Last year to start the season, Jordan Spence was a healthy scratch. Now with the early injury to Artem Zub and the summer exit of Nick Jensen, he’ll likely start the season as the Senators number one right-shot defenseman.
Prognosticators and pundits have not been particularly kind to the Ottawa Senators ahead of the 2026-27 season.
In fairness, it is easy to look at a team that finished as the Eastern Conference’s second wild card seed and traded captain Brady Tkachuk during the summer and declare that the Senators will be in a dogfight to reach the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
Like any team, there are question marks.
Will their wingers score enough goals? Can William Eklund find another gear offensively? Will the Senators get the Andre Burakovsky from the first half of the 2025-26 season, or are his second-half struggles more reflective of the player he is now? How big of a loss is Brady Tkachuk’s net-front presence, especially on a power play that finished eighth in the league last season? Are the Senators’ forwards, especially in the top six, able to match up against larger and more physically imposing teams? After two seasons of slow starts, can Linus Ullmark and Sam Ersson provide competent goaltending from the season’s onset and help the team avoid a massive points deficit?
How well the Senators answer these questions will determine their fate, but it is hard to look at a team that endured as much adversity and porous goaltending as they did and dismiss their chances.
Structure and a commitment to a 200’ game are the Senators’ strengths, but there are specific areas for growth.
One obvious area is that the Senators have essentially replaced Nick Jensen’s role and minutes with Jordan Spence. Last year, the veteran defenceman entered camp recovering from major hip surgery. Although Jensen beat the timeline and returned faster than anyone anticipated, it was clear from the outset that he was trying to adjust to and navigate the limitations of his repaired body.
Through Jensen’s first 48 games while the team was playing at five-on-five, the Senators generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 49.00 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 42.68 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 49.67 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per Natural Stat Trick. The metrics were a far cry from his staunch start to the 2024-25 campaign, when he was last healthy. Any hope that Jensen could return to his mistake-free pre-injury form was dashed.
To his credit, Jensen’s play improved markedly in his last 13 games, but he suffered a torn meniscus during a game against the Canadiens in March and was shut down for the remainder of the season.
Injuries gave Spence the chance to take on a bigger role, and he thrived with the added responsibilities.
Not only did the 25-year-old establish career highs in goals (7) and points (31), but every pairing he played on excelled.
Of the Senators’ defensive pairings that logged over 100 minutes of five-on-five ice time together, the team's top three pairings ranked by expected goals for percentage (xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey featured Jordan Spence.
Chabot-Spence: 197.0 TOI, 63.70 xGF%
Sanderson-Spence: 143.3 TOI, 63.67 xGF%
Kleven-Spence: 656.6 TOI, 62.30 xGF%
Even in the postseason, when injuries decimated the Senators’ blue line, Spence maintained a positive impact on the ice while averaging 25:03 of ice time per game. When Spence was on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators generated 53.85 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.00 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 57.04 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). It was a far cry from the 2025 postseason when Spence played an insulated role on the Kings and averaged 7:31 of ice time.
Playing a larger role in Ottawa has certainly helped his confidence.
A couple of years ago, not being able to play a lot of shifts lowered my confidence a little bit,” Spence admitted. “It's all a mindset at the end of the day. When you're comfortable and confident on the ice, normally you play better.
“Just coming into camp this year and being able to understand what I have to do better in the postseason from last year and just improving on little things to be able to win games, obviously in the regular season, but the postseason as well helps a lot. The more you play, the more you get into a rhythm. That's how I felt last season.”
Spence acknowledged that he is not taking anything for granted and that although he is pencilled into a top-four role to start the season, he wants to keep working on his game and earning the trust of his coaching staff.
The benefit for Spence is that he can hit the ground running in 2026-27
“Last year coming into this, I still had to get to know the guys, the coaches, and (adjust),” Spence acknowledged. “Coming into camp this year, it felt like home. Seeing the guys again, being able to hang out and grind on the ice with the guys, it's been a lot of fun.
“We're really happy to be back, and I have said it a lot, but we're really looking forward to this season and to have an impactful year.”
A significant portion of that impact will come from understanding the system, being familiar with his defensive partners, and the confidence that comes from already having succeeded.
“(The difference) is buying in 100 percent,” Spence stated while describing what took him time to develop his game last season. “It's pretty simple with what (Travis Green) wants. It’s for you to work on and off the ice and be focused and consistent in every game.
“That's why we had so much success down the road last year. Everyone bought in and did their job. So, for me, understanding that last year and what I have to do (now) really helped throughout my season last year.
"And hopefully, I can do that consistently from the start of the season.”
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
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