The vibes are immaculate, expectations are rising, and things are in place for a big turnaround...but…
With pre-season (mercifully) nearing its conclusion and another season of NHL hockey upon us, things are looking up for the Senators and their fanbase. There are plenty of reasons for optimism. However, Senators fans have been here before. Splashy acquisitions, significant changes, young stars another year older, stop me if you've heard any of these in the past few years.
This year could be different. Might be. Should be. This team has to take that meaningful step forward one of these seasons, right? Let's look at five reasons the Sens will finally turn the corner this year. Of course, as supporters of this team have seen in the past, each of these reasons for optimism comes with a dose of fragility and a glaring "but" attached to them.
1) The vibes around the team are immaculate - From the outside, the players have come to town with a new sense of focus. Past years have opened with a fun attitude and excitement that gave way to a country club atmosphere. There were significant distractions like Shane Pinto's suspension, botched trades leading to lost first-round picks and delayed closing of the team sale. There's a welcome silence and a controlled flow of information now. Everyone seems happy to be here and pulling in the same direction. There's just a group of hungry players talking calmly and professionally about how they're approaching the challenge in front of them, supported by new cup-winning veterans. They look like they're having fun in interviews and practice, but fun isn't priority one. This looks like a team ready to focus on the ice and get to work, led by a new coach in Travis Green, who's saying all the right things, preaching accountability and putting a system in place.
But… Name any Senators' controversy in recent years, from the implosion of LeBreton Rendezvous to Uber-gate to the Pinto suspension. What did they all have in common? They all seemed to come out of nowhere and took everyone by surprise. You'll forgive Senators fans for waiting for the other shoe to drop. A usual start with 2 or 3 wins in their first ten games, and those immaculate vibes will evaporate.
Also, that coach who's saying and doing all the right things? He has a losing career record and has only seen the playoffs once.
2) The new acquisitions look good - The prospective lines for this team are less top-heavy and more balanced throughout the lineup. There are Cup-winning veterans in place to guide the younger players. The team has enviable centre depth and a balanced top four on defence. Carter Yakemchuk is doing everything he can to force his way onto the roster as a teenager.
Most importantly, there's a goalie in place: Linus Ullmark. He has a Vezina Trophy on his mantle and has been a steadying influence in pre-season with highlight-reel saves and calm play while under fire.
The team has gone 3-1-1 in pre-season games as of this writing. Take that stat for what's worth – an excellent pre-season record and two nickels will get you ten cents – but most Sens fans would gladly take that start for the real season.
But… Injuries are a thing. The fanbase took a collective gasp as all of Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot didn't finish a recent chippy game against the Montreal Canadiens. Josh Norris played, looked good, and finished the game, but every hit he takes this season will be greeted with gritted teeth after all his shoulder issues.
This good-looking lineup would suddenly look pedestrian once you remove one or two players and move depth pieces further up the lineup. One Ullmark injury means Anton Forsberg needs to carry the mail, a job he hasn't been up to in the past. One defenceman injury makes a mess out of the pairings. All three of their top centres have had recent injury woes. It goes from "yay" to "yikes" in a hurry as soon as you start plugging holes.
More than anything, this Senator's team needs some luck in the health department, and that has not been the case for a long time.
3) The Atlantic Division looks more vulnerable than it has in years - Hockey fans know it's been the toughest division in professional hockey. Four of the best teams in the NHL have been hogging the top 4 spots for a good long while now. However, cracks in the foundations are showing for all those teams.
- The Boston Bruins's acrimonious negotiations with Jeremy Swayman are giving him 64 million reasons to cut bait with the organization. Can Boston's vaunted defence overcome Joonas Korpisalo's atrocious stats from last season if they need to run with him?
- Can the Florida Panthers avoid the cup hangover and stay elite after two punishing cup runs in a row, especially after losing a few useful pieces that got them there? Probably, but never a given.
- Tampa Bay replaced their leader, Steven Stamkos, with Jake Guentzel, which is probably a lateral move. And their roster is aging rapidly. After being a playoff juggernaut for years, the Panthers have wrestled the "best team in Florida" title from them.
The Leafs are running it back yet again with their high-priced talent that hasn't gotten it done beyond the regular season in the past. This time, they have two goalies who have never played 30 games in a season and a defence that is relying heavily on new players on the wrong side of 30.
On paper, the Senators have enough talent to catch at least one of these teams on the way down the standings.
But… The other bottom feeders in the division on long playoff droughts have also improved.
Detroit has a big question mark in goal, but some great young talent and a top six that's young but experienced and can put the puck in the net. They're hungry after missing out on a playoff spot by the smallest margin possible.
Buffalo has to make the playoffs one of these years, don't they? They have some great pieces and an enviable top 3 of young studs on defence. They can also lean on the "young guns are a year older and wiser" idea that Ottawa is leaning on too.
While probably destined for last place in the Atlantic, Montreal is building something the right way, with passionate players learning from an excellent coach in Martin St. Louis.
Could we see a total inversion of the Atlantic standings, with all 4 bottom feeders getting in or near a playoff spot and a few of the juggernauts dropping out? Probably not, but it's not as far-fetched as you think.
4) This franchise is due for a turnaround in luck - There were plenty of insane stats surrounding this team last season and in previous years that were well beyond the realm of the expected and didn't necessarily have to do with the quality of play on the ice. They set a club record by playing seven goalies in one season due to injuries. They let in a goal on the first two shots of the game over 20 times with worst-in-the-league goaltending last season. How about a 1-14-1 record against the Western Conference on the road last year? Or the abysmal start to the season for years running.
Heck, even Joonas Korpisalo getting blinded mid-game by a single beam of sunlight in an indoor arena suggests that this team has had more of its share of old-fashioned bad luck to go with poor play.
A regression to the mean in these categories probably means a sizable jump in the standings. They can't possibly hit these ridiculous levels of slanted karma yet again. Could they?
But… Being due and actually receiving some luck are different things. There isn't a limited supply of bad luck. Hockey is a game of inches, bounces, and randomness. A little good fortune will go a long way to turning things around, but that's never guaranteed.
How do you define turning a corner? Is it a playoff spot? Is it getting close but instilling the proper habits and putting the league on notice? Who knows? But barring another disastrous start to the season, it should be fascinating to watch. Things seem to be headed in the right direction, but…
Well, with this team, there's always a "but."