Ottawa Senators: Why Their Last Four Games Hint at Possible Turnaround

Head coach DJ Smith frequently says the club is heading in the right direction. This time, he might be right – if the past four games are any indication.

Throughout most of the season, the Ottawa Senators have consistently reiterated various versions of, "We aren't getting the bounces, but we like how we're playing." However, when watching the Senators through 17 games (8-9-0), it was hard to embrace those claims. They so often had poor starts and terrible second periods, leading to faux comebacks that were always too little too late. 

Rinse and repeat.

In the last four games, the Senators record of 2-2-0 looks the same as their first 17 games – in or around .500 hockey. But when you dig into the numbers, you start to see why head coach DJ Smith is so optimistic, saying this week, "We're trending in the right direction."

When examining the past four games, the Senators have outscored their opponents 13-10, outshot them 148 to 119, and averaged 37 shots on goal and 29.7 against per game. On top of that, they've had very solid goaltending, with a team save percentage of .915 in those games. That includes two standout performances from Anton Forsberg – a 39-save shutout and a 33-save performance. Even with that, the Senators still have the sixth-worst team save percentage in the NHL at .891. If the Senators start getting the goaltending they've had in the past four games, they should be in business.

Meanwhile, Ottawa's scoring rate in the past four games (3.25/game) is lower than their seasonal average (3.43). Yet, their goals against in the past four games is 2.50. If that were their seasonal total, that would be the third-best in the NHL. In reality, the Senators are 18th with 3.29 goals against a game. The Senators have improved their defensive play in the past four games and have finally been able to keep the puck out of their net. The stats suggest they've given up a little offence to be more robust on D.

The good signs continue when you look deeper into the analytics. The Senators' two best lines in terms of expected goals this season are that of their top two: Tarasenko-Stutzle-Batherson have an expected goals percentage of 65%, and Tkachuk-Norris-Giroux are at 64%.

In the past four games, the Senators have the 5th highest expected goals-per-game percentage at 3.73, and the defence has only allowed 2.5 goals a game in the last four games. 

Is that just a case of good goaltending? It doesn't look like it. 

The Senators have had an expected goals allowed of 2.41 per game, which is the second best mark of any NHL team in that four-game span.

The Senators could easily have a better record than 2-2-0 in the past week. But if they continue to play like they have the past four games (and that's a big if), then DJ Smith's remarks about "trending in the right direction" won't just be lip service. 

You'll see it reflected in the NHL standings.