Inside the Senators' Gamble on Samuel Ersson, And Why They Believe It Can Work

Given the Ottawa Senators’ backup goaltenders’ struggles last season, it was hardly a surprise to see the reaction to the organization’s curious decision to acquire and eventually sign Samuel Ersson.

As an impending restricted free agent, the Senators acquired Ersson on June 26th from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Having come off a two-year contract with an average annual value of $1.4 million, Ersson needed a qualifying offer of $1.6 million for the Senators to retain his rights.

Under normal circumstances, that would not be a concern, except Ersson just finished a season in which he finished with the fifth-worst goals saved above expected (-6.09 GSAx) mark in the league. And in his 2024-25 campaign, he finished with a league-worst -22.09 GSAx.

To Ersson’s credit, he has posted a winning record in each of his four seasons in the league before arriving in Ottawa, but the underlying metrics have been underwhelming throughout his career. He has been one of the league's worst statistical goaltenders since his 2024-25 sophomore season.

The Senators ultimately decided not to qualify Ersson, fearing he could take the team to arbitration and net a bigger payday than his qualifying offer. Rather than risk that possibility, the Senators inked him to a two-year contract carrying a $2.2 million average annual value.

It was an interesting, risk-laden choice, especially after general manager Steve Staios acknowledged the backup goaltending position was his biggest misstep last season during his end-of-season media availability.

“As far as the goaltending, when I talk about making decisions to help this team move forward, the one where we didn't do a good job was on the backup position,” Staios admitted. “Initially, the process in our room when we discussed it was on Leevi (Merilainen’s) performance.

“We still believe in Leevi, but his numbers were better than any of the alternative goaltenders that we were looking at. I didn't do a good enough job of supporting Linus (Ullmark) and that position. And I probably didn't put Leevi in the best position to succeed either.”

Supporting Linus Ullmark is paramount.

The Senators’ number one goaltender has endured through injuries and went public last season acknowledging his struggles with mental health.

When he is on the ice and on top of his game, Ullmark’s been every bit the goaltender the Senators believed they were acquiring in the 2024 offseason. The Senators are 45-11-6 when Ullmark records a save percentage of .900 or higher.

I asked the general manager during a one-on-one conversation ahead of the start of the season about the organization’s belief in Ersson’s blend of size and athleticism. More specifically, we discussed how a process-driven organization in a results-oriented industry could believe in Ersson’s natural talent while balancing the reality that Ersson’s statistical body of work to this point has not been particularly strong.

“It was a long discussion, and not just with Maciej (Szwoch), but with (Justin Peters),” Staios recalled. “Like, Petey's watched this guy play. Petey told me, ‘I would be extremely excited to work with this. The talent is there.’

“So is this a question of, do we put him in our environment, with our coaching staff, give him the support, and he realizes his talent? It's a low-risk move. It's a low-cost move that lets us do other things on the roster. There are other things in goaltending as well, like the relationship between the starter and backup, which you can't quantify.

"As much as we want to dig in on the numbers, and I do think that that's something that we've done very well because we're extremely data-driven to look at opportunities, we do take a step back and really ask the question on some of the unquantifiables because there are times and moments and discussions within our process where clearly there's a move that would support the data better. And I'll make the decision that, ‘Hey, there's something here. The more we dig in on this one, there's something here.’”

Knowing that the organization has confidence in his talent level means a lot to Ersson.

“It's huge,” he acknowledged. “It's good to have the support and feel the faith from the organization. For me, I see it as a great challenge coming to a team that's on the rise.

“(The Senators) have done a lot of good things, both in the offseason and over the last couple of years. It feels like they've been building something really good. And for me to come in here and try to contribute to that, it's a day-by-day mentality of competing every day and trying to add to that competition level and edge. That’s what I try to bring day to day.”

Working with Szwoch and Peters, Ersson understands the changes that the coaching staff are trying to implement into his game.

“Even in a short period of time (together), I feel like it's been a pretty easy transition to start working together,” Ersson stated. “When the pieces that we're trying to add are (identified), we're seeing them in the same way, and we're working on them. We all have the same goal in mind, which helps. It has been good, and I see the process happening in practice.”

It may feel odd to hang hopes on Ersson, given his history and the position’s previous struggles, but goaltending is such a volatile position. It seems obvious that the Senators are less concerned with a player’s past results than what they believe a player can do for them in the future. So, under that lens, the move certainly fits with the organization’s other decisions to bet on low-cost upside plays like Andre Burakovsky, Jordan Spence, Warren Foegele, and Michael Amadio.

And given that volatile nature of the position, maybe there is a reality where Ersson plays well. The organization has some familiarity with his game and the confidence to believe they can turn his career around. It speaks to the influence of the newly-hired director of goaltender development, Maciej Szwoch. There does not appear to be any overlap in the respective careers of Ersson and Szwoch in the SHL; but Szwoch worked as a goaltending coach for MODO and Färjestad BK, while Ersson played for Brynäs IF.

Ersson also knows Ullmark from their time as teammates representing Sweden at the Four Nations Face-Off. The goaltender has enjoyed reconnecting with Ullmark during his time in Ottawa.

“Having a goalie partner that is also Swedish is a lot of fun, and for me, it's exciting,” Ersson said, describing his relationship with his battery mate. “I feel like we have a very good relationship in just talking over things.

“Throughout the year, you're in the little goalie circle. You need each other, your goalie coach, and your goalie partner. It's it's very important, so it's been it's been a lot of a lot of fun.”

Speaking to several sources within the goaltending industry, they believe a change of scenery will benefit Ersson.

The change has certainly taken him out of his comfort zone.

“Obviously some things are out of your control, but I think it (can be good),” he explained. “I felt like it's been very good for me (so far). A change of scenery and a new environment can force you to grow as a person and as a player as well.

“So to a certain point, it's a little bit uncomfortable, right? Because I've been in Philly since I came over to North America, you get out of your comfort zone, and that's where you grow. So, in that sense, I think it's really good for me.”

Ersson came off a strong preseason, and he has made two regular season appearances for the Senators. He came on in relief of Ullmark last week in Boston and made his first start the next night in Detroit.

In each of his appearances, Ersson let in a very weak first goal. To his credit, however, he responded well thereafter.

“You can look at it in certain ways, but a goal is a goal,” he said. “It is what it is, and (that’s the attitude) all the time. It's a game of mistakes. Mistakes happen. It's all about how you respond.”

Through his two appearances, he is currently sporting an .886 save percentage, stopping 39 of 44 shots. take away those two fluky goals and Ersson’s save percentage climbs to .929.

Ersson is not focused on that, though.

“It's save percentage,” Ersson said, downplaying the stat. “It's early. You need a bigger sample size. For me, it's a process too. I’m trying to build on my game here and take it step by step while trying to work every day and contribute.”

Ersson will get a chance to earn his first win with the Senators as he gets the start Tuesday night against the St. Louis Blues.

By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa