Here's our review of five early Ottawa Senator trends, both positive and negative.
As the Ottawa Senators begin their 2024 season, the first five games have revealed promising developments and concerning trends. Here’s a breakdown of the five standout positives and negatives from their early campaign.
The Good
1. Jake Sanderson’s Ascendancy
One of the brightest spots for the Senators has been the impressive play of Jake Sanderson. The young defenseman has not only solidified his role on the power play—collecting an impressive seven points in just five games, with six of those coming from power play opportunities—but he’s also been a key player on the penalty kill. Sanderson leads the team in average ice time, outpacing even veteran Thomas Chabot, demonstrating his importance on both special teams and at even strength. His ability to impact the game every shift has made him a cornerstone of the team’s success.
2. A Red-Hot Power Play
Speaking of special teams, the Senators' power play has been nothing short of electric. With eight goals in their first five games, they are tied for the second-best power play in the NHL, only behind the undefeated Winnipeg Jets. Their ability to capitalize on power play opportunities is vital, especially in close games, and it reflects a strong execution of strategy and skill among the players.
3. Strong Third-Line Metrics
While the third line of Amadio, Perron, and Pinto may not have lit up the score sheet just yet, their underlying numbers tell a different story. With a remarkable 68.32% expected goals percentage in 33:21 of five-on-five ice time, this trio is generating quality chances and controlling play, while limiting their opponents as well. With Perron away for personal reasons and Amadio moving up to play with Tkachuk and Stutzle, it will be interesting to see how all the chess pieces look moving forward
4. Resilience in Adversity
The Senators have shown considerable resilience despite injuries and setbacks early into this season. With Linus Ullmark sidelined, the team has managed to remain competitive, demonstrating mental toughness and an ability to bounce back in close games where they previously would have let it slip away. Additionally, their defensive depth, which was a major question mark heading into the season, has proven to be reliable, even with Artem Zub out of the lineup.
5. Josh Norris Finding His Groove
After undergoing his third shoulder surgery, Josh Norris has been slowly regaining his form. Though he started the season quietly, he has exploded for three goals in his last two games, reminiscent of his 35-goal campaign from a few seasons back. His resurgence is crucial for the Senators, providing a much-needed offensive boost as the team navigates high expectations this season.
The Bad
1. Goaltending Depth Issues
Despite the strong offensive performances, the depth at the goaltending position has been a significant concern. With Ullmark missing three games, the team has struggled mightily, posting a dismal .871 save percentage. Both Forsberg and Sogaard have faced challenges, and Sogaard's recent injury since being returned to Belleville further exacerbates the problem. This lack of stability behind Ullmark could be detrimental as the season progresses.
2. Chabot/Jensen Pairing Struggles
The pairing of Chabot and Jensen has not lived up to expectations. With a low expected goals percentage of 43.26% over 62 minutes playing together at five-on-five, their defensive performance has been shaky at best. Chabot, in particular, has faced challenges at five-on-five, being on the ice for 11 goals against while only being on for four goals for. This defensive inconsistency is not ideal for a top-four pairing and may need to be addressed if these results continue.
3. Limited 5v5 Offense
While the Senators are scoring at an impressive rate of 3.8 goals per game, the majority of this scoring has been driven by the power play. At five-on-five, the team is producing a mere 2.25 expected goals per 60 minutes, ranking 29th in the NHL. This reliance on special teams is concerning and highlights the need for more balanced offensive production.
4. Injury Concerns Mounting
Injuries are already beginning to pile up for the Senators. Key players like Zub, Greig, and Ullmark have all missed multiple games, creating a strain on the depth of the lineup. Although Ullmark is set to return, the absence of other players, along with veteran David Perron missing a three-game road trip for personal reasons, poses a challenge for the team's depth and overall chemistry.
5. Road Woes Continue
The Senators' struggles on the road continue to be a thorn in their side. Despite a strong home record of 126-115-29, their last seven seasons of missing the playoffs has been highlighted by a brutal 88-155-24 record on the road. After dropping their first road game of the season against Montreal, establishing confidence on this upcoming three-game road trip is important for the team's success going forward.
The balance between harnessing the positives—like the impressive power play and the performance of players like Sanderson and Norris—while mitigating the negatives, particularly in goaltending and defensive pairings, will determine their playoff fate this season.