For a team that's in last place and famous for its slow starts, it's never too early to look at the standings.
After 14 games, just under 20% of the season is completed, and the Ottawa Senators sit with a record of 7-7-0. While it's not the great start many were hoping for, they have played passable hockey to remain .500% while getting plenty of scoring support. With expectations of playoffs still weighing heavy on the players and coaching staff, let's explore how realistic the postseason may be at this point.
Playoff Pace
While currently only on pace for 82 points, well below the playoff threshold, things are not as bleak as they may seem. When looking at the season in five-game segments, going 3-2 or picking up at least six points will result in a team finishing with high 90s or better points. This, most years, will result in a playoff spot. So, the goal for 15 games should be 9-6. If the Sens can win their second game in Sweden against Minnesota, they will draw to only one game behind that pace. Rip off two or three wins in a row, and they will be right back on track.
Positives
One of the biggest positives year over year for the Senators is how much they have been scoring 5-on-5. So far, they have 38 5-on-5 goals, which ranks 6th in the NHL, whereas last season, they finished 24th and heavily relied on the powerplay. This has also resulted in Tim Stutzle and Mathieu Joseph both having 13 points at even strength, currently among the top ten in 5-on-5 point production.
Another bright spot for this team is their goal differential (GD). Currently sitting last in the Atlantic Division in points, Ottawa has a GD of +7 which ranks second in the division and 9th in the league. While not a clear-cut indicator of a playoff team, a positive GD can often lead to the postseason. This has been an area Ottawa has struggled with previously, finishing with a GD of -11 in 2022/23, ranking 21st in the league.
Negatives
The offensive game may be thriving for the Senators, but the defensive end is still a mess. With a 5-on-5 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) of 45.33, Ottawa currently ranks 29th in the league (via MoneyPuck). Then when looking at the cumulative difference in xG throughout the season, we can see that Ottawa is consistently giving up more quality chances than their opponents. These are just numbers backing up what the eye test also clearly displays on most nights.
With 35 5-on-5 goals against, the Sens rank 24th in the league while having games in hand on others around them, and is showing there are still too many goals against going in the back of the net (via MoneyPuck). Also concerning is the amount of penalties the team is taking, along with the performance of the penalty kill. Having amassed 11.6 PIMs per game already, they rank 26th while boasting a 76.6% penalty kill, good for 21st in the league (via TheScore).
Overall, it may feel like the Sens have gotten off to a bad start like years past, but the reality is they are close to where they need to be in the standings while fighting plenty of on-and-off-ice adversity. The offensive side of the game has been really promising, with plenty of depth chipping in, while the defensive side still needs plenty of work.
The Senators' ability to be the playoff team everyone expects hinges on maintaining consistency in goal-scoring while finding a new level of dedication and commitment in their defensive zone.