As of Tuesday morning, Jake Sanderson is the most valuable skater in the NHL, according to Evolving-Hockey's 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric.

The most valuable skater in the league. Let that marinate for a second.

Small sample size of games be damned, the Senators' star left defenceman has accrued the most value in the league, according to one analytics website's proprietary measure that estimates a player's worth in terms of wins, compared to a replacement-level player. (As an aside, the Senators have two players in the top-10, Sanderson and the NHL's 'Second Star of the Week', Drake Batherson.)

WAR is an imperfect metric. Its estimate is useful for comparing players' contributions across the league, but it is not a precise metric. And, with each NHL team playing a dozen games, we should not take it wholly at face value.

To see Sanderson get off to a hot start is not particularly surprising. It is the product of hard work, natural talent and circumstance.

The smooth-skating defender spent most of the offseason back home in Montana, where he would wake up most days at 7:30 am and get after it in the gym built in his garage. Sanderson would work out there for 2.5 to 3 hours before going for a skate or playing another sport to get some cross-training in.

Whatever he was doing worked, as Sanderson was recognized as the Senators' fittest player during testing at training camp.

He is also a student of the game.

"Early in my career, I was definitely a hockey nerd," Sanderson acknowledged. "I feel like I still am, but I've learned to have a little bit of balance just with the busy season. But I like watching hockey at night.

"I work with our coaches who send me videos and clips and whatnot. Obviously, my dad is a scout (for the New Jersey Devils) too. So, we talk about hockey all the time and talk about different players."

Sanderson tends to focus on the Canadian teams when watching games, especially the Senators' division rivals, but he really respects the Colorado Avalanche's style of play.

"Personally, I like watching Colorado a lot," he explains. "That's always a team that I just love to watch because of the way they play and the superstars they have. They are fast-paced and I love watching (Nathan) MacKinnon and (Cale) Makar."

While those superstars have taken home their share of hardware, Sanderson is looking to add some of his own.

After being named to the NHL's 'All-Rookie' team for his 2022-23 season, the PHWA balloting credited Sanderson with his first top-10 Norris Trophy finish - an award given out to the defenceman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability at the position.

It was a well-deserved honour for a player who established career highs in goals and points with 11 and 57, respectively.

"It was a big (season), for sure," Sanderson said while reflecting on his best season as a professional. "But at the same time, I only really started playing good hockey from February on.

"There were many months when I wasn't doing well. I wasn't the player I wanted to be. I'm really excited for this year to see what I can do to help the team win and see where I can go."

Sanderson is not wrong; there were marked splits.

Between October and January 31st, Sanderson produced three goals and 29 points in his first 50 games. The underlying metrics were respectable, however. When he was on the ice, the Senators generated 51.35 percent of the shots (CF%), 52.99 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 51.86 percent of the expected goals per Natural Stat Trick.

Unfortunately, the Senators scored only one-third of the total goals (GF%) when Sanderson was on the ice.

From February on, his numbers improved dramatically.

In his final 30 games, Sanderson recorded eight goals and 28 points, while the team's goal percentage improved to 53.19 percent.  

One explanation for the improved on-ice results is that injuries to his regular defensive partner, Artem Zub, forced the Senators to elevate Travis Hamonic up the lineup into a role he was ill-suited for.

In the 396 five-on-five minutes that the Sanderson-Hamonic pairing played together, the Senators only scored five goals. When this pairing was on the ice, the team shot an abysmal 2.62 percent. Of the 114 defensive pairings around the league that logged more than 300 minutes of ice time last season, no pairing produced a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Sanderson-Hamonic. In fact, the shooting percentage was so bad that if you doubled it to 5.24 percent, it still would not eclipse the second-lowest on-ice shooting percentage that belonged to Vegas' Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud (5.76).

For an elite skater and puck-moving defenceman who has substantial positive on-ice impacts, it is unfathomable that the Senators produced as few five-on-five goals as they did with Sanderson on the ice.

Any positive normalization in the Senators' shooting percentage should allow Sanderson to boost his five-on-five points totals significantly.

Sanderson is familiar with the team's poor on-ice shooting percentage statistic.

"I heard about that number before, but it can be bad luck too," Sanderson stated. "At the same time, you don't want to dig too deep, because I feel like sometimes you just break down the numbers, it's not going to make a difference.

"Honestly, I don't really care about how many points I put up. I don't feel any different at the end of the day. I'm not really too worried about that stuff. I want to go play and do my job on the ice as well as I can."

Hamonic ranked among the league’s worst statistical defencemen last season, making it all the more impressive that Sanderson managed to pull his numbers toward respectability.

The Senators generated 47.39 percent of the shots (CF%), 48.72 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 23.81 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.84 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). The numbers still weren't flattering, especially when contrasted with Sanderson's play with Zub -- 51.37 CF%, 52.57 SF%, 47.37 GF%, and 55.23 xGF% -- but they were somehow good enough to help Hamonic land a one-year, $1.0 million one-way deal with the Detroit Red Wings. In hindsight, that might be the most complimentary thing that you can say about Sanderson's impacts.

It is easy to look back at those 400 minutes that Sanderson spent alongside Hamonic and wonder how good he can be if he has a consistent and talented defensive partner. In a way, the situation is reminiscent of how Thomas Chabot thrived in 2024-25 after corrective wrist surgery and the arrival of Nick Jensen.

The importance of a consistent playing partner is not lost on Sanderson.

"For sure, it is the same as forward lines," he affirmed. "When you build chemistry with a partner, you know where they're going to be, you know what type of plays they're going to make. It makes a big difference.  

"(Artem) Zub, we've played together in the past, and I think we're continuing to build (our chemistry). More guys are coming up (the pipeline) that are very dynamic and are fighting for spots to play. I'm excited to build chemistry and see how we're going to do this season."

While the five-on-five production left something to be desired, the Senators' power play took a marked step forward last season.

The Senators finished with the league's 11th-ranked unit (23.8 percent), where Sanderson was a fixture on the first unit, establishing career highs in power-play goals (5) and points (20).

"Our power play definitely built a lot of chemistry," Sanderson said while reflecting on the unit's success last season. "There were stretches where we were snapping it around and winning games for our team.

"But, you can't live on the power play all season. It's not going to be consistent all the time. So, I need to find ways to be more impactful at five-on-five. My goal is to be an impact player, not just on the power play but at five-on-five. When the best defenseman are on the ice, you notice it right away."

As much as some of the aforementioned circumstances and bad luck impacted Sanderson last season, he took ownership of his play in the early going.

"Last year I got in my way a little bit (thinking about) the 4 Nations Face-Off," he conceded. "Not that I was thinking about it too much, but I was trying to be a certain player that I didn't really need to be at the end of the day.

"I just need to be the best at my job on the ice by breaking out pucks, playing hard, and being smart. That's all I really need to focus on. I need to focus on the day at hand and not really look too far forward. That is something that Travis Green has taught me a lot - try not to think about the big picture, but focus on the small efforts before it."

With three goals and 11 points in his first 13 games, Sanderson appears poised to shatter his regular-season highs while trailing only Cale Makar in defensive scoring.

"I feel like I'm a few steps from (Makar and Quinn Hughes)," Sanderson stated while downplaying his own offensive skill. "I'm still chasing them, and I don't know if I'll ever be as dynamic as them offensively. They're gifted and talented.

"I have to focus on my job and not concentrate on trying to put up the most points. If I focus on the little things that help our team win in the bigger picture, that is what is important to me."

If Sanderson can maintain that focus and sustain his current offensive levels, while providing noteworthy on-ice impacts (56.91 CF%, 54.55 SF%, 53.85 GF%, and 54.46 xGF%), he will inevitably merit serious Norris Trophy consideration. 

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