With Artem Zub's return imminent, who comes out? Travis Hamonic or Jacob Bernard-Docker?
After missing the past eight games after sustaining a concussion from a Tanner Jeannot hit in the early moments of the Senators' October 14th game against the Los Angeles Kings, Artem Zub returned to practice with his teammates on Monday morning at the Canadian Tire Centre.
Although Zub participated in drills with his regular playing partner, Jake Sanderson, and travelled to Buffalo for their tilt with the Sabres, he'll be a spectator again on Tuesday night, just not quite ready for a return to action.
Zub's absence has put the team in an uncomfortable situation. Its defensive depth was put to the test.
Travis Hamonic was elevated from the third pairing to one with Jake Sanderson. Jacob Bernard-Docker transitioned from the press box into the lineup alongside fellow University of North Dakota grad Tyler Kleven.
That development was intriguing because Bernard-Docker had not had an opportunity to get into the Senators' lineup. That seemed odd since he had seemingly leapfrogged Hamonic on the depth chart during the 2023-24 season. As a rookie, he wound up playing 72 games. Although the surface and underlying numbers were not particularly strong, they weren't bad either. If anything, they were bland. Bernard-Docker played like an average replacement-level player, but he certainly outperformed Hamonic.
Given the struggles of the veteran defenceman's 2023-24 season on the defensive end, and how inefficient he was with his puck touches when he was not teeing up clappers from the right point, it would have been easy to assume that Bernard-Docker would find a way into the lineup before an injury occurred.
That never happened.
Early in camp and throughout the preseason, Travis Green and Hamonic's teammates sang the praises of the veteran - pointing to his recovery from offseason knee surgery as a reason for his inspired efforts and play during camp. Hamonic may have also benefited from the fact that he had a pre-existing relationship with his head coach. Still, any apprehension to play two young defencemen together to start the season could have afforded more leeway to roll with the veteran choice to start the season.
Zub's injury created the opportunity Bernard-Docker needed.
The Kleven/Bernard-Docker pairing has not looked back in the eight games since.
In their 100 minutes and 11 seconds of five-on-five ice time together, the Senators have generated 55.43 percent of the shots (CF%), 61.97 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 71.43 percent of the actual goals (GF%), and 58.78 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Conversely, the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing played 114 minutes and 29 seconds, again at five-on-five. When they were on the ice together during this same stretch, the Senators only generated 44.79 percent of the shots (CF%), 45.67 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 16.67 percent of the goals (GF%), and 38.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
There is no question that Bernard-Docker and Kleven are getting sheltered minutes while Sanderson and Hamonic face tougher competition. The third pairing has also benefited from favourable zone starts, where Green rarely has them begin shifts in the defensive end.
According to NaturalStatTrick's data, the Kleven/Bernard-Docker pairing has had seven defensive zone starts in the last eight games. During this stretch of games, the Chabot/Jensen and Sanderson/Hamonic pairings have had 23 and 26, respectively. To help further put this into perspective, 65 percent of the third pairing's zone starts begin in the offensive zone.
The duo have one of the lowest expected goals allowed rates in the entire league, per Iyer Prasanth. (Note: min. 100 minutes)
What has impressed me is how rangy Kleven has been in disrupting plays with his stick and then how well he has headmanned the puck. Throughout his days as a prospect, he was regarded as a defenceman with a booming shot who overprioritized physicality at the expense of, well, everything. As an NHLer, he has demonstrated maturity and a skill set that I had not anticipated. As for Bernard-Docker, his calmness under pressure and patience have struck me. It would be easy for a young player to play afraid and conservatively out of fear of self-preservation.
During Saturday night's game against the Kraken, there was one sequence where Kleven pinched in along the half-wall to keep a play alive in the offensive end. The puck squirted past him, but Bernard-Docker made an intelligent read and rotated to his offside, where he kept the puck alive for the Senators and allowed them to regain the zone and sustain offensive pressure.
It is a small sample size of data, but when the eye test holds up, and the results are as good as they have been for Kleven/Bernard-Docker, how can you split that up when all of the quantitative and qualitative evidence portrays Hamonic as being a drag on his defensive partners this season?
Granted, the Senators have been competitive, and their record sits above .500. Hamonic's also a well-liked veteran in the room, with the intangibles that coaches and teammates praise. His actual play, on the other hand, aligns with his recent career history. The unfortunate truth is that when he is off the ice, his team does a more efficient job performing on the ice.
If Travis Green is selling a message about putting the best competitive group on the ice, it would be hard to reconcile having Hamonic in the lineup.