Senators fans appear to be divided over the wisdom of signing the tough guy to a three-year deal.
The Ottawa Senators' recent signing of forward Zac MacEwen to a three-year, one-way contract worth $775,000 per season has caused a strong reaction among Sens fans. One side is arguing that this is a cheaper, younger replacement for tough guy Austin Watson and the other side is arguing that he doesn't bring much to the roster outside of fighting.
The truth is, the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
The Good
One advantage of signing MacEwen is his ability to limit Brady Tkachuk from engaging in fights with enforcers like Ryan Reaves and Milan Lucic, both of whom now play in Ottawa's division. MacEwen's aggressive style of play and willingness to stand up for his teammates can keep Tkachuk focused on his offensive contributions without being sidetracked by physical altercations with bottom-of-the-lineup goons.
Furthermore, MacEwen's contract at the league minimum salary provides financial flexibility for the Senators. If necessary, they have the option to easily bury his contract in the AHL or consider a buyout. This flexibility can be crucial for the team in terms of managing their salary cap and making future roster adjustments.
Additionally, MacEwen's signing as a younger and cheaper replacement for Watson brings cost savings (especially compared to Reaves at 3 years, $1.35M AAV), while potentially maintaining a similar style of play. MacEwen's skills in winning fights can add an extra intimidation dimension to the team's lineup. Something Watson was often unable to do, despite his willingness to drop the gloves.
The Bad
One concern regarding MacEwen's signing is the three-year term. This long-term commitment may become problematic if MacEwen fails to meet expectations. It would raise questions about the team's ability to adapt and potentially ties up valuable cap space that could be utilized elsewhere.
Another potential issue is head coach D.J. Smith's usage of MacEwen. It has become apparent that Smith appreciates hard checking players, almost to a fault at times. If Smith overplays MacEwen, regardless of performance, it could very well be detrimental to the team's overall success and development of other players.
And when compared to Watson, MacEwen may not provide the same level of offensive or defensive productivity. The team had other options available and could have explored alternative signings or utilized prospects such as Egor Sokolov, Cole Reinhardt, or Roby Jarventie, who offer potential long-term upside in a bottom-six role, rather than a pure fighter/tough-guy.
The Ugly
An area of concern surrounding Zac MacEwen's signing is his poor advanced metrics. Advanced statistics provide insights beyond traditional box score numbers and suggest that MacEwen's contributions may be very limited.
Poor possession stats, such as a career a 47% corsi for percentage, and 42.6% expected goals for percentage, is what you may call the opposite of an analytics darling.
Then add MacEwen's lack of scoring, with 28 points in 186 games played, and a career 6.3% shooting percentage is where the concern becomes apparent.
Finally, with no significant contributions in penalty killing (1.5 minutes in his career!) or shot blocking (career high of 32), MacEwen's impact on the ice may be limited to his hard-nosed play and fighting abilities.
MacEwen's poor advanced metrics raise plenty of doubts about his ability to drive play and positively impact the Senators' overall performance. This could have implications for the team's overall performance and gameplay, especially if MacEwen is unable to provide additional contributions beyond fighting and physicality.
The signing of Zac MacEwen by the Ottawa Senators presents a mixed bag of positives and concerns. His ability to limit Tkachuk from fighting, the cost-effective contract, and the potential as a better role-replacement for Watson provide reasons for optimism. But concerns arise regarding the three-year term, potential misuse by the coaching staff, and the limited productivity when compared to other options, both internally and externally.
Finally, MacEwen's poor advanced metrics raise questions about his overall impact on the team. Enforcers may not have a spotlight like they used to in hockey, but it is clear that teams still value the physical presence. The Senators must carefully manage his role and contributions to ensure that his signing proves to be beneficial.