The Sens' front office should have this team's problems figured out by now, and nothing that happens in the final 16 games should change anyone's mind.
As the Ottawa Senators prepared Tuesday to face the Boston Bruins, the number one team in the NHL, it’s important to consider how Ottawa's final 16 games should be viewed.
In considering their remaining schedule, they have nine games left against teams currently in a playoff spot. That includes two against both Boston and Florida, one each against Winnipeg and the Rangers, and 10 games on the road.
It sounds tough, but they do tend to play well when no one expects them to.
Therein lies the danger. The Senators' fan base is so eager to pull some positives out of the season to take into next year that anything down the stretch could give inflated hope and become Fool’s Gold.
Here are some risks to consider:
Goaltending
No one would dispute that the Senators' goaltending has been subpar this season.
In Bull Durham, Crash Davis explains that the difference between a .300 hitting Hall of Famer and a .250 journeyman is one hit per week over the course of the season.
Applying that logic to starting goaltending, the difference between a star goalie and a backup is one extra bad goal per week.
This is how Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg have felt this year. They can look great for 95% of a game and hurt you with back breaker.
Given the schedule, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to watch Korpisalo and Forsberg play some of their best hockey.
The Senators are not expected to win. When they have been expected to win – against the likes of Arizona, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago – they didn’t play up to the occasion.
While they might raise their save percentages and collect some wins, this shouldn’t fool Steve Staios into thinking the problem is solved.
When it mattered, goaltending (like a lot of things) wasn’t good enough.
Erik Brannstrom
Obviously, if Dominik Kubalik registers a goal in every game, it won’t result in a contract extension.
Brannstrom is a different case. He's currently playing some of his best hockey as a Senator, being praised for his shot blocking and defensive play. Brannstrom was not brought here for that reason. He was brought here to be a point-producing puck mover with star quality.
It’s all well and good that he's adapted to the role he's in right now. However, he has two more points than Jacob Bernard-Docker and one fewer goal.
Brannstrom is eligible for arbitration and his comparable in that process could be Rasmus Sandin, who just signed a four-year extension with Washington at $4.6 million AAV. They are literally the same player in age, stature and both shoot left. Sandin has more offensive upside but he also gets bigger and better minutes.
If Brannstrom puts up some additional points down the stretch, that should be ammunition for Staios to move him – not to sign him to an extension he can’t live up to.
Parker Kelly
Kelly has rebounded nicely this season after a dismal campaign last year. He is an RFA who makes less than the current league minimum.
Should he be extended? Absolutely. This is the kind of player that teams need in a cap world. That said, he has 14 pts this season and so does Dominik Kubalik. The latter makes far more money.
If Kelly runs in a few more points between now and season’s end, that should not put him in line for a multi-year extension at unreasonable money.
Tim Stutzle
Though contract isn’t an issue, Staios shoudn’t be fooled by Stutzle’s dirty dangle against Carolina or if he gets to 90 points like last year. Change is needed in the way he plays. There is still a lot of "solo" to his game.
Though his skill is sublime, when the new sheriff is appointed head coach, he needs to give Stutzle the same speech Scotty Bowman gave Steve Yzerman. What do you want your legacy to be?
Steve Staios needs to put an asterisk beside any of the uplifting moments between now and the end of the season lest Fool’s Gold cloud his judgment.
Generally speaking, exit interviews should not be pleasant this spring, regardless of what happens in these last 16 games.