Given the cap situation, it's hard to picture Dominik Kubalik or Vladimir Tarasenko being in Ottawa after the March 8th trade deadline.
The Ottawa Senators have points in six of their last seven games, but at the risk of being a Debbie Downer, some serious decisions need to be made about re-signing or moving certain members of the roster.
Obviously, with the recent improvement in structure and defensive awareness, some fans may still be dreaming of a second Hamburglar run. But it would take a run similar to Edmonton's 15-game winning streak to overcome the 17-point gap between the Senators and a wild card spot.
It’s time to live in reality. The Senators need to plan for tomorrow, not today.
From a UFA perspective, it’s easy to see that Dominik Kubalik needs to be relocated. He's better than his numbers show, but there is little doubt that his future lies elsewhere.
Rourke Chartier has been a pleasant surprise this season. Does he deserve to be in the lineup? Absolutely. Does his three points in 31 games and being a regular contributor to the third-worst penalty kill in the league warrant one-way money? That seems unlikely. It’s not a player you want to lose. However, a two-year deal with the first year at two-way money would be the best he could hope for.
The real UFA decision is what to do with 32-year-old winger Vladimir Tarasenko. His top-shelf goal against the Boston Bruins on Thursday night is proof that the release is still there. hHe's pace for 25 goals, and Ridly Greig are dominating the rest of the Senators in plus-minus, each sporting a plus 16.
However, Tarasenko took a one-year deal in the hopes of following it up with a long-term deal. Sens GM Steve Staios needs to be careful here.
In a perfect world, Tarasenko would stay at reasonable money and term that would allow for things like Jake Sanderson’s new contract. However, players and their agents are not typically reasonable, and Tarasenko is probably looking for that last home run deal.
Looking into the microscope, would the Senators want to extend Claude Giroux at the end of next season, or have Tarasenko’s deal get in the way? If they had to choose, the answer would be simple.
Tarasenko has a no-trade clause, which means he determines where he goes or doesn’t. However, his production would mean a lot to a team like the New Jersey Devils, who have just lost Michael McLeod indefinitely, or perhaps the New York Rangers, where he was dealt last year for a conditional first rounder.
The RFA decisions include Erik Brannstrom, Parker Kelly, Mads Sogaard and Shane Pinto.
Though nothing has to be done about any of these players before the NHL trade deadline, the key piece is Pinto.
For a player who has the dubious distinction of being the first in the modern era to be suspended for violating the league’s gambling policy, he seems like anything but damaged goods.
Pinto was welcomed with open arms by his teammates, the fans and media. His impact upon returning to the lineup was instantaneous and he likely should have been signed to an extension in the summer, given his previous performance. Instead, $5 million was committed to Tarasenko.
Which of these two players is likely to be a part of the long-term future of this club? The answer seems obvious.
Pinto is 23 and his best years are ahead of him. He is eligible to sign an extension right now. If you’ll pardon the expression, Pinto’s camp may want to gamble on him for the rest of the season to gain leverage with the Senators in a negotiation.
However, this suspension may have cost Pinto more than just 41 games pay. His camp may want to lock in some security, and it would behoove the Senators to get to the table now and work something out. And they will.
It’s a difficult decision to have to make, but with Pinto and Sanderson starting new deals this fall, and Claude Giroux and Jakob Chychrun eligible for extensions, it's hard to imagine the Senators being able to afford what Tarasenko will want as well.