It's a Battle of Ontario title that neither side really wants to lay claim to.
NHL hockey is experiencing a heck of a dark age in the province of Ontario. Whether you’re an Ottawa Senators fan, who just finished watching a seventh straight year out of the playoffs, or a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, whose team just bowed out in the first round for the eighth time in their last nine tries, the battle for bragging rights between these two franchises has been a depressing comedy of errors.
Let’s see which team’s fans can truly claim the title of Ontario’s most miserable fanbase.
Recent success:
The Leafs have made the playoffs every season since 2017. Ottawa hasn’t made the dance since that same year. By any conceivable metric, the Leafs are the winner here. One cursory glance at Leafs' Twitter will also show you that the media and fan base will happily use “better than the Senators” as a bragging point, even though 80 percent of the league could claim the same. The Leafs get bonus points for coming back to make a series of it against Boston as well.
Who has it worse? Sens fans, by a mile.
The head-to-head battle:
You wouldn’t expect it, but the Senators franchise is the clear winner here. Ottawa boasted a 3-1 record against the Leafs this season, and the Belleville Senators just won their first ever playoff matchup in franchise history against the Marlies. The Senators not only won these battles on the scoreboard, but also broke Leaf players’ brains in the process. Twice this season.
No one can forget how Morgan Rielly cross checked Ridly Grieg in the head after scoring an empty net goal with a slapshot earlier this season or how two months later, the Marlies’ Kyle Clifford attacked Belleville’s Boko Imama during the handshake line after their AHL series. Bonus points to the Senators for beating the Bruins in their only playoff meeting in 2017, something the Leafs haven’t accomplished since 1959.
Who has it worse? Leaf fans.
Ownership:
Would you rather your team be owned by a distant corporate monolith with unlimited resources but little in the way of hands-on passion? Or would you rather an owner with a more individualistic role who put up a ton of their own money to buy the team?
Michael Andlauer certainly has deeper pockets and previous successes than the outgoing ownership in Ottawa, and spends more time communicating with fans and media than any MLSE executive. Andlauer also has the double-edged motivation of having revenue tied into team success, compared to the Leafs who can charge a month’s rent for a ticket regardless of whether they’re in first or last place and still be guaranteed a sellout.
Leafs ownership has shown too much willingness to take a backseat and run it back over and over again. Andlauer gets extra points here for navigating ridiculous situations like losing a first round pick for the botched Evgeni Dadonov trade and the Shane Pinto gambling suspension with class, both situations out of his control that were set in motion before he arrived.
Who has it worse? Leaf fans.
Roster decisions and former player success:
Sens fans have watched two beloved former players captain their teams to cups in Zdeno Chara in 2011 and Mark Stone in 2023. Useful players like Mika Zibanejad, Alex Debrincat, Matt Duchene, Vladimir Tarasenko, Dylan DeMelo, Nick Paul, and two top 15 picks have gone out the door in trade for meagre returns in recent years. Ottawa did at least acquire two 30+ goal scoring centres in Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle in exchange for franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson.
The Leafs have seen Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel become Cup champions after leaving, and Zach Hyman became a 50 goal scorer for Edmonton this year. Countless useful depth players like Ryan O’Reilly were sacrificed for cap space. All these players brought back little to nothing in return.
Both teams have been cursed by a goaltending carousel for years that included overpaying Matt Murray to sit on LTIR when he wasn’t actively terrible in the crease. Ottawa has seen Cam Talbot, Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, Ben Bishop, Robin Lehner, Chris Driedger, and even franchise goalie Craig Anderson find various levels of success after leaving. The Leafs have fared a little better, but still watched Tuukka Rask and Freddie Andersen become reliable goalies elsewhere. Leafs get bonus points for pulling the parachute on Jack Campbell when they did.
Who has it worse? Senator fans.
Hope for the future:
Ottawa just hired a coach in Travis Green with 141 wins in 335 games coached, so already the Sens are behind the 8-ball here. Even if Green has improved as a coach, his 8-12-1 record in New Jersey to close out the season doesn’t inspire confidence at first glance.
While management could very well know something the rest of us don’t, a major priority for Ottawa should have been to generate excitement this off season for players and fans alike, and this hire does not accomplish that. Sheldon Keefe in Toronto might not be behind the bench much longer either, so the Leafs win the hope check behind the bench by default here either way.
Beyond coaching, the "hope for the future" debate starts to get more interesting. Both teams have most of their top talent locked in for big paydays. The Leafs have a generational talent in Auston Matthews who put up 69 goals this season and will be the highest paid player in the league next season. William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares have proven capable of 100 point seasons, but have handcuffed management with iron clad no-movement clauses and $11 million+ salaries. Morgan Rielly is a fine top pair defenceman at $7.5 million.
Ottawa has some really nice pieces of their own, but the pieces haven’t fit together into a cohesive unit. Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Josh Norris are all signed for several seasons. While Toronto way overpaid on regular season success, Ottawa overpaid on potential. The Senators do have a little more flexibility since their stars are mostly signed in $8 million range, versus half the cap space tied into five players in Toronto.
We say this every year, but the Leafs can’t possibly run it back with this crew again, can they? Ottawa has a little more runway with a younger roster, smaller top end contracts, a 7th overall pick, and Boston’s first rounder in the upcoming draft, but a much larger gap to close. Either team could be on the cusp of resuming a bleak era, or a fascinating turnaround.
Who has it worse? Senator fans, but not by as much as you might think.
Results vs Expectations:
Here’s a trivia question: How many teams in the NHL have won more second round playoff games in the salary cap era than the Leafs? The answer is, bafflingly, all 31 teams. Even historically bad teams such as Buffalo, Arizona/Utah, Columbus and recent expansion Seattle have won more games in the second round than the Leafs have in the past 20 years.
With all their advantages, resources, talent, and record-setting regular seasons and individual success, they’ve only won one game past the first round since the 2004-05 lockout. The Leafs are the rock-bottom worst playoff team of the salary cap era, but at least they make it to the dance.
Ottawa on the other hand, has had more meagre expectations that they haven’t been able to live up to either. Their most successful season since the magical 2017 run has been missing the playoffs by six points in 2022-23. So is it worse to be a contender with top talent who embarrass themselves every single year in the playoffs, or is it worse to root for a team who can’t climb out of the abyss? Is it worse to feel hopeless in November, or frustrated and let down in April?
I suppose a Leaf fan who watched Toronto miss the playoffs nine out of ten years between 2006 and 2016 (with a historic 2013 collapse of a 4-1 lead in the third period of game 7 squeezed in), could compare that to the frustration they feel now and tell you which feels worse. So could an Ottawa fan who watched the talented Sens lose 4 out of 4 against the Leafs from 2000-2004 versus this current seven year itch of futility.
Who has it worse? The answer is in the eye of the beholder.
So, overall, who has it worse? The Senators lost 3 categories, to the Leafs’ 2, with one being a tie. With that said, My cop out answer is all hockey fans in Ontario. Not a single home team hockey fan in Ontario (and since misery loves company, let's include Montreal fans in here too) is happy with the current state and recent performance of their team.
Fans not only want success from their own team, but need their main rival to provide formidable resistance to overcome. That has not been the case for these teams at the same time in over 20 years. The loser is both of these franchises, and sadly, the Battle of Ontario has been a laughable slap fight ever since.