When Steve Staios assumed the general manager role on November 1, 2023, he inherited a mess.
Despite the Senators not appearing in a postseason game for almost eight years, the organization's rebuilding efforts left something to be desired. The presence of essential young core pieces like Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson were invaluable assets that any organization would be thrilled to have. However, its flawed roster was flirting with the salary cap ceiling, and the farm system thinned out faster than Auston Matthew's hairline.
The opportunity to support the group as it currently exists under the thresholds of the current cap structure is challenging.
Most Senators fans are cognizant of the fact Staios' predecessor, Pierre Dorion, left the cupboards bare through some poor drafts and by moving significant opportunity costs for poor fits who offered the organization little in the way of controllable term.
The depleted farm system is something one would see from a Cup contender near the end of their window of contention after years of making trade deadline deals or drafting at the back half of the first round. It is not typical of an organization that has missed the playoffs for seven consecutive years.
There should be more draft capital and prospects within the system to move to insulate this group. Without them, it could give management pause to ship more valuable draft capital out the door if the market becomes too expensive.
Even if Staios can find a deal he likes, an obstacle the organization will need to overcome is the cap space. Heading into today's deadline, the Senators only have $850,000 in cap space per PuckPedia.
Chris Johnston alluded to this predicament during Wedneday's edition of 'The Insiders' on TSN.
"There's still time (for the Sens to make a move)," explained Johnston, referring to what he had been hearing in the rumour mill. "If there's going to be a surprise, it would be if anything big happened in either Ottawa or Calgary.
"(With) the Sens, some of the younger names have been out there, like Josh Norris, a bit during this year. I don't get the feeling that anything like that is brewing. They'd like to add some depth to their roster, but because of cap constraints, I don't expect them to be too active.
It would be easy for Staios and his group to take a conservative approach and roll with the status quo. On the other hand, Staios was a player in this league, and he recognizes what it can mean for the players to have their efforts rewarded and bolster a roster.
If the Senators want to get creative and pivot to create cap space, the most obvious avenues for Staios to explore to create that space would be to waive or trade Jacob Bernard-Docker and find a place for Anton Forsberg's cap hit.
The veteran backup carries a $2.75 million cap hit and is an impending unrestricted free agent. Leevi Merilainen's emergence as a viable and credible alternative may afford Staios the courage to roll the dice on a Linus Ullmark and Merilainen tandem.
If the Anaheim Ducks are willing to absorb Ville Husso's entire $3.6 million cap hit for future considerations, there may be a similar path for the Senators to follow. Replacing Forsberg's cap hit with Merilainen's would save the organization $1.93 million. Dumping Bernard-Docker's salary would save the team an additional $805,000. With the $850,000 the Senators already have in cap space, Staios can create $3.585 million in cap room to upgrade the parent roster.
Making those decisions would obviously come with risk, but for me personally, the opportunity to address other holes on the roster outweighs preserving some quality of depth (and if you're worried about the quality of depth in losing a JBD, he's playing behind Travis Hamonic).
When the organization vies for a wild card seed, the Senators will be underdogs in any potential playoff matchup. As such, I'd be less inclined to worry about the implications of an injury to Ullmark or any quality player on the front or back end.
The opportunity to create flexibility and address areas of need should be there for Staios. And, as easy as it is to blame his predecessor's ineptitude for complicating the situation Staios finds himself in now, there are paths he can navigate to help his team now.
He just needs the boldness to do it.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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