Brady Tkachuk is making his return.

After announcing on his 'Wingmen' podcast last week that he was targeting a return around American Thanksgiving, the Ottawa Senators' captain revealed on this morning's episode that he will be returning on Friday, November 28th, to take on the St. Louis Blues.

"It's only fitting," Brady explained to his brother Matt. "Thursday's Thanksgiving, and I'm just excited to be in St Louis. I'm having all the boys and the trainers to mom and dad's. 

"It's feeling great. Tomorrow the no-contact jersey is coming off, so I'm ready to take some bumps and take some hits. Get a little battle in me, but I'm feeling great. I can't believe I've got six periods left, and then we're back and just a couple more back skates. I've got to get through those. We have to check some boxes, but everything looks good for Friday. The boys have been playing great. I'm just very excited to join them." 

Tkachuk is not wrong; the Senators have played well in his absence. 

Since being unsuspectingly hit from behind by Nashville Predators' Roman Josi on October 13th, the Senators have gone 10-5-4 without Tkachuk. 

A predominant reason for their success is their strong five-on-five play.

In the span of 19 games that Brady has been on the shelf, the Senators have ranked in or near the top 10 in several key metrics according to Natural Stat Trick: 

• 51.51 CF%, 10th
• 51.39 SF%, 10th
• 53.16 GF%, 9th
• 51.56 xGF%, 11th

In other words, the Senators have registered a higher percentage of shots (CF%), shots on goal (SF%), total goals (GF%), and expected goals (xGF%) than their opponents during this stretch.

They have played really well while getting some situational production from players like Nick Cousins and David Perron, who have slotted into Brady's spot in the lineup. In their last 19 games, Cousins has contributed four goals and two assists, while Perron has added two goals and eight assists. On the surface, neither player is a first line player, but over a smaller sample size of games, they have been effective enough to help the Senators win.

A significant reason for their success is how well their other linemates on the first line, Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson, have played.

Tkachuk's injury put the spotlight on Stützle, raising questions about whether the star centre could carry the load and create enough offence without having a dynamic power forward doing a ton of the heavy lifting in front of the net and down low on the cycle. 

Not only has Stützle risen to the occasion, but he has also thrived alongside Batherson. 

Both players have produced at a higher than point-per-game clip in their last 19 games, with most of their production occurring at five-on-five: 

• Stützle: 11 goals, 20 points, nine even-strength goals, 14 even-strength points
• Batherson: seven goals, 20 points, five even-strength goals, 15 even-strength points

Equally impressive are their underlying metrics.

Since October 14th, Stützle and Batherson have logged 187:25

of five-on-five ice time with the Senators generating 55.49 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.33 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 80.00 percent of the total goals (12-3, GF%), and 53.07 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per Natural Stat Trick. 

Their play without Brady has raised an interesting question about what to do with Tkachuk. 

The easiest decision would be to return Brady to his nominal first-line left wing spot, where he has predominantly played with Stützle. Last season, the duo had a lot of success playing with Claude Giroux, but this season, they opened alongside Fabian Zetterlund.

Giroux has since entrenched himself as a staple on the highly effective two-way line with Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto.

Plugging Tkachuk in would slide Perron down and move Lars Eller back to his natural fourth line centre role. Eller has been filling in on a line with Dylan Cozens and Zetterlund while Ridly Greig has been sidelined with an undisclosed injury. 

Alternatively, while considering how well the first line has played in Tkachuk's absence, could the play of Batherson and Stützle afford Travis Green and his staff the opportunity to explore staggering the talent through the lines to create matchup problems for the opposition?

Dylan Cozens' game over the past five games has noticeably improved. 

He looks more assertive and confident in his decision-making at five-on-five, and the numbers bear it out. He ranks in the top five among Senators in goals and points per 60, while generating the second-highest volume of shots and leading the team in individual expected goal rate. 

Cozens has played well across small sample sizes before, but this is some of the best hockey he has played since arriving in Ottawa. The thought of adding a big, physical winger to his line, who can dominate down low and create time and space for his linemates, is intriguing.

The rub is that Tkachuk and Cozens have logged only eight minutes of ice time together since Cozens arrived at last season's trade deadline. Aside from their power play minutes, they do not have much history of playing together. 

That does not mean it cannot work, but it is definitely something to weigh when debating where to place the captain.

Fortunately, Tkachuk's success with Stützle is a luxury the Senators can fall back on if their experiment does not work. 

Considering how well the Pinto and Stützle lines have played in his absence, it may be the opportune time to give Cozens a dynamic linemate, which, in turn, would give the Senators three strong lines that the opposition would have to contend with. 

By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa