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    Graeme Nichols
    Feb 2, 2025, 23:39

    Merilainen spoke to The Hockey News Ottawa this week about this very possibility, along with his appreciation for Ottawa's fan support.

    If there is one welcoming recurrence for the Ottawa Senators over the past several weeks, it has been their goaltenders' performance. Whenever one was beset by an injury or faltered, another stepped up.

    It began when Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg went down. It was Leevi Merilainen who ascended the organization's depth chart and emerged as a prospective candidate to be the team's goaltender of the future.

    Through 12 appearances, Merilainen has recorded an 8-3-1 record, a 1.99 goals against average, three shutouts, and a .925 save percentage. The only major blip in an otherwise successful start was his January 21st start against the New York Rangers, in which he was mercifully pulled. That night in Madison Square Garden was one of the team's flattest performances of the season. After a second Rangers goal was scored and overturned because of an offside challenge, Travis Green decided to spare Merilainen from playing the rest of that game.

    It did not help that the Rangers game was Merilainen's first start since the Senators' thrilling overtime win over the Boston Bruins in which he allowed five goals. These consecutive starts allowed the veteran Forsberg to reclaim the net.

    Forsberg allowed three goals on 80 shots for a .963 save percentage in his next three starts. These performances may have ultimately saved Forsberg his job. The 7-9-1 record, 2.87 goals against average and .893 save percentage still look relatively pedestrian, considering how strong of a defensive team the Senators have become.

    Their respective performances raised questions about how the Senators will handle their goaltending situation. Those were answered on Sunday afternoon when the Senators announced that Merilainen had been optioned to Belleville.

    It is a bittersweet announcement. The good news is that Linus Ullmark has worked his way back from an undisclosed back injury. After a few weeks of skating and participating in team practices, the Senators' marquee goaltender is healthy and ready to perform.

    On the other hand, the Senators are demoting their best statistical goaltender, who has enjoyed the most recent success.

    According to Evolving-Hockey's goals saved above expected (GSAx) data, Merilainen has stopped 5.57 more goals than expected based on their statistical modelling, trailing only Ullmark's 8.23. It is worth noting that this statistic is cumulative, so Ullmark's is higher because he has played in twice as many games as Merilainen. (For what it is worth, Forsberg's contributed a -2.32 GSAx.)

    Interestingly, when looking at the site's proprietary 'wins above replacement' value (WAR), their proprietary metric believes that Merilainen (1.0 WAR) already has created slightly more value than Ullmark (0.9 WAR) while easily surpassing Forsberg's (0.1 WAR).

    Obviously, more goes into the organization's decision than just performance.

    The 22-year-old Merilainen is the youngest of the three with the most contract flexibility. His entry-level contract afforded the Senators the right to move him to Belleville without having to place the goaltender on waivers.

    Ullmark's two injuries this season have given the organization pause to consider moving Forsberg, their veteran backup.

    Admittedly, waiving Forsberg is not ideal because he would likely get claimed without returning the Senators an asset. And, if an injury felled one of Merilainen or Ullmark, it would put the team in a situation where they would have to ask Mads Sogaard to play NHL minutes. This season, his injuries and struggles at the AHL and NHL levels have compounded the Senators' goaltending depth. He cannot be relied on to play meaningful minutes.

    If the Senators were to cut bait with Forsberg, they would have to go to the market to find a veteran replacement who may or may not be as good as Forsberg.

    Although it carries some risk, trading Forsberg for assets would make sense if the Senators believe they can reallocate his salary to address another need. Clearing his $2.75 million cap hit off the books would allow the Senators to look at addressing more pressing needs on the roster - like another top-six winger and a third-pairing right-shot defenceman.

    While it would be easy to look at Merilainen's performance this season through the lens of it being a small sample, what I find impressive about his play is that there have not been any moments where his performances feel unsustainable. His squareness and rebound control have prevented him from overly relying on his athleticism to bail him out of second, third and fourth chances. 

    Conversely, shouldn't similar concerns be shared for Anton Forsberg's recent stretch if we are talking about small samples? He allowed Washington four goals in the Senators' 5-4 win on Thursday in his most recent start.

    Regardless, thanks to Ullmark's return, there is something to be said about playing time and the importance of having a young goaltender playing regularly. On the other hand, I wonder whether any negative impacts could be created by taking a successful young player away from this environment, facilities, teammates and coaches.

    Earlier this week, I talked to Merilainen about his successful start to his Senators career.

    "Just going along with it," Merilainen said, referring to his success. "I feel like all the confidence comes from practice. Having a good set of practices at the start and then playing my game and see how that goes. It's been going pretty well so far.

    "It's been fun. It's been quite an experience and I'm just having fun."

    When asked about the presence of Ullmark and his imminent return and what it could mean for his future, Merilainen did not show a ton of concern.

    "Yeah, you have to go day by day and see what happens," the goaltender explained. "You can't really think about it too much. You've got to be ready to play when your time is to play. If there's not time to play anymore, then it's fine. We'll see. I don't know how that goes for me."

    Merilainen has embraced the experience and support of the veteran goaltenders.

    "Oh they're fun guys," he said. "I like them. They're Swede, (*laugh*) so it's a little (different) there. But, I like them. They're both great guys.

    "They give me a lot of tips when I have some questions and stuff and they're there to support me too."

    The rookie has also recognized and appreciated the fans' support whenever he is introduced at home as the starting goaltender.

    "Yeah, it's been crazy. I never would have assumed that would be the case. But that's special every time standing there. That's something crazy I've never experienced before. I love that."

    Merilainen's whirlwind romance with the fans may be taking a break now, but with goalie health and performance both running so hot and cold this season, he might back before anyone has time to miss him.