Tkachuk's absence requires solutions. Can the Senators replace their leader through the aggregate, Moneyball-style?
As a result of an awkward check into the boards against the Nashville Predators on Monday afternoon, the Ottawa Senators are about to begin a long stretch without their captain and leader, Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk was in New York City on Wednesday getting a second opinion on whether surgery is required on his right hand or wrist.
The whole situation is like the scene from Moneyball when Brad Pitt (playing Billy Beane) is with his Oakland A’s scouting staff, discussing how to build the roster after losing key players to free agency — most notably, Jason Giambi.
The scouts all tried to identify players with potential, and Beane asked very simple questions:
Is there another first baseman out there like Giambi?
Answer: No.
Even if there was, could we afford him?
Answer: No.
Pitt’s response at that point isn’t fit for print, but you could switch the names and the sport, and it would come out the same in Ottawa.
The Senators can’t replace Brady Tkachuk. There's no one like him in the NHL, much less a free agent version, still unsigned a week after the season has started. Even if there was, the Sens couldn’t afford him in the long run.
Just as Pitt suggested to his Oakland A’s scouting department, the Senators need to re-create Tkachuk. They need to re-create him in the aggregate.
The Senators faced a more serious dilemma in 2013 when Erik Karlsson’s Achilles tendon was partially severed by Matt Cooke’s skate. Many fans thought that was it for the season. Then the Senators re-created Karlsson in the aggregate, with Sergei Gonchar leading the way, and they even won a round of the playoffs after Karlsson’s miraculous recovery.
Without trivializing Tkachuk’s absence, if the Ottawa Senators are a team that is poised to take another step this season, then they should be able to weather this storm. If they can’t, they likely weren’t ready to move forward anyway.
Tkachuk occupied the power forward position in the Seven Player Profile. No one will replace his physicality, whether it's hits, fights or owning the front of the other team’s net.
The Florida Panthers miss Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, yet they're in first place in the Atlantic Division. They are finding a way.
So, what has to happen?
- Though no one on the current roster was on the 2013 squad, they need to borrow a page from the Pesky Sens handbook. Every player needs to be willing to finish an extra check or eat a punch for the cause.
- Leaders need to be leaders. Claude Giroux, David Perron, Lars Eller, and Linus Ullmark, along with head coach Travis Green, will have to rally the group and create belief.
- Ullmark needs to become his Vezina Trophy-winning self again. Fully healthy teams need elite goaltending to win. Ullmark needs to get there to bridge this gap.
- No pity parties in the room. Everyone needs to view this as an opportunity to galvanize.
- Mark January 26th in Nashville on their calendars.
It’s time to see what this year’s version of the Ottawa Senators is made of.
More Sens headlines at the Hockey News Ottawa:
Senators Lose Sebrango, Claimed Off Waivers By Florida
An Early Glance At The Senators' Goaltending Pipeline
Brady Tkachuk Likely To Miss A Month Of Action (At Least)
Another Tough Break For Josh Norris, A Player Ottawa Still Roots For
Yakemchuk Reflects On Playing First Pro Game Saturday