There was never a question of what the Senators' Achilles heel was entering the 2024-25 season. The organization's defensive depth quality was widely recognized as a potential shortcoming.
Back-to-back losses to the Montreal Canadiens and Colorado Avalanche have helped shine a light on how reliant the Senators are on having a healthy top-four on their back end.
While it is only a tiny two-game sample, the metrics have been abysmal.
According to NaturalStatTrick's data, here is how the Senators' three pairings have performed at even strength:
It will be difficult to win when the Senators spend that much time in their end with those two top pairings on the ice.
Travis Hamonic often takes a lot of heat on social media, but it is not his fault he is being thrust into a role he is ill-suited for.
For this reason, Senators fans could rejoice at the sight of Nick Jensen's presence and participation in Friday morning's practice at the Bell Sensplex.
The defenceman has sat out the last three games with an undisclosed lower-body injury.
"(The injury) is a very day-to-day process right now," Jensen explained. "It's a little better than yesterday. So, that's pretty much where I'm leaving it right now."
The Senators are fortunate enough in the sense that because they built up a small points cushion on their Eastern Conference peers in the wild card race, they have some flexibility when deciding on Jensen's availability.
Rather than continue to play an injured asset, they can afford him enough time to rest and receive treatment now, hoping it will pay dividends when the team gets closer to realizing its postseason aspirations.
It is a balancing act.
"I don't want to put myself in a position that's going to set me up, or put me out longer than I expected," the defenceman stated. "I want to come back and be able to help this team and be a part of what we're trying to do here.
"At the same time, I want longevity in that, too. If we push into the playoffs, I want to be effective throughout that whole process rather than come back for two games and then be out again."
Nick Jensen's health needs to be prioritized because, as much as everyone understands that this team's short-term success will be undermined by playing Travis Hamonic in a top-four role, the Thomas Chabot and Jensen pairing has not been playing particularly well lately.
The pairing was statistically the team's best through the first three months of the season, so their performance in March has offered a stark contrast.
October 10, 2024 - December 31, 2024:
March 1, 2025 - March 21, 2025:
The Senators' percentage of total shots and goals has dropped, but it is the rate at which the Senators have allowed shots and goals that really distinguishes the drop in performance.
October 10, 2024 - December 31, 2024:
March 1, 2025 - March 21, 2025:
The rate of shots for (CF/60) per 60, and shots on goal per 60 (SF/60) that the Senators generate have dropped precipitously while the shots allowed (CA/60, SA/60) rates have skyrocketed. Although the rate of goals allowed has miraculously not been negatively impacted, the expected goals rate has jumped by almost an entire goal from the first half of the season - suggesting that the pairing has been quite lucky to escape their poorly underlying numbers.
Beyond the Chabot and Jensen pairing, the Senators, like any team, play more effectively when they can execute clean breakouts.
The Colorado Avalanche did an exceptional job of using its speed last night to pressure the Senators' defence, taking away precious time and space.
The Senators need to do a better job of puck retrieval and offering supporting options to their defensive corps, but Jensen was not too worried about what he saw.
"I don't think we have to look too far into it," he explained. "I mean, that was one game. I understand that was a good team we played, and maybe we didn't play our best hockey, but I think from games prior to that, I think we've been playing some good hockey.
"This league is tough for a reason. You can't just come in every day and just dominate every team you play. You are going to have some setbacks every once in a while, so we try to keep those to a minimum. But as far as breaking the puck out, I don't think we've been struggling with that in enough games where (we should be too concerned). They played a good game against us yesterday, making it tough for us to break out. But overall, the plan has been good, so we just have to make sure we get back to that. And, especially in these times when we're dropping two in a row, this is the time to have that urgency and get back to everything that has been making us successful."
Having a healthy and efficient Jensen will undoubtedly help in that regard.
Update: Head coach Travis Green indicated that he would check with the trainers after practice, but the hope is that he would travel and play with the Senators on Saturday in New Jersey.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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