The Toronto Maple Leafs are the favourites in the upcoming Battle of Ontario, but this series is anything but a sure thing for Toronto.
After 21 years without a playoff meeting, the Battle of Ontario is back.
The Leafs enter the series as favourites, but don’t expect a cakewalk. The Senators have plenty going for them and could make life miserable for Toronto and its faithful. Here are five reasons for optimism on the Senators' side heading into Round One, which begins on Sunday.
Intense Pressure vs. House Money
The Leafs have to win. Toronto’s high-priced core—Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares—has just one playoff series win and will be feeling the pressure more than ever, considering their opponent. With Marner and Tavares nearing free agency, this could be the final chapter of this era. Another early exit might finally trigger a total shakeup from the top down.
The weight of expectations for the Leafs is massive. Expectations that have never been met. Even their perfect playoff record against Ottawa is at risk. The Leafs truly have everything to lose, and a loss to the Senators would be seen as a rock bottom disaster in the Toronto market.
Ottawa, meanwhile, is playing with house money. It’s their first playoff appearance in eight years. The city is buzzing just to be back in the dance, and the players have been fighting to prove people wrong all season. Even a sweep wouldn’t tarnish that progress, but if the Sens win one of the first two games, Toronto will be in full-blown panic mode.
Regular Season? Advantage Ottawa
Ottawa swept the season series 3-0. Toronto hasn’t beaten them since 2023. While the playoffs reset everything, that kind of dominance builds confidence. Historically, regular season sweeps and higher placement in the standings haven’t always translated into playoff wins (Ottawa found that out in 2001), but this time, it highlights just how close these teams really are.
Under Travis Green, the Sens have tightened up defensively. Their goals-against average before the final game of the season (2.80) is nearly identical to Toronto’s (2.79). While the Leafs' offense has been explosive, that kind of production is harder to sustain in tight playoff hockey. Good defensive habits and timely saves are more likely to carry on into the playoffs than a high octane offense, and this is a dead heat between both teams in those departments.
Both Teams Are Hot—and Healthy
Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz has been red-hot, undefeated in his last eight starts with a .950 save percentage and three shutouts. He’s been solid behind Toronto’s big, structured D.
But Stolarz has never started a playoff game. Sens fans saw hot goalies like Andrew Hammond turn cold under playoff pressure. The postseason has a way of humbling goalies with no track record who turn into pumpkins at midnight.
Toronto holds a slight special teams edge—about 1–2 percentage points on both the power play and penalty kill—but it’s not insurmountable.
Much ink has been spilled about Toronto’s hot streak to close the season, but don't overlook Ottawa’s form. Since March 1, the Senators are tied for first in the NHL in points, tied with the LA Kings at 35. Toronto sits fifth in that span with 32. Ottawa is also tied for first in the NHL in shutouts, with both Linus Ullmark and Stolarz recording four each. This could come down to whichever goalie makes the final save.
Both teams also enter the series unusually healthy for this time of year—no excuses on the injury front.
Roster Construction: Grit vs. Skill vs. Experience
Toronto has more firepower, no question. Their top six is lethal, and their D is big and punishing. Ottawa counters with a lineup full of chaos agents—players who can agitate, grind, and create havoc in playoff-style hockey.
In a twist of irony, this Senators team more resembles the old Leafs squads that used to bounce Ottawa in the early 2000s. Back then, it was the Sens with the slick talent (Yashin, Hossa, Havlat, Alfredsson), while the Leafs had grinders like Gary Roberts, Shayne Corson, Tie Domi and Darcy Tucker who would shut Ottawa’s stars down. Now, Ottawa brings that same physical and ratty edge with Brady Tkachuk, David Perron, Nick Cousins, and Ridly Grieg. The Senators have an agitator who can throw the Leafs off their game on all four lines.
Tkachuk will especially be a handful. He thrived in the Four Nations tournament, watched his brother hoist the Cup, and should be well rested. He’s ready to put his own stamp on the playoffs.
Ottawa also feeds off the crowd—even if half of it is in blue. This is why we’re still talking about Ridly Grieg’s empty net slapshot over a year later. The “Seven Leafs home games” thing might be overstated, but this team doesn’t mind the noise. In fact, they seem to thrive off it.
Cup experience? Ottawa might have the edge there, too. While Toronto has Stolarz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Steven Lorentz with rings (none in starring roles), along with finalists on the losing side with Calle Jarnkrok and Brandon Carlo, Ottawa counters with Perron, Michael Amadio, and Cousins (who has a series winner against the Leafs in the books); all of whom played significant minutes on Cup runs. Claude Giroux has also been to the Final and is still chasing that elusive ring. He’ll be extra hungry to change that.
Ancient History Doesn’t Matter
Yes, the Leafs beat Ottawa four straight times in the playoffs. But those were different teams, different players, and a different era. Most of the current roster was in diapers playing mini-sticks in the basement the last time these teams met in the postseason.
The only real holdover from those battles? Travis Green, once a thorn in Ottawa’s side, is now coaching them. Daniel Alfredsson, once the captain, is now on the bench as Green's assistant.
It’s been so long that Tie Domi’s 30 year old son is now in the Leafs’ lineup.
The ghosts of the past won’t be skating in this series. What happens next will be written by a brand-new cast—and they don’t care about what happened in 2002.
This is the moment Ontario hockey fans have waited decades for. Don’t expect a sweep either way. This is going to be close, heated, and emotional.
If you’re expecting an easy win, you’re watching the wrong series. But if you’re ready for drama, intensity, and maybe a little chaos, then buckle up.
The Battle of Ontario is back.
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