Elliotte Friedman says an agent told him that some NHL teams don't want their free agents using Ottawa players – including Tim Stutzle – as a comparable in contract negotiations.

Former Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion can't catch a break. Even the moves he got credit for are now being discredited.

In the latest episode of the '32 Thoughts Podcast', analyst Elliotte Friedman offhandedly shared an interesting Ottawa Senators-related nugget of information when discussing the status of the Detroit Red Wings' remaining restricted free agents - Jonatan Berggren and Lucas Raymond.

In Raymond's case specifically, Friedman stated previously that the new extension Seth Jarvis' signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer could be a reasonable comparable because both players were of a similar age and had one 30-goal season under their respective belts. The Canes' winger inked an eight-year, $59.6 million contract carrying an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $7.42 million.

After making that comparison, Friedman proceeded to share an anecdote about an interaction he had with an NHL agent.

"I thought (the comparison) was perfect," Friedman said. "I had an agent tell me, 'I guarantee you that you are wrong in terms of what Raymond's people are looking for.' I said, 'Oh yeah, why do you think I'm wrong?' And he said, 'Because there's other players like (Ottawa Senators centre Tim) Stützle, who's at a higher number than Seth Jarvis is.'"

Stützle is about to enter the second year of his own eight-year contract extension that he signed on September 7, 2022. The German centre's $8.35 million AAV is higher than Jarvis', but not egregiously.

Friedman would continue on.

"If you're an agent, you're always gonna pick the highest possible comparable. In this case, I think it's Stützle. Now, what he did tell me though, this agent, is that there are some teams out there who really try to remove the Ottawa contracts, like Stützle's as a comparable. They talk about that as, 'That's a contract that Ottawa needed to do because of where they were at the time and the message they were trying to send their market at the time.' 

"But, the teams think it's too high and they say, like (the agent) laughed, he said, 'I guarantee you, they brought out Stützle (as a comparable) and Yzerman said, 'Don't even bring that here. That's their situation and that's not our situation.'"

Stützle signed his contract with a year left on his entry-level contract. In that final year, his 2022-23 season, he scored 39 goals and 90 points. Both numbers eclipse, especially so with the point total, what Jarvis has accomplished in his most productive NHL season (33 goals, 67 points in 2023-24).

Granted, last season was a down year for Stützle. Although he only scored 18 goals, he still produced at nearly a point-per-game pace, with 70 points in 75 games. That point production would represent a career-high for Jarvis, but a consideration Friedman may be trying to make is that while there are similarities in production, the Canes' product has put up better defensive metrics.

There is no disputing that Jarvis has put together some strong defensive efforts. Hockeyviz's data shows that when Jarvis is on the ice, he has a positive isolated defensive impact regarding shot and expected goal suppression.

Jarvis has benefited from playing on a significantly more talented and structured group over the past several seasons than Ottawa, however. If the roles were reversed, Stützle's defensive performance and play would look markedly better than it has. In saying that, Stützle's impacts have not even been that bad. Hockeyviz, again, shows that he has been league average or better in his isolated defensive impact over the last three seasons.

Considering his pedigree, age and past performance already, it seems odd to characterize Stützle's as an "overpay". No one will dispute its necessity as a contract that the Senators needed to get done to restore confidence in this fan base after enduring years of managerial and ownership malpractice. Management gambled on his upside, possibly paying him more upfront to get those less expensive years down the road when inflation will inevitably make his AAV more efficient, and the team and player should be better. His deal should only get better with time.

Does the Senators' core have some contracts that could be problematic and complicate their cap situation?

Absolutely.

Josh Norris signed a massive extension (eight years, $7.95 million AAV) following his 35-goal campaign in 2021-22. When healthy, Norris has shown that his shot remains a weapon and is still a threat to score. Unfortunately, several shoulder injuries that have necessitated corrective surgery have plagued his career since.

Thomas Chabot at $8.0 million through the 2027-28 season feels like a slight overpay for a defenceman who has struggled to stay healthy and play adequate defence over the last few seasons. From the team's charity golf tournament earlier this week, Chabot acknowledged that surgery was performed to correct a wrist injury that bothered him for the past two and a half years. Hopefully, this operation and adding a natural right-shot defensive partner will allow him to play at a higher level that suits his salary.

Aside from those two, the rest of Ottawa's contracts belonging to the young core seem reasonable. Brady Tkachuk's extension looks like a below-market-value deal. Drake Batherson's contract is another efficient one. Jake Sanderson is the team's most valuable defenceman and is positioned to have a big season if he can improve upon his five-on-five points per 60 rate. Shane Pinto inked a market value bridge deal.

Norris' contract is obviously the riskiest, but his health is out of his control (within reason). It is impossibly difficult to project the chance of injuries accurately, but injuries are what can hold him back. The Senators believed in a young centre who showed two-way aptitude and could score 30 goals and paid him accordingly. It may not look good now or down the road, and sure, a bridge deal may have worked out better, but that is revisionist history.  

Quibbling over whether Stützle makes $800k more than Jarvis seems odd.

If this were a conversation about the market and how that Colin White extension, for example, was an optics-driven move to change a narrative in this market by a desperate general manager, I would agree.

Stützle's deal is not that, however.