Whether you measure them through basic stats, advanced stats or the simple eye test, the Senators aren't going anywhere unless their goaltending improves.
Since the Craig Anderson era, the Ottawa Senators have largely been stuck with porous NHL goaltending.
Do you remember the start of the 2020-21 NHL season and the all-Canadian North Division? Matt Murray put up an .893 save percentage, and the Senators had the worst save percentage in the NHL at .895.
The team has not been in the top 20 in team save percentage since 2016-17 when they went to the Eastern Conference finals. Since then, they were 30th, 29th, 26th, dead last, and 24th last season. This season, the Senators’ current team save percentage ranks them 29th in the NHL at .884.
Contrast where this year’s team is with where they could be. The Senators’ expected goals against ranked them 10th in the NHL, but they are 28th in goals against per game at 3.53.
The Senators are also 12th best in their percentage of goals off rebounds, meaning the goalies are mainly being beaten off the first shot.
The Senators have been playing a two-goalie system this year. Anton Forsberg has the 3rd worst high danger save percentage in the league at .567. Meanwhile, Joonas Korpisalo is middle-of-the-pack, ranking 41st with a .758 save percentage off high-danger chances. That’s not the end of it: Forsberg also has the 10th-worst low-danger save percentage in the NHL. Korpisalo has the 5th worst medium-danger save percentage.
The Senators need to get more stops on easy, average, and higher-danger shots. Their goalies are not making the required saves. The Senators deep goaltending problems are personified in the fact that both Korpisalo and Forsberg have the 4th and 7th worst goals saved above expected in the NHL this season.
Don’t believe the stats? Just use the eye test from the Senators recent road trip. In the second game of their road trip, the Senators played the Dallas Stars, managing to take an early 3-1 lead in the first period; 10 seconds later, Anton Forsberg let in a weak Esa Lindell shot then sank to his knees in frustration.
Later, the Senators are on the power play, up 4-2, when Thomas Harley came in, short-handed, to shove a weak backhand past Forsberg. In both cases, the Senators lost the momentum. Eventually, it led to a Dallas win in a game where the Senators should have taken at least a point.
In the next game against the Vegas Golden Knights, the Senators took a 2-1 lead in the first period, then Korpisalo let in a weak Jonathan Marchessault wrister that changed the momentum of the game, and Vegas ended up thumping the Senators 6-3.
Against Arizona, the Sens were holding on for dear life, up 3-2. Korpisalo had stood on his head but then let in a bad angle goal to Clayton Keller tie the game and the Senators would eventually lose 4-3 in regulation.
In all these games, the Senators were in a good position when their goalies let in leaky goals that changed the momentum.