It would appear that Mitch Marner’s time in Toronto could be nearing its end, and like a lot of breakups, it’s probably a mutual thing. General Manager Brad Treliving has openly talked about the team needing new DNA, and Marner has frequently seemed irritated with the intense media spotlight, high expectations, and another early playoff exit.
That tension was on full display during the second round, when TV cameras caught Marner barking, “Wake the f*** up!” at his teammates. He was literally spitting mad in a moment that seemed to sum up how his time with the Leafs has been unfolding.
With Marner’s unrestricted free agency looming, now less than three weeks away, the speculation is ramping up. And among the teams casually linked to him? The Senators. Podcaster Jeff Marek recently mentioned them as a possible dark horse in the Marner bidding, suggesting they might be looking to make a splash this summer.
For argument’s sake, let’s leave aside the not-so-small fact that Ottawa wouldn’t be Marner’s first choice, and probably not his second or third either. In all likelihood, he’d probably prefer an warm American market where fans and media care less. Can't blame him. The man has basically had five careers worth of media scrutiny.
But as we tackle things just from the Ottawa perspective, the idea isn’t completely without merit.
Marner is still a young man in his prime at 28, four months younger than Thomas Chabot, and has consistently produced at a high level. So age-wise, he’d fit right in with Ottawa’s young, talented roster. Dave Poulin is probably a big fan, being part of the group that drafted Marner. And make no mistake, they will need to find another top-end offensive weapon if they’re to evolve into true contenders. So the fit, in terms of age and skill, checks some boxes.
But there are some bigger factors to consider.
For starters, the Sens are in the midst of stabilizing things after years of drama and mismanagement under Eugene Melnyk. They’ve now got an owner committed to being 'best in class,' with a smart front office, a young core, and a clearer identity.
It’s worth asking whether Marner really fits with what Ottawa is building.
Then there’s the financial side. Marner’s next deal (assuming he leaves Toronto) will definitely be the max seven years and likely north of $13 million per season. That’s obviously a significant investment in one player, not just in cap space or who you'd need to move to make it work, but in team dynamics. That would be at least $5 million more than any current Senator, which could shift the tone and balance in the room. And this is a group that has emphasized balance.
Right now the Senators balancing act includes a need for more hard skill up front, not the soft skill that Marner brings. Bringing in Marner at this point would be like bringing in another offensive defenceman last summer instead of the shut down man they actually needed in Nick Jensen.
While Marner’s regular season production is elite, his playoff results haven’t quite matched. The Leafs have made it past the first round just twice during his time there, despite having some of the league’s top-paid players around him. Fair or not, that history follows him. And it's fair to ask if those big offensive numbers will continue in a new situation, without one of the game’s greatest scorers so often at his side.
None of this is to say Marner isn’t a top-tier player. But for a team like Ottawa, it's just not a fit, not for either side.
Steve Warne
The Hockey News
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