goalie tandems throughout the year. Samsonov's running mate will likely be Joseph Woll, who didn’t play much during the regular season last year but was very good in the playoffs. For Ottawa, it's Anton Forsberg, who wasn’t great last year. He has shown promise but is coming off tearing both MCL’s in his knees last year. 

There are questions in net for both teams, but they do benefit from the stability a tandem situation provides. No clear cut edge for either team.

Edge: Even 

Overall, the pedigree of the Leafs’ higher end forwards may mean the Leafs will still have the edge. However, the gap between these two teams looks to be smaller than it has in a long time. The Sens have a legitimate chance of making the playoffs and may even push the Leafs in the Atlantic. They might even face each other in a playoff series.

The Battle of Ontario looks to be very much alive this year.