For two decades now, one of hockey’s most reliable theories has been the so-called American Thanksgiving rule. The theory is simple: if you’re in a playoff position by U.S. Thanksgiving, odds are you’ll still be there in April. Historically, during the past 20 years, more than 75% of teams in playoff spots at that point make the postseason. 

But this season, it's easy to believe things may not go according to Hoyle. Because if American Thanksgiving has taught us anything about the 2025 Eastern Conference, it’s how absurdly bunched up everyone is.

On November 27, just four days ago, the Senators sat second in the Atlantic Division with 28 points. Tampa Bay led with 30, and Boston sat right behind at 28. Over in the Metro, New Jersey topped that group with 31 points, followed by Carolina (30) and Washington (28). The first wild card was held by the Islanders at 28 points, with Pittsburgh clinging to the final wild card with 27.

Congratulations to those eight teams. They're all locked in, right? Yeah, not so much. Not when you had six teams — Montreal, Philadelphia, Detroit, the Rangers, and Florida, all within two points of that final wild card spot. 

One game and two days later, the Senators slipped out of the playoffs entirely. That’s how tight it is. From second in the Atlantic on Turkey Day to the outside looking in before Thanksgiving weekend is out. 

Tampa and Carolina may be the leaders in their divisions, but even they’re barely ahead of the pack. Their divisional leads provide them with a mere five-point cushion above the non-playoff line. That’s one bad week away from panic mode.

Even more telling? Every single team in the East, including last-place Buffalo, is within five points of a playoff spot. 

The only Thanksgiving rule certainties seem to be Dallas and Colorado out West. The Avalanche are on a record pace with an outrageous record of 18–1-6, and an .840 points percentage. That's 1970s Montreal Canadiens stuff. Dallas isn't far off at 17–5-4. Those are really the only teams who've bought themselves room for error and the ability to coast through the occasional lull.

In the East? No one has earned that luxury.

James Duthie and the TSN panel often joke about how quiet trade deadlines can get. This March's show could be an all-timer. When the entire league is rocking the Dumb and Dumber meme (So you're telling me there's a chance), leaving only a handful of franchises in seller mode, it becomes nearly impossible to find dance partners. Why sell if you’re only three points out? 

If parity continues at this level, clubs may just sit there, paralyzed in March, unwilling to blink.

So, does the old Thanksgiving logic still hold? For the Senators, the answer is already obvious. They were in second place just days ago. They’re now out of the playoff picture. Will they stay here, or will they go on a run? The only thing I know is that Thanksgiving milestones aren't helping me decide. Not this year.

Eventually, the cream will rise, but in a cap league where rouges are frequently handed out to the loser, and skill can be so easily neutered by smothering team systems, it might take longer than we're used to.

Steve Warne
The Hockey News 

This article was originally published at The Hockey News Ottawa. Read more:

Josh Norris Ready For Another Comeback With Buffalo
Former Senator Unleashes Beatdown On Red Wings Star Defenseman
Senators Call Up New Defenseman From AHL Belleville
Ullmark Trades In Game Day Naps For Computer Games
Former Senators Prospect Finally Finds NHL Home With Rival Boston Bruins