The Ottawa Senators will host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night in Game 4 of their first-round Stanley Cup Playoff series. After finally ending an eight-year postseason drought, the Senators now face the ugly reality that, unless they find a way to solve the Leafs in Game 4, their run will be over less than a week after it started.
The term “must-win" gets chucked around pretty loosely in the media to describe important games, but there’s no other way to frame this one. Down 3-0 in the series, Ottawa must win to keep their season alive.
The last two games were overtime nail-biters, but the cold truth is this: Not only has Toronto been the better team, there really hasn’t been an area you can highlight as a silver lining for the Senators.
- Power play: Toronto 55%, Ottawa 22%
- Penalty kill: Toronto 77%, Ottawa 44%
- Faceoffs: Toronto 57%, Ottawa 42%
- Goaltending: Anthony Stolarz is 3–0 with a 1.95 goals-against average and .926 save percentage. Linus Ullmark is 0–3 with a 3.90 GAA and .815 SV%.
Offensive production has also leaned heavily in Toronto’s favour. The Leafs' big three, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, have combined for 15 points in the series. In contrast, Ottawa’s three regular-season leaders—Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson—have totalled just five.
Ottawa did strike first in Game 3, thanks to a rare 5-on-3 opportunity, and scoring first is usually a good sign for the Sens. But even that wasn’t enough in Thursday’s heartbreaker.
Still, head coach Travis Green and his squad remain committed to the mantra that’s carried them this far: stick to the process. In other words, stay focused on doing the right things, and the results will take care of themselves. That steady approach helped the Sens power through an 82-game season to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Now they’re out of time. They need more than process. They need results.
If there’s one lifeline for Ottawa, it’s the fact that the Leafs haven’t been great closers. According to NHL.com, the Leafs are just 2-13 in potential series-clinching games since 2004.
Can the Senators claw back and force a Game 5 in Toronto? Or will the Leafs find a way to finish the job quickly?
Projected Lineups – Game 4 (NHL.com)
Ottawa Senators
Forwards:
Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux
Fabian Zetterlund – Dylan Cozens – Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio
David Perron – Adam Gaudette – Nick Cousins
Defense:
Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven – Nikolas Matinpalo
Goaltenders:
Scratched: Dennis Gilbert, Travis Hamonic, Matthew Highmore
Injured: Hayden Hodgson (lower body)
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forwards
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Pontus Holmberg – John Tavares – William Nylander
Calle Jarnkrok – Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz
Max Pacioretty – Max Domi – Bobby McMann
Defense
Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit – Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Goaltenders:
Scratched: Dakota Mermis, Philippe Myers, David Kampf, Artur Akhtyamov, Nicholas Robertson
Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body)