All the signs are there for a big spike in production if Ridly Grieg is needed higher in the lineup.
Thanks to the ice installation at the Canadian Tire Centre, the hype fuelled by the Ottawa Senators' new centre ice logo was fitting, considering the centre position is where some of the team's most pivotal storylines will lie this season.
Whether Tim Stützle can return to his 2022-23 form and how a normalized offseason can benefit Shane Pinto and allow him to improve upon his 2023-24 campaign will be paramount to Ottawa's success in 2024-25, sure.
But the story to watch will be Josh Norris' recovery from shoulder surgery. After undergoing a third surgical procedure on his left shoulder, all eyes will be on his recovery and its implications for the rest of the roster.
If Norris is unable to go, the organization has insurance policies in place to cover his absence. There is the aforementioned Pinto, but sophomore Ridly Greig will be looking to build off an impressive rookie season. The forward recorded 13 goals and 26 points in 72 games while garnering attention for his chippiness, two-way play and league-leading empty net clapper rate.
Greig was the Senators' Swiss Army knife last season. Evolving-Hockey's data shows he logged 1,061 minutes across all situations, but Greig never had regular linemates at five-on-five. He was used everywhere, part of nine line combinations that logged between 30 and 79 minutes together. His versatility in playing up and down the lineup at centre and the wing made him invaluable to the Senators.
Evolving-Hockey's wins above replacement (WAR) model rated him as the Senators' third-most valuable forward behind Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk.
That lack of continuity may have hurt Greig's production.
Greig finished 15th in rookie scoring despite only contributing six points in his last 33 games. Another encouraging sign is that his most common linemates last season were Dominik Kubalik and Mathieu Joseph. The trio played to poor results, with the Senators only generating 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) while they were on the ice together. Despite those poor results and his slow finish, Greig still managed to be the fifth-most valuable rookie by WAR last season.
Provided Greig can play with more consistent and talented linemates, the likelihood of surpassing last season's totals is very real. HockeyViz.com's data also portrays him as a player whose isolated offensive and defensive impacts helped the team. Following the departures of Parker Kelly, Mathieu Joseph and Mark Kastelic, it is reasonable to assume that Greig will be one of the players called upon to take on a more prominent defensive role.
In the event that Norris is healthy and can play, the presence of Greig affords the Senators options. They could slide the former to the wing if they believe sheltering him from taking faceoffs would protect his shoulder. Norris' primary assist rate was barely above Travis Hamonic's last season, so he could benefit from playing the wing, where he could play to his strength: goal-scoring.
Norris is much better in the faceoff dot, however. Like many other young players, Greig struggled with his faceoff performance. He only won 43.9 percent of his draws.
Another thing to keep an eye on during training camp and the exhibition season will be David Perron's usage and quality of linemates. The organization may prefer to give the veteran the first opportunity to play higher up the lineup, but at 36 years old, the possibility of an age-related decline is real.
His play and early returns should dictate whether Greig gets an opportunity to play in that top six. In the limited minutes he played with skilled players last season, Greig thrived. In the 68.5 minutes he played with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux, the Senators generated 69 percent of the shots (CF%) and 72 percent of the expected goals.
It's an obviously small sample size that would have experienced some regression, but to his credit, when Ridly Greig received the opportunity, he played well.
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