The analytics indicate that Travis Green made the right decision to bench Travis Hamonic for Jacob Bernard-Docker, but it came up snake-eyes against Vegas.
Mired in a three-game winless streak heading into last night's against the Vegas Golden Knights, the Senators made a change that many fans have been clamouring for.
After yesterday's off-ice workout, Travis Green announced that defenceman Travis Hamonic would come out of the lineup and be replaced by Jacob Bernard-Docker. The young right-defenceman had been a healthy scratch for the past six games following Artem Zub's return from a concussion.
The move was celebrated because during the nine games Bernard-Docker played on the third pairing with Tyler Kleven, good things happened when the two University of North Dakota products were on the ice together. The Senators recorded impressive underlying shot and goal metrics while the third pair was on the ice, which, in turn, took a lot of pressure off the top four during Zub's absence.
Before last night's slate of games, of all the defensive pairings in the NHL that have logged over 100 minutes together heading into last night's games, the Kleven/Bernard-Docker pairing had the league's fourth-lowest rate of expected goals allowed at five-on-five.
When they were on the ice, NaturalStatTrick's data shows the Senators generated 54.04 percent of the shots (CF%), 60.24 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 62.50 percent of the goals (GF%), and 58.99 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Conversely, Travis Hamonic struggled mightily in his ascent to the top four. Travis Green has repeatedly asserted that the top pairings have had tougher assignments (quality of competition, zone starts) relative to the third pair. That context is necessary and important, but it is hard to argue with the results.
The Kleven and Bernard-Docker pairing certainly deserved credit for their play, but Bernard-Docker was the odd man out once Zub returned. In Bernard-Docker's relegation to the press box, the third pairing of Kleven/Hamonic has underperformed. The Senators generated 48.54 percent of the shots (CF%), 43.14 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 25.00 percent of the goals (GF%), and 48.71 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) in these six games.
So, naturally with Hamonic out of the lineup, what did the Kleven and Bernard-Docker pairing do?
Naturally, they laid an egg.
The duo played 8 minutes and 22 seconds together at five-on-five and were on the ice for two of Vegas' three goals last night. Bernard-Docker, in particular, looked rough on the first goal as he found himself on his off-side of the ice chasing the puck carrier. That bled into him and Adam Gaudette double-covering Jack Eichel, who fed a wide-open Ivan Barbashev where Bernard-Docker would normally be. In fairness, no one picked up that coverage as Bernard-Docker rotated into the left side of the ice.
Fortunately, Linus Ullmark made a huge save before Barbashev recovered the rebound. Had Bernard-Docker simply stuck with his coverage on Eichel, that may have prevented Eichel from receiving a return pass from Barbashev. Instead, Bernard-Docker elected to help Kleven box out Alexander Holtz, who was essentially out of the play. The decision left Eichel wide open for an easy tap-in.
The duo were also on the ice for Pavel Dorofeyev's third period marker. The overaggressiveness of the Senators' forecheckers and an ill-timed pinch by Kleven allowed the Golden Knights to break the puck out of their end. When the puck sprung out to William Karlsson at the Ottawa blue line, he took off with it. When Karlsson captured the puck, both Senators defencemen were closer to the puck than Dorofeyev. And, Brady Tkachuk was about the same distance away.
NHL Edge data rates Dorofeyev in the 63rd percentile for top skating speed and below the 50th percentile in speed bursts over 20 mph. On this developing rush, however, he outhustled and outworked Kleven and Tkachuk to beat them back into the Ottawa zone. Bernard-Docker could have stayed in the middle of the ice to take away the pass and force Karlsson to shoot or make a more challenging play. Without any significant back pressure on Dorofeyev, Karlsson fed Dorofeyev, and he restored Vegas' two-goal advantage just two minutes after Ottawa scored a goal of its own.
We are at the quarter mark of the schedule, and everything that could go wrong is getting compounded by inexplicable actions and events. Poor goaltending, lousy luck, untimely penalties and poor special teams compound their mental and physical mistakes. It is frustrating and hard to watch, but how it has all continued to snowball is incredible.
In light of all the qualitative and quantitative evidence, Travis Green and his coaching staff made the right decision to bench Hamonic. For one very important game, it did not work out.
It has been that kind of season, thus far. Maybe we should have seen it coming.