The Senators are crossing their fingers that two young North Dakota products can hold down the fort.
Identifying the Senators' most glaring weakness nowadays is as complex as recognizing that Brian Lee was the wrong draft selection in 2005.
Even John Muckler could point out that the Senators are rolling the dice by relying on a pair of University North Dakota products to buoy their defence.
Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker have combined to play 1,852 minutes and four seconds of ice time for the Senators. To put that figure into perspective, it is slightly more than the minutes Fredrik Claesson logged in his career with the franchise.
To their credit, Bernard-Docker and Kleven have some prospect pedigree. The former was the Senators' first-round pick (26th overall) in 2018, while the latter was a second-round pick (44th overall).
Although both players spent three seasons playing at the collegiate level at the University of North Dakota hockey program, there was only one year of overlap in their respective careers - the 2020-21 campaign when Kleven was a freshman, and Bernard-Docker was serving as an alternate captain in his junior year. Despite the two playing offsetting natural positions, the two never played regularly as defensive partners.
Barring a trade or a veteran signing, they will be asked to serve as the Senators' third pairing in 2024-25.
According to NaturalStatTrick's defensive pairing tracking tool, Kleven and Bernard-Docker have logged 56 minutes and 10 seconds of five-on-five ice time while playing together across 15 games. It is far too small of a sample size to get overly excited about the results, but they have been good.
While on the ice, the Senators generated 63.81 percent of the total shots (CF%), 72.73 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 73.80 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
The decision not to tender Erik Brannstrom a qualifying offer emphasized a shift in philosophy when committing to the blue line's depth. Despite some decent underlying metrics that portrayed him as a capable defender, the organization moved on from the diminutive defenceman to give his spot to a larger and more physical Kleven.
Last season represented Kleven's first full professional season, so there is some risk in giving a relatively inexperienced player this opportunity. To his credit, however, he is coming off an impressive rookie season with Belleville. In 53 games with the B-Sens, he tallied five goals, 21 points and a +14 plus/minus rating.
The Senators' 2023-24 campaign represented Bernard-Docker's first season as an NHL regular. In 72 games, the right defenceman compiled four goals and 10 assists while averaging 15:42 per game of ice time. Most of Bernard-Docker's minutes were spent playing alongside Jakob Chychrun, and the Senators' results while this pairing was out there were underwhelming.
When the Chychrun/Bernard-Docker pairing was on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators only generated 45.26 percent of the total shots (CF%), 44.43 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 41.30 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), and 37.01 percent of the actual goals (GF%). The pairing was painfully ineffective and likely made the organization's decision to move on from Chychrun easier. Bernard-Docker's underlying numbers improved while playing with Brannstrom and Sanderson, but he also struggled while playing Chabot.
As the archetypal defensive defenceman, he will be pressured to prove he can be a competent depth defenceman for the organization. At least fans will be hoping he is capable because the quality of depth behind Bernard-Docker is not there.
In a perfect world, the Senators could use their remaining cap space to add a veteran player who stands a chance of adding value to their lineup. The thought of the Senators being an injury in their top-four away from playing Bernard-Docker and Travis Hamonic regular minutes is frightening.
The Hamonic experience has left something to be desired. General manager Steve Staios emphasized how offseason knee surgery should benefit Hamonic, but Hamonic's struggles go beyond just the 2023-24 campaign. All of the qualitative and quantitative evidence points to him being an ineffective veteran for a few years now, so it feels naive to believe he will suddenly turn the corner at 33 years old.
Few organizations can endure any significant injuries to their blue line, but in Ottawa's case, it rings especially true. If the third pairing struggles or they are forced to play ineffective players higher up their lineup, it will leave many fans bemoaning the point about the team failing to address its quality of depth during the offseason.